Latino Decisions Battleground Poll (July 18-22)
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  Latino Decisions Battleground Poll (July 18-22)
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Author Topic: Latino Decisions Battleground Poll (July 18-22)  (Read 545 times)
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« on: July 27, 2016, 01:34:36 PM »

Toplines.

Clinton: 71
Trump: 24

This is a poll of Latinos in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan,
North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. I would expect Trump do be doing better with this subsample than Latinos nationally.

The crosstabs also reveal there is a massive gap between English speakers and Spanish speakers.
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Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2016, 01:36:13 PM »

Wow he's gone up a lot
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2016, 01:37:43 PM »

No he hasn't? This was taken at the same time as the national survey that showed him down 61.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2016, 02:06:31 PM »

To me this is confirming that polls that do not have a Spanish speaking option are missing out on a very strong, determined, and passionate group of supporters for Hillary Clinton. I don't know how many points you'd need to add to correct for that, but it's starting to look substantial.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2016, 02:44:54 PM »

That lead isn't as large as the other polls have shown, but it was taken during the RNC, and if Hillary does win by that much, it'll probably be enough for her to win.
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afleitch
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« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2016, 02:57:33 PM »

That lead isn't as large as the other polls have shown, but it was taken during the RNC, and if Hillary does win by that much, it'll probably be enough for her to win.

Except you have no numbers regarding turnout among Hispanics (esp. compared to non-Hispanic whites).

Even if turnout remains the same, there are more of them from the voting pool compared to four years ago.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2016, 03:34:25 PM »

That lead isn't as large as the other polls have shown, but it was taken during the RNC, and if Hillary does win by that much, it'll probably be enough for her to win.

This is a poll of Latinos from battleground states. So it takes out favorable states like California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois (and slightly unfavorable in Texas) for Clinton. So it makes sense that it would be a bit narrower.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2016, 04:12:39 PM »

That lead isn't as large as the other polls have shown, but it was taken during the RNC, and if Hillary does win by that much, it'll probably be enough for her to win.

This is a poll of Latinos from battleground states. So it takes out favorable states like California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois (and slightly unfavorable in Texas) for Clinton. So it makes sense that it would be a bit narrower.

I would think New York would be less favorable. I don't know enough about Texas, but my guess there would be more favorable (unless "White Hispanic" is higher than I'm expecting). I don't see presidential year crosstabs for these very often though so there's some guesswork.
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ag
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« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2016, 04:16:33 PM »

That lead isn't as large as the other polls have shown, but it was taken during the RNC, and if Hillary does win by that much, it'll probably be enough for her to win.

This is a poll of Latinos from battleground states. So it takes out favorable states like California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois (and slightly unfavorable in Texas) for Clinton. So it makes sense that it would be a bit narrower.

I would think New York would be less favorable. I don't know enough about Texas, but my guess there would be more favorable (unless "White Hispanic" is higher than I'm expecting). I don't see presidential year crosstabs for these very often though so there's some guesswork.

NY Latinos tend to be extremely Dem even in normal times. Few Cubans, mostly Dominicans and Puerto Ricans - both groups have always voted more like Blacks than like Hispanics, at least in NY.  I mean, look at East Harlem.

Texas Latinos are a mixed bag. And Texas Republicans have been doing relatively good with some of them.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2016, 04:17:52 PM »

That lead isn't as large as the other polls have shown, but it was taken during the RNC, and if Hillary does win by that much, it'll probably be enough for her to win.

This is a poll of Latinos from battleground states. So it takes out favorable states like California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois (and slightly unfavorable in Texas) for Clinton. So it makes sense that it would be a bit narrower.

I would think New York would be less favorable. I don't know enough about Texas, but my guess there would be more favorable (unless "White Hispanic" is higher than I'm expecting). I don't see presidential year crosstabs for these very often though so there's some guesswork.
2012 exit poll had Romney with 11% of the Latino vote in New York vs. 27% nationwide. There wasn't an exit poll conducted in Texas.
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dspNY
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« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2016, 04:21:58 PM »

Colorado and Nevada are blue with those #s
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