2000 or 1988

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

1960 - Clinton is Nixon and Trump is JFK.

Many people refused to vote for JFK - not because he was an egotistical, bigoted buffoon, but because he was a Roman Catholic.  JFK was charismatic, while Nixon was the robotic voice of the establishment.  Dirty tricks were employed to decide a key state (EDIT: Hasn't happened yet, but it wouldn't surprise me).

The popular vote margin was 0.17%, which makes Gore's PV margin over Bush look like a landslide.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

1960 - Clinton is Nixon and Trump is JFK.

Many people refused to vote for JFK - not because he was an egotistical, bigoted buffoon, but because he was a Roman Catholic.  JFK was charismatic, while Nixon was the robotic voice of the establishment.  Dirty tricks were employed to decide a key state (EDIT: Hasn't happened yet, but it wouldn't surprise me).

The popular vote margin was 0.17%, which makes Gore's PV margin over Bush look like a landslide.

You have a point about 1960..

So is 1960 or 1948 closer?

To understand 1960, imagine Bush had >50% approval in 2008.  It doesn't really fit this year at all.  If you're looking for an election to compare this to, I'd suggest 1896 before anything else.

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[Beefalow and the Consumer]

To understand 1960, imagine Bush had >50% approval in 2008.

Obama approval is at 51% in the latest Rasmussen and Gallup.  RCP average is 49.6, very close.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Originally I thought more like 2000, but somehow I see this going the way of 1988 with a likely HRC defeat in 2020...

A lot can happen in four years.  On the one hand, four consecutive terms of one party's control of the White House is unprecedented since FDR.  On the other, Clinton might prove very effective and popular, and the GOP might do some damned fool thing like nominate Ted Cruz.

After Trump, what becomes of the Republican Party?  I can see the TEA Party / Extremist wing wresting control.  Ted Cruz was a "true conservative" who had the "moral conviction" to stand up to Trump.  I know this sounds absurd, but this is how this wing of the party thinks.  If we're going with the 1988 analogy, Bill Clinton won in part because he reinvented the Democratic Party.  The GOP will need to run a "new Republican," and the forces that shape that party base are unlikely to allow that to happen.  More likely they'll double down.