Is Oregon a legitimate battleground state now?

[OwlRhetoric]

Not going to call it a toss up unless polls keep showing it close. Maybe downgraded to Lean (D) if a few more polls show Hillary at +5 or less.

[Wells]

[Tender Branson]

State polling through the conventions is very bouncy and should be ignored.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Oregon is the least religious state in the Union by measures of church attendance, etc.  The rejection of the GOP's Religious Right is what propelled moderate-to-liberal Oregon into the Democratic column in all elections, and I don't think Trump can reverse that trend.  The timber workers in Eastern Oregon have been a Republican constituency forever.  There are not the kind of white working class voters disaffected with the Democrats in Oregon that will push the needle.

[JRP1994]

Likely D state is Likely D

[Redban]

If NH is, then yeah, so is OR.

Oregon 2012: Obama 12.09+
New Hampshire: 5.58+

Oregon 2008: Obama 16.4+
New Hampshire 2008: Obama 9.61+

Oregon 2004: Kerry 4.2+
New Hampshire 2004: Kerry 1.4+

Oregon is twice as Democratic as New Hampshire is, and it is also much bigger, which means more resources are required to contest it.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If NH is, then yeah, so is OR.

Oregon 2012: Obama 12.09+
New Hampshire: 5.58+

Oregon 2008: Obama 16.4+
New Hampshire 2008: Obama 9.61+

Oregon 2004: Kerry 4.2+
New Hampshire 2004: Kerry 1.4+

Oregon is twice as Democratic as New Hampshire is, and it is also much bigger, which means more resources are required to contest it.

Very true.

New Hampshire's Democrats have come to terms with the anti-tax strain of New Hampshire's voters, but New Hampshire's Republicans have not come to terms with the rejection of the Religious Right of New Hampshire's voters, that rejection extending to a significant swath of Republicans.

[Mallow]

Of course not. Don't be silly.

[wjx987]

If you want to call it a swing state, then it's like Pennsylvania, a state where the votes are close but one that will always go Democrat. In fact, Oregon has had a longer streak for the Dems than Pennsylvania has.

[Xing]

If we're calling Oregon a swing state, we have to call Kentucky a swing state as well.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=240543.0

[windjammer]

No lol

[IceSpear]

If we're calling Oregon a swing state, we have to call Kentucky a swing state as well.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=240543.0

At least that poll was not a Republican internal, so if anything it was more credible, lol.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Wait until a definitely legitimate pollster comes in. It isn't wise to dismiss something like this completely because it doesn't conform to trends. Lean D for now.