2000 or 1988
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Question: What will the historical parallel be?
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2000 Election
 
#2
1988 Election
 
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Author Topic: 2000 or 1988  (Read 1839 times)
tonyreyes89
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« on: July 28, 2016, 01:20:44 PM »

I think these are the two most plausible options if we're talking historical parallels (1968 was up there but Trump didn't run indy).

2000: Trump dominates with personality and wins a squeaker like Bush with Hillary running a listless campaign like Gore. 

1988: Hillary proves to have the experience and judgement against an empty suit

If you have any other years this bizarre cycle resembles feel free to mention those.
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« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2016, 01:29:37 PM »

1988. Trump is way less charismatic than W Bush and his gaffes have no positive spin. If you need any evidence that he's not play 4-dimensional chess, just look at his comments about Judge Curiel. There was no benefit to his poll numbers, in fact they went down. He got a lot of media attention out of that event, and it didn't benefit him. He's not a tactical genius; he's an idiot.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2016, 01:31:00 PM »

1976.  Hillary is Ford and Trump is Carter. 
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« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2016, 01:34:38 PM »

Somewhat 1988. Clinton is the establishment-backed, competent candidate. Trump is charismatic, but he is a gaffe machine.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2016, 01:47:13 PM »

1988. Trump is way less charismatic than W Bush and his gaffes have no positive spin. If you need any evidence that he's not play 4-dimensional chess, just look at his comments about Judge Curiel. There was no benefit to his poll numbers, in fact they went down. He got a lot of media attention out of that event, and it didn't benefit him. He's not a tactical genius; he's an idiot.
As Obama said, we all make misstakes.

Trump is not an idiot. Actually, I don't think, that there is anybody, who'd be that close to winning an election, after spending so little money to ads.
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Hammy
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« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2016, 01:47:39 PM »

Trump is charismatic, but he is a gaffe machine.

While I"m a bit off topic from the thread I always wonder how entertaining Trump vs Biden would've been.

As for my vote, It's honestly hard to tell at this point.
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Spark
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« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2016, 01:52:28 PM »

2000
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« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2016, 02:01:22 PM »

1988. Trump is way less charismatic than W Bush and his gaffes have no positive spin. If you need any evidence that he's not play 4-dimensional chess, just look at his comments about Judge Curiel. There was no benefit to his poll numbers, in fact they went down. He got a lot of media attention out of that event, and it didn't benefit him. He's not a tactical genius; he's an idiot.
As Obama said, we all make misstakes.

Trump is not an idiot. Actually, I don't think, that there is anybody, who'd be that close to winning an election, after spending so little money to ads.
I'm not a subscriber to the "great man" theory. Trump tapped into the discontent brewing since 2009. His personal acumen has little to do with it beyond fueling the flames of populist resentment. The problem is, his controversial remarks have not been helpful since he won the nomination back in May.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2016, 02:07:10 PM »

1988. Trump is way less charismatic than W Bush and his gaffes have no positive spin. If you need any evidence that he's not play 4-dimensional chess, just look at his comments about Judge Curiel. There was no benefit to his poll numbers, in fact they went down. He got a lot of media attention out of that event, and it didn't benefit him. He's not a tactical genius; he's an idiot.
As Obama said, we all make misstakes.

Trump is not an idiot. Actually, I don't think, that there is anybody, who'd be that close to winning an election, after spending so little money to ads.
I'm not a subscriber to the "great man" theory. Trump tapped into the discontent brewing since 2009. His personal acumen has little to do with it beyond fueling the flames of populist resentment. The problem is, his controversial remarks have not been helpful since he won the nomination back in May.
His remarks did help him... to avoid talking about the issues Wink

He's not genious, but he is pretty smart.
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2016, 02:20:09 PM »

1976.  Hillary is Ford and Trump is Carter. 
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Ljube
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« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2016, 02:48:21 PM »

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Yank2133
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« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2016, 03:08:03 PM »

1988 is what I voted.

Trump is Bush and Clinton is Dukakis.

Alternatively, I actually think a good parallel for this election is 2008. Followed by 8 years of an unpopular President (Bush 43/Obama), a dynamic candidate (Obama/Trump) defeats a weak and uninspiring candidate of the incumbent party (McCain/Clinton) - who ran with an awful running mate (Palin/Kaine) - in a huge landslide. Trump's margin of victory over Clinton probably will be similar to Obama 2008, (53-47).

