Will Clinton recreate the Obama coalition?

[Spark]

[Mr. Smith]

She'll try.

[Kevin]

She'll try.

But she can't for the most part.

Then again there is a strong possibility that she doesn't need to do so in order to win.

[Maxwell]

Yes. She'll hold on to it.

[Suburbia]

She'll try.

She might recreate the Obama coalition..some of them may sit out (places like Pa, Ohio, N.Y.) because Obama's not on the ballot. The millennials (some of them), African Americans, Latinos might turn out for her in November.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes. She'll hold on to it.

Yes, because he'll be out there to make sure she does.

[Maxwell]

Not only that, but part of his coalition will grow substantially.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Clinton already has the overwhelming support of minorities, so "recreating" it would be unnecessary...

[ElectionsGuy]

She'll hold on to most of it, some just may not turn out for her (thinking specifically, young blacks may be a problem here). She may lose a few votes to Stein due to #Bernieorbust (or whatever it is), then she may lose whatever moderate non-college whites that remain voting Democrat. But she'll probably add a slightly higher percentage of Hispanic, Asian, and 'other' voters, while very much improving among Obama with college-educated whites. The net gain or loss is not much either way.

[Camaro33]

She will take the same demographics albeit at lower quantities.

The Democrat share of the youth vote, in particular, will be much lower than Obama. I expect this to be the main difference. A lot of this group will vote third party (Stein or Johnson), stay home, and a small but notable percentage will vote Trump. This is the "Bernie or bust" demographic. Most voted Obama both times (for those who were old enough), many are new to politics (voting age or got interested because of Bernie or Trump), but a ton of these voters of these will not vote Clinton.

I also expect Clinton to have a lower African American turnout and share of the vote overall than Obama. I think this is widely agreed on. This will be a slight shift away from her, but significant overall in shear numbers of votes.

I do however, expect Clinton to maintain or beat Obama with Hispanics with Trump on the ticket, albeit not by much in terms of share and turnout. This won't matter anywhere, however, except in Florida.

Overall, I am expecting a nail biter election. The Obama coalition is weaker for Clinton, and Trump voters are excited to vote for Trump. Given the D/R gap in previous elections, and the enthusiasm Trump creates and lack thereof for Hillary, I expect the gap to shrink significantly.

[Suburbia]

Will the militant BLM crew turn out? I don't know.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

She will take the same demographics albeit at lower quantities.

The Democrat share of the youth vote, in particular, will be much lower than Obama. I expect this to be the main difference. A lot of this group will vote third party (Stein or Johnson), stay home, and a small but notable percentage will vote Trump. This is the "Bernie or bust" demographic. Most voted Obama both times (for those who were old enough), many are new to politics (voting age or got interested because of Bernie or Trump), but a ton of these voters of these will not vote Clinton.

I also expect Clinton to have a lower African American turnout and share of the vote overall than Obama. I think this is widely agreed on. This will be a slight shift away from her, but significant overall in shear numbers of votes.

I do however, expect Clinton to maintain or beat Obama with Hispanics with Trump on the ticket, albeit not by much in terms of share and turnout. This won't matter anywhere, however, except in Florida.

Overall, I am expecting a nail biter election. The Obama coalition is weaker for Clinton, and Trump voters are excited to vote for Trump. Given the D/R gap in previous elections, and the enthusiasm Trump creates and lack thereof for Hillary, I expect the gap to shrink significantly.

I think you're massively underestimating this.

[Xing]

She'll keep most of it, and probably pick up some new voters as well.

[Stockdale for Veep]

I expect an increase in hispanic turnout to erase any other demo losses.

If we vote, we can't lose.

[Ljube]

LOL, no!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

LOL, no!

You're in for a pretty bad November 8 if you think that.

[IceSpear]

Blacks love Hillary almost as much as they love Obama. This has become plainly obvious. They will not be a problem. Hispanics will not be a problem thanks to Trump, she'll most likely even improve on Obama. Her biggest problem is the young white millennials who may stay home or vote third party. She needs to staunch that bleeding as best as possible. Her other problem is that she's sure to fall among white men, particularly those with no college education, but this can be countered by improving among college educated white women.

[OneJ]

Blacks love Hillary almost as much as they love Obama. This has become plainly obvious. They will not be a problem. Hispanics will not be a problem thanks to Trump, she'll most likely even improve on Obama. Her biggest problem is the young white millennials who may stay home or vote third party. She needs to staunch that bleeding as best as possible. Her other problem is that she's sure to fall among white men, particularly those with no college education, but this can be countered by improving among college educated white women.

This.

1. I think people really are underestimating Black turnout in Hillary's favor. Trump would likely accelerate turnout among this particular subgroup (at least slightly)

2. I am 100% sure that Latino turnout and margin for Hillary will increase, especially when we're dealing with Trump obviously. Like the AA community, Hillary does share a strong bond with the Latino community as well. Now if only they would vote like African Americans, Georgia and Arizona could flip in the near future (if not in this election).

3. The subgroup of Asian Americans are very likely to increase their margin for Hillary as well due to the clear trend.

4. It'll be interesting to see if Hillary can take the College-educated White vote though. It's hard to say at this point.

5. The only concern is how Millennials will turn out. There is no doubt that the ones who do will vote for Hillary heavily (even if they were Bernie supporters). The problem is that they turn out to the polls much lower than previous generations. I'm not too concerned with them voting for Attention Seeker Stein (a.k.a. A.S.S.) since polls tend to show that there is a lot more unity than what the media, Reddit, Twitter, etc. wants us to believe there acutually is.

