The future of Ukraine

[Californiadreaming]

What exactly do you think that Ukraine's future will look like?

[Californiadreaming]

Also, for the record, Ukraine unfortunately currently appears to be one of Europe's poorest countries :



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

[GMantis]

Grim. They've done their best relations with their most obvious and longtime trading partner and replaced it with dubious agreements with the EU which are unlikely to bring any concrete gains for decades. The ultra-nationalist policies adopted by their government will continue to alienate large segments of the population, most obviously those living in the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions which probably won't be rejoining Ukraine any time soon, while distracting the people from the fact that Ukraine is still controlled by the oligarchs. And once the visa requirements for the EU are abolished there will be massive brain drain and and accelerated population decline.

[Californiadreaming]

Grim. They've done their best relations with their most obvious and longtime trading partner and replaced it with dubious agreements with the EU which are unlikely to bring any concrete gains for decades. The ultra-nationalist policies adopted by their government will continue to alienate large segments of the population, most obviously those living in the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions which probably won't be rejoining Ukraine any time soon, while distracting the people from the fact that Ukraine is still controlled by the oligarchs. And once the visa requirements for the EU are abolished there will be massive brain drain and and accelerated population decline.

Thank you very much for your response here, GMantis!

However, I have two questions for you:

1. Do you believe that Ukraine should have joined Russia's Eurasian Economic Union instead?
2. Do you think that Ukraine is likely to experience at least one additional revolution within the next couple of decades?

[Californiadreaming]

Grim. They've done their best relations with their most obvious and longtime trading partner and replaced it with dubious agreements with the EU which are unlikely to bring any concrete gains for decades. The ultra-nationalist policies adopted by their government will continue to alienate large segments of the population, most obviously those living in the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions which probably won't be rejoining Ukraine any time soon, while distracting the people from the fact that Ukraine is still controlled by the oligarchs. And once the visa requirements for the EU are abolished there will be massive brain drain and and accelerated population decline.

Thank you very much for your response here, GMantis!

However, I have two questions for you:

1. Do you believe that Ukraine should have joined Russia's Eurasian Economic Union instead?
2. Do you think that Ukraine is likely to experience at least one additional revolution within the next couple of decades?

Also, one more question:

3. Do you think that Russia is likely to eventually annex the Donbass if Ukraine continues to refuse to agree to Russia's proposal(s) to federalize Ukraine?

[2952-0-0]

Also, for the record, Ukraine unfortunately currently appears to be one of Europe's poorest countries :

Absolutely incredible. Ukraine is lower than Vietnam, Honduras, and the Philippines. Even Belarus has over twice its per capita GDP.

And once the visa requirements for the EU are abolished there will be massive brain drain and and accelerated population decline.

Not happening. If Turkey, with >4 times Ukraine's per capita GDP, is the subject of incessent fearmongering in the EU about migrants taking jobs...

[Californiadreaming]

Also, for the record, Ukraine unfortunately currently appears to be one of Europe's poorest countries :

Absolutely incredible. Ukraine is lower than Vietnam, Honduras, and the Philippines. Even Belarus has over twice its per capita GDP.

Yeah, Ukraine is certainly (and unfortunately) an extreme economic hellhole. Indeed, when one looks at this data, one certainly understands why exactly the EU's Jean-Claude Juncker said that Ukraine will not join the E.U. for at least 20-25 years.

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Not happening. If Turkey, with >4 times Ukraine's per capita GDP, is the subject of incessent fearmongering in the EU about migrants taking jobs...
[/quote][/quote]

Unlike Turks, though, Ukrainians are Christians.

[2952-0-0]

Also, for the record, Ukraine unfortunately currently appears to be one of Europe's poorest countries :

Absolutely incredible. Ukraine is lower than Vietnam, Honduras, and the Philippines. Even Belarus has over twice its per capita GDP.

Yeah, Ukraine is certainly (and unfortunately) an extreme economic hellhole. Indeed, when one looks at this data, one certainly understands why exactly the EU's Jean-Claude Juncker said that Ukraine will not join the E.U. for at least 20-25 years.

