Who Will Win In Pennsylvania?
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  Who Will Win In Pennsylvania?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Toomey or McGinty?
#1
Pat Toomey (R)		  
#2
Katie McGinty (D)		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 65

Author Topic: Who Will Win In Pennsylvania?  (Read 3482 times)
Free Bird
TheHawk
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« on: July 28, 2016, 06:38:46 PM »
This whole race seems to be composed of outliers.
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Xing
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« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2016, 06:54:22 PM »
Toomey is narrowly favored for now, but he's not the shoo-in that some people think he is.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2016, 06:56:03 PM »
The Pub
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Nyvin
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« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2016, 07:24:43 PM »
This race will follow the national tide.   Whoever wins the White House will also win the PA senate seat.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2016, 11:46:19 PM »
I think McGinty will be the Democrats' biggest mistake of 2016.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2016, 11:58:39 PM »
If Hillary wins by more than 5% McGinty will win, which she will.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2016, 01:59:35 AM »
I think Toomey is going to win.

✓Toomey: 50.9%
McGinty: 47.8%

However, the Trumpster won't carry the state. He'll lose my a decent margin (five to seven points).
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2016, 02:01:46 AM »
If the election were held today, I'd say Toomey would win 49-47.
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JMT
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« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2016, 07:54:54 AM »
Toomey would win if the election were held today, but the election is not for another 3 months. I think Clinton will win this state and as a result of high democratic turnout, McGinty will win too.
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sg0508
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« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2016, 11:44:33 AM »
The "turnout" factor certainly favors McGinty.

1) Trump's nomination may suppress GOP turnout
2) Minority turnout should be up for Hillary.

Again, the presidential race will have an effect and we're still three months away. 
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windjammer
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« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2016, 12:30:02 PM »
Mcginty

Toomey is so overrated lol
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Human
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« Reply #11 on: July 29, 2016, 07:48:46 PM »
Toomey
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heatcharger
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« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2016, 10:50:34 PM »
If the election were held today:

Quote from: MohamedChalid on July 29, 2016, 01:59:35 AM
I think Toomey is going to win.

✓Toomey: 50.9%
McGinty: 47.8%

However, the Trumpster won't carry the state. He'll lose my a decent margin (five to seven points).

However, there's no recent precedent for Republican senators surviving presidential elections in blue or swing states (unless you count Susan Collins in 2008). McGinty being a Democrat should carry her across the finish line, something like this:

✓McGinty: 51.6%
Toomey: 47.7%

I would've had way more confidence in Sestak, but whatever.
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Vega
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2016, 10:51:57 PM »
Yeah, Toomey. He hasn't done much to rock the boat in a big way, and he has been making a lot of hay out of that super watered down gun bill that failed as a sign of him being bi-partisan.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2016, 11:18:14 PM »
Quote from: heatcharger on July 29, 2016, 10:50:34 PM
If the election were held today:

Quote from: MohamedChalid on July 29, 2016, 01:59:35 AM
I think Toomey is going to win.

✓Toomey: 50.9%
McGinty: 47.8%

However, the Trumpster won't carry the state. He'll lose my a decent margin (five to seven points).

However, there's no recent precedent for Republican senators surviving presidential elections in blue or swing states (unless you count Susan Collins in 2008).

Uh, Dean Heller in Nevada, 2012.

The only other R senator running for reelection in 2012 in a blue or swing state was Scott Brown, but MA is so blue that even if Obama was losing reelection I don't think he would have held on - so you're basically trying to super-generalize from the YUGE WAVE in 2008.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2016, 01:43:12 AM »
As of now, Toomey. But people who think McGinty is unelectable and Toomey is going to coast to re-election in a landslide are kidding themselves.
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JMT
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« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2016, 09:14:40 PM »
Bump.

Has anyone changed their mind about this race? A few weeks ago I thought McGinty would win in November, and after recent polling / Donald Trump fiasco I believe it even more now. I predict Clinton and McGinty win
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xingkerui
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« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2016, 09:36:27 PM »
McGinty's taken the lead, but it's quite close. I'm not comfortable making a call right now, but it's clear that Toomey is more vulnerable than we all thought.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2016, 09:43:48 PM »
I'm not comfortable calling it for either one at this point. Total toss-up.
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JMT
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« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2016, 09:51:44 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on August 12, 2016, 09:43:48 PM
I'm not comfortable calling it for either one at this point. Total toss-up.

I also think it should be rated tossup for now. It is still close enough that Toomey can win. But I'm looking towards November, I think by then McGinty will be favored and will win the race
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Miles
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« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2016, 10:09:37 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on July 28, 2016, 11:46:19 PM
I think McGinty will be the Democrats' biggest mistake of 2016.

Not recruiting stronger candidate in GA was a bigger mistake, IMO, but this.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #21 on: August 13, 2016, 08:26:10 AM »
I'll maintain that if Trump even marginally improves, Toomey will bounce back.
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #22 on: August 13, 2016, 08:50:41 AM »
Quote from: Maxwell on August 12, 2016, 09:43:48 PM
I'm not comfortable calling it for either one at this point. Total toss-up.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: August 16, 2016, 01:08:31 PM »
Kate McGinty cause Clinton is running away with PA
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #24 on: August 16, 2016, 02:00:20 PM »
Quote from: Miles on August 12, 2016, 10:09:37 PM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on July 28, 2016, 11:46:19 PM
I think McGinty will be the Democrats' biggest mistake of 2016.

Not recruiting stronger candidate in GA was a bigger mistake, IMO, but this.

I don't think Isakson was ever going to lose. If the 2014 race happened in 2016, then I think Democrats would have a shot.
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