Surprise Republican States

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Mirroring a similar poll by Erc.

[Redban]

By "Maine," is one referring to the whole state, or the 2nd congressional district? I believe the 2nd congressional district, out of all those states, has the best chance of turning Republican this cycle while the state, as a whole, will vote Democrat handily. Historically, Maine's 2nd district has always been accessible. The question is whether one electoral vote is worth the time and money.

Otherwise, Michigan is the answer. McCain was close before the economic collapse, Romney lost by a wide margin because of "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt!", and Bush in 2004 came close. Trump's appeal to blue-collar, working class whites will help him.

Of all the states on this poll, I would rank from most likely to vote Republican to least likely to vote Republican thus:

1). Maine 2nd district
2). Michigan
3). New Mexico
4). Maine
5). Oregon
6). Connecticut
7). New Jersey

Only 1 & 2 will vote Republican this cycle though. The other states require a blowout.

[Xing]

Only ME-02 and MI are plausible, and both are unlikely.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

1. ME-02
2. Michigan
3. Oregon
4. New Jersey
5. Connecticut
6. Maine AL
7. Illinois
8. New Mexico

[Classic Conservative]

I'm confident that Trump is going to win ME-2

[evergreenarbor]

Only ME-02 and MI are plausible, and both are unlikely.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Sorry, I should have specified ME at large.  I'd put ME-02 in a category with New Hampshire and Wisconsin.  Much more likely, making for a much less interesting poll.

[Ljube]

Only ME-02 and MI are plausible, and both are unlikely.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Maine

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Michigan, but with a high third party vote Maine could be a huge surprise election night.

[President Johnson]

Michigan, then Maine. But I would but just Maine-02 ahead of Michigan.

[PeteB]

Michigan is the only plausible choice.  But as with the other poll, the more likely answer is none.

[TDAS04]

Michigan, if any.

[Illiniwek]

As much as it pains me to say it, Michigan. But Hillary recently gained two more voters in Michigan!

[Consciously Unconscious]

Only ME-02 and MI are plausible, and both are unlikely.

[dirks]

Maybe New Mexico. Other than that...none. I'm from NJ and there are still miserable murderous hovels like Paterson, Newark, Camden that Clinton will just rack up the votes in. Plus we've soured on Christie and his style is too Trumpian.

[MT Treasurer]

Michigan and Maine (the entire state). ME-02 wouldn't really come as a surprise to me.

[Suburbia]

Michigan and Maine-2.