Predict Clinton's convention bounce, based on Tuesday night

[The Other Castro]

Clinton will start leading by 5 points again soon enough.

[Likely Voter]

It shouldn't be surprising Trump got a decent bounce because this year there are more than  twice as many people saying they are undecided or going to vote third party. So both Trump and Clinton have a bigger pool of people to bring in with their conventions.  So I would say 4-5% depending on how the rest of the week goes

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Negative bounce (though not just from Tuesday night).

The planned coronation is coming off as tone-deaf, and the leaked DNC emails are doing more damage to her campaign than the whole Libya plus private server thing. And the attacks by Islamic terrorists in Europe only help Trump. Neither does picking a pro-TPP VP while McAuliffe assures us she'll do an about-face after the election.

It's increasingly looking like the only lesson she and her team learned from 2008 was that they needed to rig the primaries to make sure she won.  Right now, the D's game plan appears to be to march to another coronation in November with a sort of manic determination mixed with delusional ignorance. (Which they're now on track to lose, incredible as that seems.)

[Illiniwek]

Hillary does best when she is not there.

Hillary does best when they stop letting Fox News and donald trump shape the conversation about her.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Hillary does best when she is not there.

Hillary does best when they stop letting Fox News and donald trump shape the conversation about her.

Maybe if the DNC was run by competent operators instead of corrupt sycophants they could have done that. Too late now though.

[Eraserhead]

0%-1%, I don't see much of a bounce.