Obama - and you guys have to realize this - is the new Dubya.





LMAO!

Obama is hovering around 50 % approval rating and his favorability rating is even higher. Bush was struggling to crack 30% around this time in 2008.

Just lol at comparing this to 2008, some of you blue avatars really live in an alternate universe.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2016, 03:14:27 PM »

Write in: 1968

Clinton is Humphrey and Trump is Nixon

Johnson is somewhat Wallace, in terms of being a third party that is strong in a certain region.

Not sure who will win in the end. 1968 was close in the popular vote too.

1988 is what I voted.

Trump is Bush and Clinton is Dukakis.

Alternatively, I actually think a good parallel for this election is 2008. Followed by 8 years of an unpopular President (Bush 43/Obama), a dynamic candidate (Obama/Trump) defeats a weak and uninspiring candidate of the incumbent party (McCain/Clinton) - who ran with an awful running mate (Palin/Kaine) - in a huge landslide. Trump's margin of victory over Clinton probably will be similar to Obama 2008, (53-47).

Obama - and you guys have to realize this - is the new Dubya.





LMAO!

Obama is hovering around 50 % approval rating and his favorability rating is even higher. Bush was struggling to crack 30% around this time in 2008.

Just lol at comparing this to 2008, some of you blue avatars really live in an alternate universe.

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Virginiá
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« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2016, 03:28:51 PM »

1988 is what I voted.

Trump is Bush and Clinton is Dukakis.

Alternatively, I actually think a good parallel for this election is 2008. Followed by 8 years of an unpopular President (Bush 43/Obama), a dynamic candidate (Obama/Trump) defeats a weak and uninspiring candidate of the incumbent party (McCain/Clinton) - who ran with an awful running mate (Palin/Kaine) - in a huge landslide. Trump's margin of victory over Clinton probably will be similar to Obama 2008, (53-47).

Obama - and you guys have to realize this - is the new Dubya.

LOL what are you smoking?

Maybe Obama has the same image/favorables among certain Republicans as Dubya did among Democrats, but Obama is much more well-liked overall than Bush was at the end. Obama never went as low as Dubya did. The differences are many. I don't even know how you came up with this. Are you aware of Obama's current approval ratings?

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Vosem
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« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2016, 03:30:52 PM »

1988 of these two, though Trump is about as unlike Dukakis as a presidential nominee can get.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2016, 03:31:06 PM »

2012, if the Republicans had nominated someone like Cain.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2016, 03:35:49 PM »

closer to 2000 than 1988, but neither is a great match.

1948 is an approximate parallel. - The US economy was coming off a sugar high of spending post WWII in 1948, today we are digesting the post 2009 Stimulus hangover. - In both years the economies were in transition from an unprecedented government distortion to the economy.

In addition, the US economy was in transition from one major era to another - In 1948 from a wartime economy to a cold war economy - In 2016 from a super power to a non superpower state....
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2016, 03:39:07 PM »

1988 is what I voted.

Trump is Bush and Clinton is Dukakis.

Alternatively, I actually think a good parallel for this election is 2008. Followed by 8 years of an unpopular President (Bush 43/Obama), a dynamic candidate (Obama/Trump) defeats a weak and uninspiring candidate of the incumbent party (McCain/Clinton) - who ran with an awful running mate (Palin/Kaine) - in a huge landslide. Trump's margin of victory over Clinton probably will be similar to Obama 2008, (53-47).

Obama - and you guys have to realize this - is the new Dubya.





Doesn't quite work - Reagan was a very successful president which is very much at odds with the 2016 dynamic.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #18 on: July 28, 2016, 03:44:29 PM »

1960 - Clinton is Nixon and Trump is JFK.

Many people refused to vote for JFK - not because he was an egotistical, bigoted buffoon, but because he was a Roman Catholic.  JFK was charismatic, while Nixon was the robotic voice of the establishment.  Dirty tricks were employed to decide a key state (EDIT: Hasn't happened yet, but it wouldn't surprise me).

The popular vote margin was 0.17%, which makes Gore's PV margin over Bush look like a landslide.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #19 on: July 28, 2016, 03:55:59 PM »

No party can win like 1988 anymore...so 2000 is the more correct answer, although even that isn't very accurate.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #20 on: July 28, 2016, 04:55:44 PM »

1960 - Clinton is Nixon and Trump is JFK.

