Opinion of 538's Current Polls-Only Map
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Author Topic: Opinion of 538's Current Polls-Only Map  (Read 1428 times)
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« on: July 26, 2016, 11:36:18 AM »


Trump/Pence 270, 44.8%
Clinton/Kaine 268, 46.1%
Johnson/Weld 0, 7.7%
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2016, 11:41:17 AM »
Trump ahead of Clinton in Nevada but not Pennsylvania? I guess Nevada is a toss up state this election?
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2016, 11:43:56 AM »
I like the NowCast better Smiley

But Polls Plus is being too conservative for Clinton's MoV
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2016, 11:45:33 AM »
Gar-bagio
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xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2016, 11:49:49 AM »
Based on one poll in NV and guesswork for where it stands right now. It'll be more accurate when there are more polls to work with.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2016, 11:57:23 AM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on July 26, 2016, 11:49:49 AM
Based on one poll in NV and guesswork for where it stands right now. It'll be more accurate when there are more polls to work with.
There are six polls out of nevada actually with trump leads in 4, a tie in one, and clinton up in one. If you adjust the leader as 538 does, clinton leads by 1 point in one and trump leads in the other five
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« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2016, 11:58:57 AM »
Quote from: Silent Cal on July 26, 2016, 11:57:23 AM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on July 26, 2016, 11:49:49 AM
Based on one poll in NV and guesswork for where it stands right now. It'll be more accurate when there are more polls to work with.
There are six polls out of nevada actually with trump leads in 4, a tie in one, and clinton up in one. If you adjust the leader as 538 does, clinton leads by 1 point in one and trump leads in the other five

I meant one (relatively) recent poll.
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Wells
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« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2016, 01:14:28 PM »
It's a horrible map because Clinton wins the popular vote but not the electoral vote. Other than that, it's pretty decent. Donald Trump would probably concede the election to Hillary and urge his electors to be faithless (to Clinton) in this scenario.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2016, 01:50:50 PM »
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on July 26, 2016, 01:14:28 PM
It's a horrible map because Clinton wins the popular vote but not the electoral vote. Other than that, it's pretty decent. Donald Trump would probably concede the election to Hillary and urge his electors to be faithless (to Clinton) in this scenario.

Like Bush did in 2000 when he lost the PV to Gore?
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2016, 02:01:23 PM »
There is no way Trump will when any EV from Maine.

Also, NH is honestly highly doubtful.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2016, 02:07:56 PM »
Interestingly enough, while taking each individual states to their likely outcomes produces a winning map for Trump, the average electoral vote calculations result in 275.6 EV for Clinton and 261.8 for Trump.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2016, 02:28:49 PM »
See my previous comments about NV vs PA as tipping point for Trump.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2016, 03:13:59 PM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on July 26, 2016, 11:36:18 AM


Trump/Pence 270, 44.8%
Clinton/Kaine 268, 46.1%
Johnson/Weld 0, 7.7%

I noticed the updated map this morning.
The map shows the extreme uphill challenge trump has, just to get the minimum of 270 to win it.
Obviously, this is going to be very difficult, with a small probability of success.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2016, 03:21:09 PM »
What's really going to be funny actually is the Hillary can't win Colorado (except against Chris Christie, it goes independent) meme if Trump were to win every swingstate but CO and VA
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #14 on: July 26, 2016, 04:40:40 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 26, 2016, 01:09:07 PM
Cool, I like it. But NH isn't going to happen, so Trump needs either PA or one of WI/MI.
It most certainly CAN happen, though, and not just in a blowout or 49/50 state landslide.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2016, 09:16:48 PM »
Quote from: Clay on July 26, 2016, 02:01:23 PM
There is no way Trump will when any EV from Maine.

Also, NH is honestly highly doubtful.
There has been one poll from there and Trump won the Second by one point but when 538 adjusted the poll he won by seven.
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