Donald Trump and the NJ vote

[jman123]

Last time around, in 2012, Hurricane Sandy caused havoc around election day. The state swung hard to obama. This time we have Donald Trump, a neighbor from NYC, a former Atlantic City investor. How do you see the state faring on Election day? How will the Hispanic urban areas vote compared to 2012? Any thoughts on turnout?

  Let us analyze this.

[twenty42]

It will stay in the D+5 to D+7 ballpark. Might flip very narrowly in a huge Trump landslide, but neither campaign will put that much attention into it.

[Ljube]

Trump landslide is very unlikely. Safe D.

[Xing]

LOL, no, NJ is very safe for Hillary.

[Seriously?]

Technically Likely D. It will probably be a 11-15 point win for Hillary! with an outside chance it can go into the lean category (6-10 points).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Leans D until we get more info.  Hillary is probably up 5-8 in New Jersey right now, assuming Trump is up 3-5 nationally.

[Devils30]

You'll see Trump domination on the coasts along with Trump losing ground in places like Somerset, Morris with a high number of college grads.

[Redban]

Obama won big in New Jersey twice -- by 18% in 2012 and by 16% in 2008. However, Hurricane Sandy affected 2012; and 2008 was simply an excellent year for the Democrats (and a horrible year for the GOP).

In a typical environment, the GOP candidate should get around 6-12%, as indicated by John Kerry's modest 6.7% margin of victory in 2004 (240,000 votes). Admittedly, 9/11 assisted Bush that year, but his performance still demonstrates the Republicans' potential to get within 10% in the state. If you factor Trump's ties to the state, then you can reasonably think that Trump will do better than most Republicans.

Overall, New Jersey is similar to Oregon, Washington, and Minnesota or (for the Democrats) Arizona, Georgia, and Indiana. By that statement, I mean that they are states where, in a solid year, the GOP can come close or, in an amazing year, even win by 1% or less.

Trump won't win, but he can significantly outperform McCain and Romney.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Trump's not winning NJ. Or coming close for that matter. Clinton probably wins by 14-16 points, if Trump wins by more than expected then maybe the margin will be around 12%.

[Sir Mohamed]

No way the Trumpster will win NJ. Hillary will beat him by double digits. Likely 57-40% or so.

[Suburbia]

Trump will dominate in Ocean County. Monmouth County, I don't know. It has a lot of upscale whites.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Safe D. Should be narrower than 2012 though.