Governor Smith (D-CA) heads into the Democratic primary heavily favored, with both
Senator Peebs (D-NC) and
Senator Xing (D-WA) low on cash and endorsements. However, progressives turn out in much higher numbers than expected, giving Gov. Smith a more difficult primary than he had hoped for. He comes in third in the Iowa caucus, behind Xing, who is narrowly edged out by Peebs. Xing wins the next two contests in New Hampshire and Nevada, causing many to believe that Smith might be out of luck. However, the Smith campaign remains confident that the Deep South and Southwest will hold for him. He wins the South Carolina primary over Peebs, and Xing gets a distant third, which quickly erases the lead he had gained from the previous contests.
Over the next few months, it becomes clear that Smith has the largest base of support, as he wins the Deep South easily, as well as several contests in the Southwest and Midwest. Peebs and Xing continuously split the progressive vote, and while Peebs is able to win several contests in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, while Xing does well in the West and New England, it is evident by May that neither will be able to secure a majority of delegates. While they attempt to win enough delegates to force a brokered convention, Smith's big win in California is enough for him to secure the nomination.