I still cannot believe it. Under a good government, Ukraine would be as wealthy as Poland and would already be in the EU. Even under a lousy government, it would have had a bumpy ride like Romania and there would at least be a roadmap to EU membership. It must take a special, God-ordained kind of incompetence and corruption to drag the breadbasket and foundry of the Soviet Union below most actual third world basketcases.

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Not happening. If Turkey, with >4 times Ukraine's per capita GDP, is the subject of incessent fearmongering in the EU about migrants taking jobs...
[/quote]

Unlike Turks, though, Ukrainians are Christians.
[/quote]Admittedly, the EU will be biased towards predominately Christian countries. But just being Christian doesn't prevent anti-migrant sentiment. Just ask any Pole or Romanian in the UK in the past month. So Ukraine won't be granted visa-free travel rights to the EU for a very long time.

If Putin was really shrewd, he would exploit this fact by granting visas to any Ukrainian who asks. He can get his state television to claim these are refugees fleeing the fascist dictatorship in Kiev. If he can't bring Russia to Ukraine, he can bring Ukraine to Russia and accomplish the same thing.

[GMantis]

Sorry for the delay.

Thank you very much for your response here, GMantis!

However, I have two questions for you:

1. Do you believe that Ukraine should have joined Russia's Eurasian Economic Union instead?
2. Do you think that Ukraine is likely to experience at least one additional revolution within the next couple of decades?
3. Do you think that Russia is likely to eventually annex the Donbass if Ukraine continues to refuse to agree to Russia's proposal(s) to federalize Ukraine?

1. No. I think Ukraine should have tried to keep a neutral policy of balance between the EU and Russia. This was probably the most popular policy in Ukraine as well.

2. Difficult to say. The pro-Russian section of Ukraine is very weakened now and the Ukrainian nationalists are united behind the government due to the war. But if the situation in Donbass is ever normalized and it becomes clear at last that the EU hopes are a mirage, then it wouldn't be impossible.

3. Probably not. It's in Putin's interest if this conflict is resolved. And the fact that Putin was not willing to directly take Donbass seems to imply that there will be no annexation.

[GMantis]

And once the visa requirements for the EU are abolished there will be massive brain drain and and accelerated population decline.

Not happening. If Turkey, with >4 times Ukraine's per capita GDP, is the subject of incessent fearmongering in the EU about migrants taking jobs...

They have to give at least something to Ukraine to make it seem that the promises of an EU future is not entirely empty.

If Putin was really shrewd, he would exploit this fact by granting visas to any Ukrainian who asks. He can get his state television to claim these are refugees fleeing the fascist dictatorship in Kiev. If he can't bring Russia to Ukraine, he can bring Ukraine to Russia and accomplish the same thing.

Ukrainians don't require visas to travel to Russia. They are in fact still a large amount of Ukrainians working in Russia, including from nationalist western Ukraine.

[Californiadreaming]

Sorry for the delay.

Thank you very much for your response here, GMantis!

However, I have two questions for you:

1. Do you believe that Ukraine should have joined Russia's Eurasian Economic Union instead?
2. Do you think that Ukraine is likely to experience at least one additional revolution within the next couple of decades?
3. Do you think that Russia is likely to eventually annex the Donbass if Ukraine continues to refuse to agree to Russia's proposal(s) to federalize Ukraine?

1. No. I think Ukraine should have tried to keep a neutral policy of balance between the EU and Russia. This was probably the most popular policy in Ukraine as well.

I don't think that Russia would have actually been willing to tolerate a neutral Ukraine, though.

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OK.

Also, though, out of curiosity--if a new Ukrainian revolution does occur, do you think that it will be a Ukrainian nationalist revolution, a pro-Russian revolution, or a revolution led by an alliance of Ukrainian nationalists and pro-Russian forces (who have agreed to set aside their differences for the time being)?