[Virginiá]

Good stuff. I would also like to add to your points:

1. I think people really are underestimating Black turnout in Hillary's favor. Trump would likely accelerate turnout among this particular subgroup (at least slightly)

African American turnout had already been increasing prior to 2008 and Obama definitely supercharged that trend. Given past trends, midterm data and studies showing people who vote once tend to vote again, reinforcing the habit every time they vote, I'd say African American turnout will either stay static, increase a tiny bit due to Trump, or at worst, decrease a tiny bit (as in 1% or so)

We should also remember that African Americans have been riled up by police abuse the past few years, and this could translate into sustained or even increased turnout, relative to 2012. However, given how high it already is, I'm inclined to believe that it'll remain at 2012 levels rather than increase, though I wouldn't rule it out.

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I don't think there is any doubt about this. There are massive voter registration efforts at the moment and we are indeed seeing surges in registration. Hispanic turnout is already rather low, so there is much room for improvement.

The only issue I see is that almost half of eligible Hispanic voters are Millennials, and Hispanic Millennials have some of, if not thee worst turnout rates, so they could dampen turnout averages even if there is a surge.

Also worth considering is that the Hispanic population is growing fast, so even with minimal turnout improvements, there will be substantially more Hispanic voters this cycle vs 2012, just based on population growth alone.

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Polls seem to consistently show significantly weakened support for Trump. IIRC, Romney won white college educated voters @ 56%, and now Clinton either ties or leads, so this is a remarkable realignment of support - Not entirely unexpected, either. There have been existing trends, but Trump has poured gasoline on this fire.

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Millennial turnout in 2012 was, I think, 45%~ which by historical standards is not exceptional, so there is room for improvement here as well. Available data actually suggests that this year could see higher turnout than 2012, possibly reaching 2008 levels (depending on how you interpret the polls):

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2016/07/08-clinton-trump-increase-voter-turnout-galston

The question "Have you thought about this election a lot?" seems to have a loose but steady correlation with the final turnout numbers, and right now that question is 8% higher than 2008. There are other questions that give hints, but I think at the very least it looks like we will at least maintain 2012 levels, if not between 2012 - 2008.

Also noteworthy (imo) is that many groups, particularly NextGen, are investing heavily into turning out Millennials. Steyer alone has committed 25 million dollars to turning out Millennials in battleground states that have competitive Senate races.

[Adam Griffin]

It depends on what you mean by "the Obama Coalition". Personally (and I wrote a very lengthy post about this on AAD, after somebody tried to claim that the Obama Coalition was the "core" of the party), I consider the Obama Coalition to be the added elements that were not voting for Democrats (or voting at all) prior to 2008. I do not consider the entirety of the Democratic electorate in 2008 and beyond to be the Obama Coalition. The Obama Coalition as it emerged in 2008 was likely created by equal parts of increased turnout and shifts in support.

Black Voters: Support - Likely will not drop back to the 89-90% D mark where it resided prior to 2008. I'm expecting it to be somewhere between 91-93% D; basically halfway in between 2004 & 2008. A lot of people forget that the black electorate is disproportionately female. In the Deep South, females comprise more than 60% of black voters. This is in many ways just as exciting of an election for these females as 2008 & 2012 were. I expect black females will support Clinton by the same margins as they did Obama in 2012. Since they are definitely more than half of the national black electorate, the swings among black males toward the GOP will not move the needle a whole lot.

Black Voters: Turnout - I expect turnout as a whole to be down a bit, and the same for black voters. It won't be by a whole lot - black voters are actually very reliable voters even in midterms once they begin voting with any regular frequency - but it'll probably resemble whatever the overall change in turnout for the entire country does.

Latino Voters: Support & Turnout - Will be more Democratic and the increase in turnout may be larger than it was between 2004-2008. This group will either outperform or outright defy the national trends and those of almost every other group.

Women: Support & Turnout - Will be more Democratic. Turnout may be down compared to 2012, but it'll closely resemble whatever the national trend is and therefore women will retain their lean-majority share of the electorate.

Millennials: Support - At this point, this generation can't drop below 55% Democratic and it was 60% for Obama in 2012 (66% in 2008). This is where the largest amount of disgruntled behavior resides in terms of animosity toward Clinton, but I really don't believe it's exceptional in terms of defying decades of political bitching where people say they won't support a candidate and then largely end up doing so. Trump is just so antithetical to them. I expect Clinton will get the 60%. And she'll get it because...

Millennials: Turnout - The Millennial bloc is growing so rapidly in terms of eligible voters that even if a fair share of whiny folks decide not to show up or show up and vote for a third party, it's not going to matter much. We're now reaching the point where the share of Millennials in the electorate is really going to start ramping up as many of them enter their 30s and even are preparing to cross the 40-mark; this is when generations tend to start "coming online" in terms of really voting their weight. You very well may have a situation in which Millennial turnout (% of registered voters) is lower than 2012, but the number of Millennial voters is several million more than it was four years ago.

Suburbanites: Support & Turnout - Suburbanites have very high rates of voter registration and participation, and aren't the types who are going to be convinced to stay home because of any one particular contest. I expect their turnout figures will be on par with 2012. Support for Clinton will be better than it was in 2012, largely because of women.