Landmark Communications/WSB-TV: Georgia - Trump + 2

[Alcon]

Also, people shouldn't lump all college-educated whites in the same brush.

I've seen black paint less mixed than that metaphor

[Adam Griffin]

I always forget between election cycles which GA pollster is absolute garbage and which one is mediocre, but I think Landmark is the mediocre one (and InsiderAdvantage being the garbage one). With that being said, two points:

1) Mark Rountree and other GAGOP operatives have a track record of putting out Dem-friendly polls in the summer; I think in order to scare the party into doing a better job and making sure they don't lose

2) Presidential elections aren't subject to runoffs in Georgia, but usually, you want to see a Democrat at 50 in polls if they're going to win. In this case, that's probably still true even without the runoff, just because of how the race closes in the final weeks; two-third to three-quarters of "undecideds" end up breaking GOP in the end, so unless a Democrat is ahead by 3-5 in the final weeks here, it's likely not going to be a victory

[HillOfANight]

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/07/26/wsb-poll-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-are-in-a-dead-heat-in-georgia/

“A lot of people haven’t grasped the real competitive nature of Georgia statewide elections,” said Mark Rountree, the head of Landmark Communications. “They look at the state of Georgia, which has been heavily controlled by Republicans for more than a decade, and dismiss the fact that changes have occurred and now 37 percent of voters are minorities. It’s created a false sense of security for many Republican political operatives.”

http://sos.ga.gov/elections/TurnoutByDemographics/2008_1104/documentdirect%20ssvrz521_nov_2008.pdf
64.1% white in 2008, 30% black in 2008.

http://sos.ga.gov/elections/TurnoutByDemographics/2012_1106/cfv_age_breakdown_totals_nov_2012.pdf
61.4% white in 2012, 29.9% black in 2012.

http://onlineathens.com/mobile/2016-06-21/georgia-growth-super-concentrated-atlanta-half-states-counties-are-losing

There was a dropoff of 100K whites voting between 2008 and 2012. This looks like it's accelerating as half of GA is losing population.

[henster]

Easy for Dems to get 44-46% in GA but the rest to 50% is a bit harder. We see this all the time, the undecideds are probably whites and indies.

[HillOfANight]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Georgia,_1992
Bill won with 43%...

If Johnson maintains >=5% she won't need 50%