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The problem is, though, that I don't think that Ukraine will actually agree to Putin's federalization proposal. After all, what Putin appears to be asking for is similar to allowing a U.S. state (such as California, Texas, New York, Florida, et cetera) to veto U.S. ratification of a trade deal, an economic bloc membership, or an alliance.

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Putin didn't annex the Donbass yet because he presumably still wants to federalize Ukraine, though. Frankly, the key question here is whether or not Putin's calculations and views in regards to this will chance if he will conclude that federalizing Ukraine on his own terms is impossible and unrealistic.

Indeed, any thoughts on this?

[Californiadreaming]

Also, for the record, Ukraine unfortunately currently appears to be one of Europe's poorest countries :

Absolutely incredible. Ukraine is lower than Vietnam, Honduras, and the Philippines. Even Belarus has over twice its per capita GDP.

Yeah, Ukraine is certainly (and unfortunately) an extreme economic hellhole. Indeed, when one looks at this data, one certainly understands why exactly the EU's Jean-Claude Juncker said that Ukraine will not join the E.U. for at least 20-25 years.

I still cannot believe it. Under a good government, Ukraine would be as wealthy as Poland

Completely agreed.

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On the path to E.U. membership? Yes, probably. In the E.U.? Probably not--due to Russia's attempts to dominate Ukraine. Indeed, Ukraine appears to have been and still be much more important to Russia and to the Russian psyche than Poland is.

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Completely agreed.

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Frankly, I suspect that a combination of extreme corruption, oligarch domination, and extreme political infighting and bickering has resulted in Ukraine becoming the unfortunate hellhole that it is today.

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Not happening. If Turkey, with >4 times Ukraine's per capita GDP, is the subject of incessent fearmongering in the EU about migrants taking jobs...
[/quote]

Unlike Turks, though, Ukrainians are Christians.
[/quote]Admittedly, the EU will be biased towards predominately Christian countries. But just being Christian doesn't prevent anti-migrant sentiment. Just ask any Pole or Romanian in the UK in the past month. So Ukraine won't be granted visa-free travel rights to the EU for a very long time.[/quote]

Yes, I think that you are (unfortunately) correct in regards to this.

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Completely agreed. Plus, doing this would certainly result in an increase in Russia's population--something which would almost certainly benefit Russia due to Russia's desire to reemerge as a significant world power and global player.

[2952-0-0]

And once the visa requirements for the EU are abolished there will be massive brain drain and and accelerated population decline.

Not happening. If Turkey, with >4 times Ukraine's per capita GDP, is the subject of incessent fearmongering in the EU about migrants taking jobs...

They have to give at least something to Ukraine to make it seem that the promises of an EU future is not entirely empty.

But anti-immigrant sentiment in the EU is surging. And it's not just against brown people: Geert Wilders alternates between hating Muslims on welfare and hating Polish people stealing Dutch jobs. Just one EU member state needs to refuse to support it.

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Ukrainians don't require visas to travel to Russia. They are in fact still a large amount of Ukrainians working in Russia, including from nationalist western Ukraine.
[/quote]
Do Ukrainians have unlimited rights to live and work, though? If not, then granting them such rights would pose an existential risk to any government in Kiev. But, for this plan to work, Russia's economy must prosper and diversity to create enough job openings. Choices, choices...

[Californiadreaming]

And once the visa requirements for the EU are abolished there will be massive brain drain and and accelerated population decline.

Not happening. If Turkey, with >4 times Ukraine's per capita GDP, is the subject of incessent fearmongering in the EU about migrants taking jobs...

They have to give at least something to Ukraine to make it seem that the promises of an EU future is not entirely empty.

But anti-immigrant sentiment in the EU is surging. And it's not just against brown people: Geert Wilders alternates between hating Muslims on welfare and hating Polish people stealing Dutch jobs. Just one EU member state needs to refuse to support it.

It might be greater against non-White people, no?

