Will DNC bounce be bigger than RNC bounce?

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[Antonio the Sixth]

No idea. I don't understand this election in the slightest.

[Lachi]

Almost certainly.
Especially when you compare the two conventions.

[pppolitics]

optimism vs pessimism

obviously!

[Gass3268]

I am going to guess yes, but I wouldn't be shocked if it was a no.

[Kingpoleon]

I am going to guess no, but I wouldn't be shocked if it was a yes.

[Crumpets]

God, I hope so.

[Xing]

I am going to guess yes, but I wouldn't be shocked if it was a no.

[Mike Thick]

I am going to guess yes, but I wouldn't be shocked if it was a no.

[afleitch]

It depends on whether Trump's bounce was measured correctly. July conventions are early in the campaign.  I expect a poll 'correction' if that makes sense.

[evergreenarbor]

God, I hope so.

[Pericles]

The RNC didn't go very well, with the plagarism, Cruz non-endorsement, pessimism, disunity and a general failure to connect with swing voters. I think they got a bounce because there are a lot of undecided voters and the race is in much more flux this year. Nate Silver I think said that this race is more like a race from the 80s or 90s than from the 21st century. In that context the bounce Trump has gotten has not been too extraordinary, especially since the polls were already trending to him. Despite the boos, the Democrats had a broadly united convention and rallied behind Clinton and made the case to Clinton. Logic would dictate they should get a bigger bounce. But this cycle has defied logic a lot so far. Still, I predict a bounce of around 5 percentage points.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Probably, but we all know how brief such bounces usually are.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

No idea. I don't understand this election in the slightest.

Who does?

[Tender Branson]

He need to wait a week or two now to find out.

Hillary was up by 2-4% against Trump before the GOP convention, so if she's up by 5 on average next week it was probably a bigger bump than Trump's.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Probably, but we all know how brief such bounces usually are.

Well, Obama's convention bounce in 2012 lasted until the first debate and arguably was the decisive factor that made him the favorite. Again though, 2012 was a NORMAL election.

[7,052,770]

Yes, but it may be more due to Bernie voters coming home than swing voters.

[Classic Conservative]

I am going to guess yes, but I wouldn't be shocked if it was a no.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Depends on how much of Trump's recent surge came from Comey's email statements, and how much was due to the convention itself.  As I see it, Trump got an 8-point surge (from 6 down to 2 up) but probably only half of that was an RNC bounce.

I expect Clinton to bounce back to +6, which would equalize Trump's recent surge, but exceed his convention bounce.

It wouldn't surprise me if Clinton bounced to +10 before settling back to +6, however.

[Gass3268]

Point of reference, 538 states that Trump's average bump was about 3-4 points.

[Devout Centrist]

Don't know. Could be like the bounces of the eighties because of the indepdents and undecideds. Maybe Trump's bump was harmed by the controversy. We simply don't know.

[Stranger in a strange land]

No idea, because nothing makes sense in this election so far.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Point of reference, 538 states that Trump's average bump was about 3-4 points.

In that case, Clinton will almost certainly get a bigger bounce.  4 points would put her at +3, and I can't see her getting to less than +5.  Probably more like +10, falling back to +5 when the afterglow wears off.

[Ljube]

No, because almost all Dems had already been united before the convention even started. The opposite is true for Pubs.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

She'll take a lead over Trump no less than three points and no more than six. The DNC wasn't spectaculer but the RNC was still worse. I think the lead will continue to fluctuate throughout the course of the campaign.