Latino Decisions Battleground Poll (July 18-22)

[Ebsy]

Toplines.

Clinton: 71
Trump: 24

This is a poll of Latinos in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan,
North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. I would expect Trump do be doing better with this subsample than Latinos nationally.

The crosstabs also reveal there is a massive gap between English speakers and Spanish speakers.

[Ebsy]

Wow he's gone up a lot

No he hasn't? This was taken at the same time as the national survey that showed him down 61.

[Ebsy]

That lead isn't as large as the other polls have shown, but it was taken during the RNC, and if Hillary does win by that much, it'll probably be enough for her to win.

This is a poll of Latinos from battleground states. So it takes out favorable states like California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois (and slightly unfavorable in Texas) for Clinton. So it makes sense that it would be a bit narrower.

I would think New York would be less favorable. I don't know enough about Texas, but my guess there would be more favorable (unless "White Hispanic" is higher than I'm expecting). I don't see presidential year crosstabs for these very often though so there's some guesswork.

2012 exit poll had Romney with 11% of the Latino vote in New York vs. 27% nationwide. There wasn't an exit poll conducted in Texas.