How can Trump win PA?

[Senator-elect Spark]

With Kaine on the ticket he will likely help Hillary in the Phila suburbs and among college educated voters.

[Redban]

With Kaine on the ticket he will likely help Hillary in the Phila suburbs and among college educated voters.

Just as Paul Ryan helped Mitt Romney in Wisconsin in 2012? I've yet to see any credible evidence showing (or even suggesting) that VP picks have a noticeable effect on races.

How can Trump win PA?

Minimize losses in Philly and Pittsburgh while maxing out in the rest of the state.

[skoods]

Republicans have been fooling themselves into believing they can win PA every election since 92. I fully expect this to be just another case of that

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Working class bigots in the Scranton and Pittsburgh areas.

[Xing]

^You believe them? I thought NH was Safe D?

Anyway, Trump needs to win white working class voters by a wide margin to win PA, but he also needs to improve among educated, suburban voters. Unless he can flip some of the Philly suburbs, he's going to have a hard time winning PA.

[Podgy the Bear]

I know how Trump is trying to win PA (like the rest of the nation).  To stop this, we need Barack to park himself in the metro Philly and Pittsburgh areas and Biden in NE Pennsylvania for October through Election Day.

[Kingpoleon]

By gaining in Eastern Pennsylvania, right next to New Jersey, and by racking up more votes in the Southwest.

[StatesPoll]

#JillNotHill

[Trapsy]

I know how Trump is trying to win PA (like the rest of the nation).  To stop this, we need Barack to park himself in the metro Philly and Pittsburgh areas and Biden in NE Pennsylvania for October through Election Day.

Biden*

[ProudModerate2]

** UPDATED POLL, JUST RELEASED **

Great News !
Pennsylvania Likely Voters.

Clinton +9 ....... Clinton 50, Trump 41
Clinton +9 ....... Clinton 46, Trump 37, Johnson 5, Stein 3

Poll conducted by: Suffolk University
Link : http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Suffolk_FINAL_PA_Marginals.pdf

PS: Swallow that .... Mr StatesPoll !  LOL.

[Likely Voter]

For a long time, at least a year, I have been saying that the GOP can win PA but they need to start treating it like Ohio, but even moreso. Starting a year ago the RNC should have been building an organization there and registering voters in "the T."  They need to spend as much candidate time and TV air money there as they do Ohio, maybe even more. They need Trump, Pence and/or surrogates in PA every week pounding a simple message on trade. Maybe they can find ways to direct negative Hillary messages into the two big cities and suburbs to depress her vote. They may have to cut back on some other states like CO or VA. I suspect eventually they may have to abandon WI (and probably MI too, which I doubt will even get a major spend anyway).

Bottom line, they need to bet the farm on PA or not even bother. Half-assing it like Romney and McCain is not going to cut it.

[ProudModerate2]

Poll conducted by: Suffolk University
Link : http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Suffolk_FINAL_PA_Marginals.pdf

Interesting question asked in the poll (above) ....

Is there a chance you would support Republican Donald Trump?

Yes---------------- 6     2.40%
No -------------- 227    90.80%
Undecided ------- 16    6.40%
Refused ---------- 1     0.40%

[ProudModerate2]

For a long time, at least a year, I have been saying that the GOP can win PA but they need to start treating it like Ohio, but even moreso. Starting a year ago the RNC should have been building an organization there and registering voters in "the T."  They need to spend as much candidate time and TV air money there as they do Ohio, maybe even more. They need Trump, Pence and/or surrogates in PA every week pounding a simple message on trade. Maybe they can find ways to direct negative Hillary messages into the two big cities and suburbs to depress her vote. They may have to cut back on some other states like CO or VA. I suspect eventually they may have to abandon WI (and probably MI too, which I doubt will even get a major spend anyway).

Bottom line, they need to bet the farm on PA or not even bother. Half-assing it like Romney and McCain is not going to cut it.

But how can the GOP have any success in 2016 (with a strategy, as you suggest), when a poll in PA gives you this kind of results ....

Poll conducted by: Suffolk University
Link : http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Suffolk_FINAL_PA_Marginals.pdf

Interesting question asked in the poll (above) ....

Is there a chance you would support Republican Donald Trump?

Yes---------------- 6     2.40%
No -------------- 227    90.80%
Undecided ------- 16    6.40%
Refused ---------- 1     0.40%

[angus]

For a long time, at least a year, I have been saying that the GOP can win PA but they need to start treating it like Ohio, but even moreso.  Starting a year ago the RNC should have been building an organization there and registering voters in "the T."

The congressional district map is misleading.   This is from 2012:


You'd think with that map they would win the state.  Is the turnout so much lower among voters in those republican districts?  The turnout statewide in 2012 was about 58% according to the PA department of state, lower than 2004 and 2008.  I don't have a table with county- or district-level statistics.  From the tidbits I have read and heard on public radio stations, turnout is generally low among hispanics and single mothers, so boosting turnout statewide might generally be expected to help the Democrats.