What percentage of the popular vote will Gary Johnson get?

[amdcpus]

What percentage of the popular vote will Gary Johnson get?

[Human]

2%

[Devout Centrist]

2%, just like my milk.

[evergreenarbor]

Something like 5 to 7 percent. Mid-to-high single digits.

[Illiniwek]

2%, just like my milk.

See I actually like skim... <1%

[Oak Hills]

3%

[Higgs]

2%

[Maxwell]

2-2.5%, maximum.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm fairly confident he can get 2%, but an optimistic 3% is very realistic. His poll numbers have been consistent and steady, he already has twice the name recognition that he did in 2012, its very hard to see 80% of his support just going away.

[amdcpus]

I'm fairly confident he can get 2%, but an optimistic 3% is very realistic. His poll numbers have been consistent and steady, he already has twice the name recognition that he did in 2012, its very hard to see 80% of his support just going away.

I'm thinking 8%. He got 1% last election and according to Google Trends, he is being searched 10x times more this election.

[Maxwell]

I'm fairly confident he can get 2%, but an optimistic 3% is very realistic. His poll numbers have been consistent and steady, he already has twice the name recognition that he did in 2012, its very hard to see 80% of his support just going away.

it did in 2012.

[amdcpus]

I'm fairly confident he can get 2%, but an optimistic 3% is very realistic. His poll numbers have been consistent and steady, he already has twice the name recognition that he did in 2012, its very hard to see 80% of his support just going away.

it did in 2012.

Eh he was only included in 1 poll though.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm fairly confident he can get 2%, but an optimistic 3% is very realistic. His poll numbers have been consistent and steady, he already has twice the name recognition that he did in 2012, its very hard to see 80% of his support just going away.

it did in 2012.

Can you point me to a poll where he was at 10% or more in 2012?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

3% max

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Roughly 3%, however I think he has an outside chance of getting upwards of 5% of the vote.

[Vosem]

He has never been under 4% in any national poll conducted since the Trump nomination that mentioned him, so I would say 4% seem pretty well determined to vote for him. (His high, reached in the CNN poll last week, was 13%). If you really think his support will melt away leaving only bare bones, 4% seems like a decent estimate for those bare bones. Pessimistically I voted for 4%, though I happen to think the distribution of possibilities for Johnson has a very long tail.

(Stein, by contrast, has managed to score 0% in some national polls that she was included in, though she has a not-bad high of 7%).

[Maxwell]

I'm fairly confident he can get 2%, but an optimistic 3% is very realistic. His poll numbers have been consistent and steady, he already has twice the name recognition that he did in 2012, its very hard to see 80% of his support just going away.

it did in 2012.

Can you point me to a poll where he was at 10% or more in 2012?

How about 6%?

Bob Barr hit 5% in the polls and managed 0.4% of the vote, so it's really inconsistent.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm fairly confident he can get 2%, but an optimistic 3% is very realistic. His poll numbers have been consistent and steady, he already has twice the name recognition that he did in 2012, its very hard to see 80% of his support just going away.

it did in 2012.

Can you point me to a poll where he was at 10% or more in 2012?

How about 6%?

Bob Barr hit 5% in the polls and managed 0.4% of the vote, so it's really inconsistent.

OK, but how well known was Barr or Johnson in 2008 or 2012? Johnson has about 25% name recognition in 2016 so far. Google Trends shows he is already searched 41% more than his peak in November 2012, and 20 times more than this point in 2012!

Not to mention not many polls included any third party candidates in the past, this is the first year third party candidates have been included in most polls. So there's just no comparison.

[Senator-elect Spark]

2.23%