Reuters/Ipsos Natl: Trump +2

[jaichind]

Reuters/Ipsos National poll
July 22-26

Trump: 39%
Clinton: 37%

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Article: Trump edges ahead of Clinton in U.S. presidential race

[heatcharger]

Ouch. I don't know why pollsters are wasting money polling right now though, why not just wait till next week?

[amdcpus]

Hahaha even Reuters/Ipsos which was consistently +10% - +13% for Clinton has Trump in the lead. Hillbots BTFO.

[cinyc]

Ouch. I don't know why pollsters are wasting money polling right now though, why not just wait till next week?

Don't we want to know the bounce Trump received from the RNC?  How are we going to know if pollsters don't poll this week?

[jaichind]

We are just missing Rasmussen now.  Most likely a bump for Trump there as well.

[OwlRhetoric]

What a swing!

[IceSpear]

inb4 all the Republicans love Reuters now.

[Ljube]

LOL! Even Reuters showing Trump lead.

[Xing]

If you unskewadjust this poll, Trump is actually up by 9.4572!!!!!11!!!!!!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

inb4 all the Republicans love Reuters now.

Junk?

[IceSpear]

Hahaha even Reuters/Ipsos which was consistently +10% - +13% for Clinton has Trump in the lead. Hillbots BTFO.

Gloating over a convention bounce? This must be your first election. Enjoy the egg on your face shortly.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Enjoy your Trump bounce Trumpets.

[Likely Voter]

Note that this is LV, previously Reuters/Ipsos would report out their RV number, but I guess after the conventions they switch to LV. Last week's reported poll (RV) was Clinton +4.

Also from the article (assuming from their LV model)...

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[Seriously?]

Note that this is LV, previously Reuters/Ipsos would report out their RV number, but I guess after the conventions they switch to LV. Last week's reported poll (RV) was Clinton +4.

Also from the article (assuming from their LV model)...

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They don't have polling explorer loaded yet, but LV was trending to the left of RV last week, IIRC, it flipped during the convention.

Trump was down by 15 amongst LV on July 14 in this poll. So Reuters came back down to Earth very quickly.

[nm825]

But muh "CNN/ORC is an outlier!"

[Ebsy]

Tied 38-38 with RVs. Also, interesting that even when Trump is leading he still can't get over 40% of the vote.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is legitimately concerning.

Not really.

[Seriously?]

This poll continues to not make much sense.

2-way Likely Voters
Trump 40.2%
Clinton 38.5%
Neither/Other 13.1%
Refused 6.9%
Wouldn't Vote 1.2%

2-way Registered Voters
Trump 38.3%
Clinton 37.6%
Neither/Other 14.4%
Refused 7.4%
Wouldn't Vote 2.3%

4-way Likely Voters
Clinton 39.9%
Trump 37.0%
Johnson 6.7%
Stein 3.1%
Neither/Other 4.1%
Refused 7.2%
Wouldn't Vote 1.9%

4-way Registered Voters
Clinton 37.6%
Trump 36.2%
Johnson 7.2%
Stein 3.2%
Neither/Other 4.8%
Refused 8.0%
Wouldn't Vote 3.0%

[Seriously?]

This is legitimately concerning.

Not really.

A 17 point swing in a week isn't concerning to you? 

It's a little more than a week, but this poll has been giving out wacky outlier results for a while now. It's only just begun to swing back to anywhere remotely close to reality. I am a bit puzzled by the RV/LV lean to the right on the 2-way ballot, but lean to the left on the 4-way ballot. It's almost like the sample isn't the same voters.

[jaichind]

This is legitimately concerning.

Not really.

A 17 point swing in a week isn't concerning to you? 

A lot of it is just regression to the mean

[SherlockHound]

Tied 38-38 with RVs. Also, interesting that even when Trump is leading he still can't get over 40% of the vote.

More people need to be talking about this. I'm really interested to see how the 20% of undecided voters will break. I assume at least 5% of them are Bernie supporters who have yet to come home.

What were the percentages of undecided voters before the DNC convention in 2008? I doubt it was anywhere near this large of a number.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is legitimately concerning.

Not really.

A 17 point swing in a week isn't concerning to you? 

No, because no serious poll would swing that hard, that fast, regardless.

[jaichind]

In 2012, after the RNC, Romney peaked at a tie with Obama on the RCP average after being down by 3% 2 weeks before the RNC ended .  Romney never exceeded Obama on RCP average by more than 1% the entire 2012 election.  Trump already exceeded that by being up 1.1 as of today after being down by 4.7 2 weeks before the end of the RNC and it could go up more if and when Rasmussen comes in with their poll.  It is clear that Trump's bounce is greater than Romney and all things equal Trump will most likely outperform Romney even if he ends up losing.

[SherlockHound]

In 2012, after the RNC, Romney peaked at a tie with Obama on the RCP average after being down by 3% 2 weeks before the RNC ended .  Romney never exceeded Obama on RCP average by more than 1% the entire 2012 election.  Trump already exceeded that by being up 1.1 as of today after being down by 4.7 2 weeks before the end of the RNC and it could go up more if and when Rasmussen comes in with their poll.  It is clear that Trump's bounce is greater than Romney and all things equal Trump will most likely outperform Romney even if he ends up losing.

The way this election has been so far, I could see Trump winning a squeaker or losing in a landslide 359-179. Trump, just like the polls, has been so unpredictable that any kind of traditional methodology we use to predict elections is questionable.

[Representative simossad]

The difference between 2012 and 2016 is that the people decided on Romney or Obama because they liked the candidates and their political stances, while this election is all about chosing the lesser of two evils.