Many people refused to vote for JFK - not because he was an egotistical, bigoted buffoon, but because he was a Roman Catholic.  JFK was charismatic, while Nixon was the robotic voice of the establishment.  Dirty tricks were employed to decide a key state (EDIT: Hasn't happened yet, but it wouldn't surprise me).

The popular vote margin was 0.17%, which makes Gore's PV margin over Bush look like a landslide.

You have a point about 1960..

So is 1960 or 1948 closer?
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #21 on: July 28, 2016, 05:02:48 PM »

No party can win like 1988 anymore...so 2000 is the more correct answer, although even that isn't very accurate.

While it's incredibly hard to win by a margin of more then 7-8 points, that doesn't mean all elections are closer then 1988. 2008 was a victory similar to 1988 in being a significant landslide compared to the usual margin.
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Human
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« Reply #22 on: July 28, 2016, 05:08:49 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2016, 05:10:37 PM by Human »

I think 1988 is the most apt comparison.

Bush Sr was unlikeable/uninspiring/uncharismatic. Reagan was the incumbent president who was inspiring, charismatic, and adored by many. IIRC, Bush Sr had very low approval ratings and could've easily been defeated if he had a good opponent. Dukakis ran a terrible campaign. Bush Sr crushed Dukakis because he ran a terrible campaign and also because of Reagan's popularity. However, Bsuh Sr lost reelection in a landslide due to a weak economy, party fatigue, and a great opponent.

Likewise, Hillary is unlikeable/uninspiring/uncharismatic. Obama is the incumbent president who is inspiring, charismatic, and adored by many. Hillary has very low approval ratings and could've easily been defeated if the GOP had nominated a good opponent. However, Donald Trump is running a terrible campaign. Hillary will probably crush Donald Trump because he is running a terrible campaign. I predict that Hillary will only be a one term president due to party fatigue (people are going to get tired of Democratic Party control after 12 years).

If Donald Trump wins (which is very unlikely), then 1976 is an apt comparison.

Jimmy Carter was an anti-establishment outsider. He ran as an anti-establishment maverick and Washington outsider. The Democratic Party establishment hated Jimmy Carter. The Democratic Party establishment tried to do everything they could in order to stop him from winning the nomination. A movement arise from in the Democratic Party called ABC (Anybody but Carter). Plenty of Democratic Party politicians like Ted Kennedy refused to endorse Carter after he had won the nomination. The Democrats implemented a super delegate system after 1976 to make sure that candidates like Carter could never win. On the Republican side, Gerald Ford started out as the favorite. Ronald Reagan decided to run. He started a conservative revolution. His message of true conservatism inspired many across the nation. Reagan started a political revolution. He narrowly lost the primary to Ford. Carter relentlessly attacked his opponent for being a corrupt insider. He marketed himself as an anti-establishment outsider populist who'll bring change to Washington. Carter narrowly won.

Likewise, Donald Trump is an anti-establishment outsider. He ran as an anti-establishment maverick and Washington outsider. The Republican establishment hates Donald Trump. The GOP establishment tried to do everything they could in order to defeat Donald Trump. A movement arised called #NeverTrump. Plenty of Republican Party politicians like Jeb Bush refused to endorse Donald Trump after he had won the nomination. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton started out as the favorite. Bernie Sanders decided to run. He started a progressive revolution. His message of true progressivism inspired many across the nation. He narrowly lost the primary to Clinton. Donald Trump has been relentlessly attacking Hillary for being a corrupt insider. Donald Trump has been marketing himself as an anti-establishment populist outsider who'll bring change to Washington.
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« Reply #23 on: July 28, 2016, 05:55:10 PM »


Also worth noting that Sanders is a good Reagan '76 analogue; a populist candidate on the ideological fringes of the party that wins ~45% of the primary vote.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #24 on: July 29, 2016, 08:00:45 AM »

1960 - Clinton is Nixon and Trump is JFK.

Many people refused to vote for JFK - not because he was an egotistical, bigoted buffoon, but because he was a Roman Catholic.  JFK was charismatic, while Nixon was the robotic voice of the establishment.  Dirty tricks were employed to decide a key state (EDIT: Hasn't happened yet, but it wouldn't surprise me).

The popular vote margin was 0.17%, which makes Gore's PV margin over Bush look like a landslide.

You have a point about 1960..

So is 1960 or 1948 closer?

To understand 1960, imagine Bush had >50% approval in 2008.  It doesn't really fit this year at all.  If you're looking for an election to compare this to, I'd suggest 1896 before anything else.

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