1. Obama was on uphill by Sandy (so Obama could add 2~3% during 2-3days)
Sandy made landfall on the 29th of October. There was plenty of time for a bounce of Obama to be detected, especially on the later days of the polling. Your estimates are baseless.
This is a meaningless statement. People who didn't vote for either candidate can't be labeled as Obama or Romney voters. In any case, this should have been detected by the polls.
The misread is nearly five percent. It's a different matter if they believe the result could come closer to what happened, but it makes no statistics to measure deviation from anywhere but the predicted result. With a similar logic, I could claim that there was a deviation of 8 percent, taking the opposite margin of error.
The poll was made with likely voters.
So he thinks it's 4 percent more Republican than average. Not very different from the 2012 election.
