2000 or 1988

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

To understand 1960, imagine Bush had >50% approval in 2008.

Obama approval is at 51% in the latest Rasmussen and Gallup.  RCP average is 49.6, very close.

[Sir Mohamed]

Neither. Hillary will win by a comfortable margin and likely be reelected in four years.

[NHI]

Originally I thought more like 2000, but somehow I see this going the way of 1988 with a likely HRC defeat in 2020...

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Originally I thought more like 2000, but somehow I see this going the way of 1988 with a likely HRC defeat in 2020...

A lot can happen in four years.  On the one hand, four consecutive terms of one party's control of the White House is unprecedented since FDR.  On the other, Clinton might prove very effective and popular, and the GOP might do some damned fool thing like nominate Ted Cruz.

After Trump, what becomes of the Republican Party?  I can see the TEA Party / Extremist wing wresting control.  Ted Cruz was a "true conservative" who had the "moral conviction" to stand up to Trump.  I know this sounds absurd, but this is how this wing of the party thinks.  If we're going with the 1988 analogy, Bill Clinton won in part because he reinvented the Democratic Party.  The GOP will need to run a "new Republican," and the forces that shape that party base are unlikely to allow that to happen.  More likely they'll double down.

[skoods]

1988 is what I voted.

Drumpf is Bush and Clinton is Dukakis.

Alternatively, I actually think a good parallel for this election is 2008. Followed by 8 years of an unpopular President (Bush 43/Obama), a dynamic candidate (Obama/Drumpf) defeats a weak and uninspiring candidate of the incumbent party (McCain/Clinton) - who ran with an awful running mate (Palin/Kaine) - in a huge landslide. Drumpf's margin of victory over Clinton probably will be similar to Obama 2008, (53-47).

Obama - and you guys have to realize this - is the new Dubya.

Dude, you're deranged. Seek medical assistance. When polling comes out next week showing Donald down 8-12 points again, are you still going to be this stupid.

Obama the new Dubya?

Um, what? Obama has approval ratings over 50%. Bush was in the 20s by this point.

My goodness Trump supporters really are the dumbest human beings on the planet.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

1976.  Hillary is Ford and Trump is Carter. 

[NHI]

Originally I thought more like 2000, but somehow I see this going the way of 1988 with a likely HRC defeat in 2020...

A lot can happen in four years.  On the one hand, four consecutive terms of one party's control of the White House is unprecedented since FDR.  On the other, Clinton might prove very effective and popular, and the GOP might do some damned fool thing like nominate Ted Cruz.

After Trump, what becomes of the Republican Party?  I can see the TEA Party / Extremist wing wresting control.  Ted Cruz was a "true conservative" who had the "moral conviction" to stand up to Trump.  I know this sounds absurd, but this is how this wing of the party thinks.  If we're going with the 1988 analogy, Bill Clinton won in part because he reinvented the Democratic Party.  The GOP will need to run a "new Republican," and the forces that shape that party base are unlikely to allow that to happen.  More likely they'll double down.

That's a good point. The GOP would need to moderate and drastically change if Trump loses. With Cruz as a likely candidate in 2020 I do not see it happening... Only time will tell, but the path we're on right now looks to be putting Clinton on track to winning the election in '16.

[Mr. Smith]

WI: 1976

Bernie was pretty much an anti-Reagan, Hillary's emails sticking is suspiciously close to the people that wouldn't forgive Ford's pardon. Kaine and Dole are both boring, and fill a void of sorts. Also the popular vote result is an exact match.

trump and Carter both came out of almost nowhere from a huge number of candidates and had the establishment trying and failing to take 'em out. Pence and Mondale are both token nods to appease them. Rand Paul and Scoop Jackson both had foreign policies out of sync with the party they tried running, Udall and Cruz both represented a narrowly ideological field and made it to second.

Also, both sides of he aisle this time have the base wanting big government, in opposition to the "small, clean government" lean justified by Watergate.

All trump has to do is win by 50% to seal this up.

[hopper]

I think 1988 is the most apt comparison.

Bush Sr was unlikeable/uninspiring/uncharismatic. Reagan was the incumbent president who was inspiring, charismatic, and adored by many. IIRC, Bush Sr had very low approval ratings and could've easily been defeated if he had a good opponent. Dukakis ran a terrible campaign. Bush Sr crushed Dukakis because he ran a terrible campaign and also because of Reagan's popularity. However, Bsuh Sr lost reelection in a landslide due to a weak economy, party fatigue, and a great opponent.

Likewise, Hillary is unlikeable/uninspiring/uncharismatic. Obama is the incumbent president who is inspiring, charismatic, and adored by many. Hillary has very low approval ratings and could've easily been defeated if the GOP had nominated a good opponent. However, Donald Trump is running a terrible campaign. Hillary will probably crush Donald Trump because he is running a terrible campaign. I predict that Hillary will only be a one term president due to party fatigue (people are going to get tired of Democratic Party control after 12 years).

If Donald Trump wins (which is very unlikely), then 1976 is an apt comparison.

Jimmy Carter was an anti-establishment outsider. He ran as an anti-establishment maverick and Washington outsider. The Democratic Party establishment hated Jimmy Carter. The Democratic Party establishment tried to do everything they could in order to stop him from winning the nomination. A movement arise from in the Democratic Party called ABC (Anybody but Carter). Plenty of Democratic Party politicians like Ted Kennedy refused to endorse Carter after he had won the nomination. The Democrats implemented a super delegate system after 1976 to make sure that candidates like Carter could never win. On the Republican side, Gerald Ford started out as the favorite. Ronald Reagan decided to run. He started a conservative revolution. His message of true conservatism inspired many across the nation. Reagan started a political revolution. He narrowly lost the primary to Ford. Carter relentlessly attacked his opponent for being a corrupt insider. He marketed himself as an anti-establishment outsider populist who'll bring change to Washington. Carter narrowly won.

