Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,727
Political Matrix E: -4.06, S: -6.52
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« on: July 25, 2016, 02:57:04 PM » |
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Suppose between now and election day, everyone eligible to vote is registered, and that they subsequently are all motivated and able to show up to vote, know at least a bit about where all the candidates stand (don't just throw a dart) and can vote for the candidate of their choice. Who wins and by how much? What do the third-partiers get?
You can point to the old adage that in higher-turnout races Democrats do better, but you can also make the argument that this is only for elections that are already around 50-60% turnout. The least likely voters in the US, (the last 25% of holdouts in a 75% turnout election) I would think, are probably more likely to vote third-party.
So here's my guess:
Clinton - 44% Trump - 42% Johnson - 7% Stein - 3% Castle - 1% Other - 3%
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