Ramussen/KNTV: Nevada - Trump +5 (user search)
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  Ramussen/KNTV: Nevada - Trump +5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Ramussen/KNTV: Nevada - Trump +5  (Read 2093 times)
Alcon
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Posts: 30,866
United States


« on: July 26, 2016, 01:26:23 AM »

538 factored in convention bounce and bias and found that they still have Trump up 1

     You mean 538 is unskewing polls now? How far Nate Silver has fallen.

No, they adjust (and always have) for the "house effect" of a pollster.  For instance, if you have a pollster who routinely gets Republican-favorable results in states with a lot of polling (like Ohio), and it's the only pollster active in a less-polled state, they'll adjust for that fact.  It's a totally reasonable method of normalizing state results, so one candidate isn't arbitrarily favored in the prediction just because certain pollsters were the ones active in that state.
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