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Ukrainians don't require visas to travel to Russia. They are in fact still a large amount of Ukrainians working in Russia, including from nationalist western Ukraine.
[/quote]
Do Ukrainians have unlimited rights to live and work, though? If not, then granting them such rights would pose an existential risk to any government in Kiev. But, for this plan to work, Russia's economy must prosper and diversity to create enough job openings. Choices, choices...[/quote]

Well, didn't Russia's economy prosper before the 2008-2009 recession and financial crisis?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Anti-immigration sentiment in Europe is definitely far stronger against Muslims than against Eastern Europeans, 'stealing jobs' or not (which I tend to think is an overrated element of the current anti-immigrant zeitgeist fwiw). Which isn't to say everyone would welcome the Ukraine into the EU with open arms.

[2952-0-0]

It might be greater against non-White people, no?

Bottom line is, it only takes one EU state to refuse to grant travel rights to Ukrainians.

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1) Russia's economy was and still is hopelessly dependent on oil, which simply isn't labour intensive.
2) The price of oil will likely never return to pre-financial crisis levels necessary to stimulate the rest of the economy *and* fund Putin's military expansion plans.
3) Granting Ukrainians the right to work in Russia instantly expands Russia's labour force by 25%. Maybe Putin could order the deportation of the Central Asians who work on Russian construction sites and allow Ukrainians to replace them, but that's asking for far worse trouble down the road.

If he's shrewd and courageous enough to reform Russia's economy to serve the goal of restoring Russia's geopolitical influence, he'll go down in history as a great man comparable to Peter. But, he's had 16 years to do so...

[Californiadreaming]

It might be greater against non-White people, no?

Bottom line is, it only takes one EU state to refuse to grant travel rights to Ukrainians.

Yes, this appears to be correct.

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1) Russia's economy was and still is hopelessly dependent on oil, which simply isn't labour intensive.[/quote]

Agreed.

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Exactly why not, though?

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Wouldn't that only be true if most Ukrainians actually want to work in Russia, though?

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Completely agreed. Indeed, Putin certainly wouldn't want to piss of the various Central Asian countries and thus to cause these countries to turn even further away from Moscow.

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Completely agreed.

[2952-0-0]

Exactly why not, though?

Green energy continues to boom. The world economy isn't as dynamic. China's service sector is growing while its manufacturing sector languishes. The Saudis are offering to reduce production, but only if all OPEC members (read: Iran) limit production likewise; the Iranians refuse and are only interested in regaining the markets they had lost due to the sanctions.

Anything can happen of course. We're always another sh**tstorm in another Muslim country away from $120/barrel, but don't bet the country on it.

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When Ukraine's own economy is so horrible and the EU is unwilling to open its borders, *and* when all Ukrainians speak Russian, it's the least bad of all options.

[Californiadreaming]

Exactly why not, though?

Green energy continues to boom. The world economy isn't as dynamic. China's service sector is growing while its manufacturing sector languishes. The Saudis are offering to reduce production, but only if all OPEC members (read: Iran) limit production likewise; the Iranians refuse and are only interested in regaining the markets they had lost due to the sanctions.

Anything can happen of course. We're always another sh**tstorm in another Muslim country away from $120/barrel, but don't bet the country on it.

OK; fair enough, I suppose.

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When Ukraine's own economy is so horrible and the EU is unwilling to open its borders, *and* when all Ukrainians speak Russian, it's the least bad of all options.
[/quote]

What about nationalism and patriotism, though?

[2952-0-0]

Hunger and unemployment are very powerful motivators.

[Californiadreaming]

Hunger and unemployment are very powerful motivators.

Apparently not powerful enough over the last 25 years, though.

[PresidentSamTilden]

My apologies if this is an inappropriate place for this. But, the situation in Ukraine appears to be escalating, Ukrainian troops placed on high alert. Russia apparently massing troops at the border.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37049313

[pikachu]

My apologies if this is an inappropriate place for this. But, the situation in Ukraine appears to be escalating, Ukrainian troops placed on high alert. Russia apparently massing troops at the border.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37049313

We should have a Ukraine Crisis megathread.

We do.