Ramussen/KNTV: Nevada - Trump +5
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  Ramussen/KNTV: Nevada - Trump +5
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Author Topic: Ramussen/KNTV: Nevada - Trump +5  (Read 2014 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: July 25, 2016, 04:18:19 PM »

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/exclusive-ktnvrasmussen-poll-shows-trump-heck-with-post-gop-convention-leads-in-nevada

Trump  - 43
Clinton - 38
Johnson - 8
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diskymike44
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« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2016, 04:19:57 PM »

I was gonna believe until I seen Rassy.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2016, 04:21:39 PM »

I can see Trump bring tied here after the RNC despite the Rasmussen bias
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2016, 04:22:26 PM »

Only 17% Hispanic. Just wondering, about what percent of the 2012 electorate was Hispanic (I'm sure it'll be higher this year, but I want to know for reference). Nevada was 26.5% Hispanic in the 2010 Census (all, not VAP).
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2016, 04:45:49 PM »

Only 17% Hispanic. Just wondering, about what percent of the 2012 electorate was Hispanic (I'm sure it'll be higher this year, but I want to know for reference). Nevada was 26.5% Hispanic in the 2010 Census (all, not VAP).

Demographics aren't that far off of the 2012 exit polls but no way does Trump get 20% of AAs and 31% of Latinos with 20% undecided in each group
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2016, 04:46:48 PM »

I wish this were true, but this is Rasmussen so it's just a pipe dream.
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Higgs
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« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2016, 04:56:15 PM »

I wish this were true, but this is Rasmussen so it's just a pipe dream.
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2016, 05:06:27 PM »

Would explain why Clinton is still advertising here. Remove the 5 point Rasmussen bias and NV is actually a tossup
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2016, 05:07:20 PM »

Romney never led in a single poll in Nevada in 2016, so while this is definitely too slanted, it suggests that Nevada isn't as gone as some were predicting.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2016, 05:29:05 PM »

lolno
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2016, 05:31:39 PM »

538 factored in convention bounce and bias and found that they still have Trump up 1
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2016, 06:14:43 PM »

ayy
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2016, 07:28:20 PM »

538 factored in convention bounce and bias and found that they still have Trump up 1

     You mean 538 is unskewing polls now? How far Nate Silver has fallen.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2016, 07:33:09 PM »

I was polled over the weekend; I wonder if it was for this?

Anyway, looks like all of Trump's Vegas casino connections are paying off!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2016, 08:42:13 PM »

I don't trust Rasmussen, but I especially don't trust them in a state like Nevada.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2016, 09:37:45 PM »

I think dems really only outperformed considerably in 08 and 10 2012 was only a slight underperformance and 14 was actually a massive GOP overperformance
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #16 on: July 25, 2016, 09:41:44 PM »

 I can also see a lot of potential Hillary voters voting none of the above
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #17 on: July 25, 2016, 11:56:33 PM »

Suspect crosstabs, suspect poll.
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Alcon
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« Reply #18 on: July 26, 2016, 01:26:23 AM »

538 factored in convention bounce and bias and found that they still have Trump up 1

     You mean 538 is unskewing polls now? How far Nate Silver has fallen.

No, they adjust (and always have) for the "house effect" of a pollster.  For instance, if you have a pollster who routinely gets Republican-favorable results in states with a lot of polling (like Ohio), and it's the only pollster active in a less-polled state, they'll adjust for that fact.  It's a totally reasonable method of normalizing state results, so one candidate isn't arbitrarily favored in the prediction just because certain pollsters were the ones active in that state.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #19 on: July 26, 2016, 05:17:31 AM »

Rasmussen wasn't that horrible in 2012 as Red Avatars are bashing.

Final Poll: Rasmussen(Nov 2-4, 2012)  Obama 48%, Romney 49%
Margin of Error(MOE): +-3%
Final Results (Nov 6, 2012)  Obama 51.1%(+3.1%), Romney 47.2%(-1.8%)

1. Obama was on uphill by Sandy (so Obama could add 2~3% during 2-3days)
2. Romney's turnout was worse tha Obama (especially, as exit Poll: Black voter-66%, White voter-64%)

Missread 1.8%~3.1% wasn't that horrible as Red Avatars are bashing Rasmussen everyday.
(unless they did Poll-Plus forecast.)

Especially, TRUMP's turnouts would be much better than Romney for sure.
So in my opinion in 2016, I don't think Rasmussen is overvaluing TRUMP's numbers that much.

It's so weird Red Avatars are always looking down Rasmussen Polls.
(But they never complain of Reuters-Ipsos Poll, Even when they weight Women 60% - Men 39%
Dem 45% - Rep 31% - Ind 12% in this summer.)

P.S. especially even Liberal Nate silver adjusted this Poll as TRUMP +1%.


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GMantis
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« Reply #20 on: July 26, 2016, 12:12:50 PM »

1. Obama was on uphill by Sandy (so Obama could add 2~3% during 2-3days)
Sandy made landfall on the 29th of October. There was plenty of time for a bounce of Obama to be detected, especially on the later days of the polling. Your estimates are baseless.

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This is a meaningless statement. People who didn't vote for either candidate can't be labeled as Obama or Romney voters. In any case, this should have been detected by the polls.

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The misread is nearly five percent. It's a different matter if they believe the result could come closer to what happened, but it makes no statistics to measure deviation from anywhere but the predicted result. With a similar logic, I could claim that there was a deviation of 8 percent, taking the opposite margin of error.

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The poll was made with likely voters.

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So he thinks it's 4 percent more Republican than average. Not very different from the 2012 election.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #21 on: July 26, 2016, 01:48:35 PM »

Empirical evidence suggests Nevada is more competitive than Colorado right now. More at 11.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #22 on: July 26, 2016, 01:56:48 PM »

Empirical evidence suggests Nevada is more competitive than Colorado right now. More at 11.

Empirical evidence suggests that frickin Georgia is more competitive than Nevada right now.  Does that make it so?
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #23 on: July 26, 2016, 01:58:05 PM »

Empirical evidence suggests Nevada is more competitive than Colorado right now. More at 11.

Nevada Demographic Statistics
Hispanic or Latino (of any race): 19.7%

Colorado Demographic Statistis
Hispanic or Latino (of any race): 17.1%

Party Registration - Nevada (active voters)
627,079 Democrats (40.33%)
521,886 Republicans (33.56%)

Party Registration - Colorado (active voters)
980,352 Republicans (32.77)
988,410 Democrats (32.51%)
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JRP1994
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« Reply #24 on: July 26, 2016, 01:59:57 PM »

Empirical evidence suggests Nevada is more competitive than Colorado right now. More at 11.

Empirical evidence suggests that frickin Georgia is more competitive than Nevada right now.  Does that make it so?

Maybe, maybe not. We need to wait for more polling to see.

Also the preponderance of polling data shows Trump with a mid-high single digit lead in Georgia. Not so with Clinton in Nevada.
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