Were you shocked by the size of TRUMP's convention bounce?
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  Were you shocked by the size of TRUMP's convention bounce?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Were you shocked by the size of TRUMP's convention bounce?  (Read 1120 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: July 27, 2016, 04:37:49 PM »
Did you see the size of Trump's convention bounce coming or were you shocked that it was as big as it was?

I for one, underestimated it, I thought at most it would be +1 but I thought it was going to be a negative bounce, with Trump bleeding a few points.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2016, 04:38:51 PM »
Exactly what I expected. I'm sure the DNC bump will pretty much take us back to square one (consistent but also constantly weak Clinton lead).
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2016, 04:39:45 PM »
Half the polls show a bump, half dont.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2016, 04:42:32 PM »
Saw it coming and predicted it.
The DNC has been going very well, way more so than the RNC.
So I also see Hillary leading once again, after a week or two with new polls.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
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« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2016, 04:43:51 PM »
Yes very. The fact people support him is just shocking.
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PeteB
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« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2016, 05:14:30 PM »
No:

Quote from: PeteB on July 21, 2016, 10:51:51 PM
The speech will definitely help Trump. It was focused, disciplined, covered a lot of ground and wooed varied constituencies. He didn't degenerate to the baser instincts and focused on visions of a better country.

Of course his premise is still wrong, the promises were made without a clear idea of how to achieve them and there were quite a few statements that contradicted each other.

However all that is for another day. Tonight he did well and will definitely get a bounce out of it!
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2016, 05:16:43 PM »
Quote from: ChairmanSanchez on July 27, 2016, 04:38:51 PM
Exactly what I expected. I'm sure the DNC bump will pretty much take us back to square one (consistent but also constantly weak Clinton lead).
Trump's domination of the news cycle this week and the severe negative press the convention is getting is making me think she might not get one or might get a minimal one that will leave it tied or with a slight trump lead.
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2016, 05:16:59 PM »
A bit surprised, yes. It's hard to imagine these conventions swaying people either way with unfavorables for both candidates so high. I thought both convention bounces would be weak. Looks like the old bump is holding up so far, and now I'm thinking Hillary will get a similar one.
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windjammer
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« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2016, 05:18:21 PM »
No

According to Huffington Post, Clinton's lead went from +3 to +1 basically,
A +2  bounce was clearly not unexpected.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2016, 05:20:10 PM »
Quote from: Chief Justice windjammer on July 27, 2016, 05:18:21 PM
No

According to Huffington Post, Clinton's lead went from +3 to +1 basically,
A +2  bounce was clearly not unexpected.

Probably because they don't use tracking polls like LAT/USC, which is the main source of the Trump bump on RCP.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2016, 05:22:29 PM »
I was expecting him to dip until the nominating speech, after which I expected a slight bump or no change. I didn't expect a bump this large, though.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2016, 05:36:29 PM »
Wouldn't it a lot have to do with Clinton's email stuff returning to the spotlight at the same time? And the DNC leak?
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2016, 05:48:26 PM »
Not at all. It was expected.
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skoods
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« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2016, 05:48:55 PM »
Not as shocked as I was by the size of his hands.
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musicblind
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« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2016, 05:53:51 PM »
I was pretty shocked. By conventional standards, that was not what a successful RNC is supposed to look like.

Then again, this whole year has been full of surprises.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2016, 05:54:44 PM »
It's the miracle of low expectations. That's why it's so surprising.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: July 27, 2016, 05:57:26 PM »
No, because there is mixed evidence as to just how big the bounce was.
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Ljube
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« Reply #17 on: July 27, 2016, 06:23:43 PM »
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #18 on: July 27, 2016, 06:25:24 PM »
Quote from: ChairmanSanchez on July 27, 2016, 04:38:51 PM
Exactly what I expected. I'm sure the DNC bump will pretty much take us back to square one (consistent but also constantly weak Clinton lead).
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Fargobison
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« Reply #19 on: July 27, 2016, 06:26:43 PM »
I was more confused over how some polls showed a yuge bounce while others didn't.
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fldemfunds
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« Reply #20 on: July 27, 2016, 06:29:53 PM »
The convention bounce has a median of +1. I don't know why everyone is freaking out.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/07/25/the-polls-are-always-bouncing-to-the-left-and-to-the-right/
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #21 on: July 27, 2016, 08:05:05 PM »
It's hard to tell which poll is working:

http://96.127.53.23/election/

That cannot be for real.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #22 on: July 27, 2016, 08:06:29 PM »
Quote from: Castro on July 27, 2016, 05:20:10 PM
Quote from: Chief Justice windjammer on July 27, 2016, 05:18:21 PM
No

According to Huffington Post, Clinton's lead went from +3 to +1 basically,
A +2  bounce was clearly not unexpected.

Probably because they don't use tracking polls like LAT/USC, which is the main source of the Trump bump on RCP.

Nor should they, they're too prone to sudden jumps.
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Xing
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« Reply #23 on: July 27, 2016, 08:08:12 PM »
It's a bit larger than I expected, but a bounce was to be expected.
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Blue3
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« Reply #24 on: July 27, 2016, 08:36:34 PM »
What bounce?
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