StatesPoll
Jr. Member
Posts: 441
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« on: July 26, 2016, 05:17:31 AM » |
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Rasmussen wasn't that horrible in 2012 as Red Avatars are bashing.
Final Poll: Rasmussen(Nov 2-4, 2012) Obama 48%, Romney 49%
Margin of Error(MOE): +-3%
Final Results (Nov 6, 2012) Obama 51.1%(+3.1%), Romney 47.2%(-1.8%)
1. Obama was on uphill by Sandy (so Obama could add 2~3% during 2-3days)
2. Romney's turnout was worse tha Obama (especially, as exit Poll: Black voter-66%, White voter-64%)
Missread 1.8%~3.1% wasn't that horrible as Red Avatars are bashing Rasmussen everyday.
(unless they did Poll-Plus forecast.)
Especially, TRUMP's turnouts would be much better than Romney for sure.
So in my opinion in 2016, I don't think Rasmussen is overvaluing TRUMP's numbers that much.
It's so weird Red Avatars are always looking down Rasmussen Polls.
(But they never complain of Reuters-Ipsos Poll, Even when they weight Women 60% - Men 39%
Dem 45% - Rep 31% - Ind 12% in this summer.)
P.S. especially even Liberal Nate silver adjusted this Poll as TRUMP +1%.
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