Likewise, Donald Trump is an anti-establishment outsider. He ran as an anti-establishment maverick and Washington outsider. The Republican establishment hates Donald Trump. The GOP establishment tried to do everything they could in order to defeat Donald Trump. A movement arised called #NeverTrump. Plenty of Republican Party politicians like Jeb Bush refused to endorse Donald Trump after he had won the nomination. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton started out as the favorite. Bernie Sanders decided to run. He started a progressive revolution. His message of true progressivism inspired many across the nation. He narrowly lost the primary to Clinton. Donald Trump has been relentlessly attacking Hillary for being a corrupt insider. Donald Trump has been marketing himself as an anti-establishment populist outsider who'll bring change to Washington.

Very Good Post and 2016 is a nice comparison to 1976. I didn't realize how hated Carter was by the Dem Establishment in 1976.

I agree with you about 1988 but Trump will win more states than Dukakis did in 1988 because of more people voting the "party line" nowadays than in 1988.

[Mr. Smith]

I think 1988 is the most apt comparison.

Bush Sr was unlikeable/uninspiring/uncharismatic. Reagan was the incumbent president who was inspiring, charismatic, and adored by many. IIRC, Bush Sr had very low approval ratings and could've easily been defeated if he had a good opponent. Dukakis ran a terrible campaign. Bush Sr crushed Dukakis because he ran a terrible campaign and also because of Reagan's popularity. However, Bsuh Sr lost reelection in a landslide due to a weak economy, party fatigue, and a great opponent.

Likewise, Hillary is unlikeable/uninspiring/uncharismatic. Obama is the incumbent president who is inspiring, charismatic, and adored by many. Hillary has very low approval ratings and could've easily been defeated if the GOP had nominated a good opponent. However, Donald Trump is running a terrible campaign. Hillary will probably crush Donald Trump because he is running a terrible campaign. I predict that Hillary will only be a one term president due to party fatigue (people are going to get tired of Democratic Party control after 12 years).

If Donald Trump wins (which is very unlikely), then 1976 is an apt comparison.

Jimmy Carter was an anti-establishment outsider. He ran as an anti-establishment maverick and Washington outsider. The Democratic Party establishment hated Jimmy Carter. The Democratic Party establishment tried to do everything they could in order to stop him from winning the nomination. A movement arise from in the Democratic Party called ABC (Anybody but Carter). Plenty of Democratic Party politicians like Ted Kennedy refused to endorse Carter after he had won the nomination. The Democrats implemented a super delegate system after 1976 to make sure that candidates like Carter could never win. On the Republican side, Gerald Ford started out as the favorite. Ronald Reagan decided to run. He started a conservative revolution. His message of true conservatism inspired many across the nation. Reagan started a political revolution. He narrowly lost the primary to Ford. Carter relentlessly attacked his opponent for being a corrupt insider. He marketed himself as an anti-establishment outsider populist who'll bring change to Washington. Carter narrowly won.

Likewise, Donald Trump is an anti-establishment outsider. He ran as an anti-establishment maverick and Washington outsider. The Republican establishment hates Donald Trump. The GOP establishment tried to do everything they could in order to defeat Donald Trump. A movement arised called #NeverTrump. Plenty of Republican Party politicians like Jeb Bush refused to endorse Donald Trump after he had won the nomination. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton started out as the favorite. Bernie Sanders decided to run. He started a progressive revolution. His message of true progressivism inspired many across the nation. He narrowly lost the primary to Clinton. Donald Trump has been relentlessly attacking Hillary for being a corrupt insider. Donald Trump has been marketing himself as an anti-establishment populist outsider who'll bring change to Washington.

Don't forget that ABC and #NeverTrump both were strongest rooted in The West, in which "true liberals" or Cruz the hardline conservative won. Whereas in The South and Northeast, Carter and trump both made it big.

[President Johnson]

2000.

Relatively popular president is succeeded by the candidate of the opposite party, who narrowly wins.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

2000.

Relatively popular president is succeeded by the candidate of the opposite party, who narrowly wins.

While losing the popular vote.

[President Johnson]

2000.

Relatively popular president is succeeded by the candidate of the opposite party, who narrowly wins.

While losing the popular vote.

Nope. He'll win by one or two points Hilldog is more likely the popular vote while winning a narrow EC majority.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Neither.

[President Johnson]

Originally I thought more like 2000, but somehow I see this going the way of 1988 with a likely HRC defeat in 2020...

A lot can happen in four years.  On the one hand, four consecutive terms of one party's control of the White House is unprecedented since FDR.  On the other, Clinton might prove very effective and popular, and the GOP might do some damned fool thing like nominate Ted Cruz.

After Trump, what becomes of the Republican Party?  I can see the TEA Party / Extremist wing wresting control.  Ted Cruz was a "true conservative" who had the "moral conviction" to stand up to Trump.  I know this sounds absurd, but this is how this wing of the party thinks.  If we're going with the 1988 analogy, Bill Clinton won in part because he reinvented the Democratic Party.  The GOP will need to run a "new Republican," and the forces that shape that party base are unlikely to allow that to happen.  More likely they'll double down.

If Hilldog wins, much depends on the 2020 GOP nominee. If it's Cruz or another far right-winger, she'll win reelection (and I would be in favor of that). If someone like Sandoval, Baker, Haley or Hogan is the nominee, she could very well be defeated.