Ipsos/Reuters Polls (through DNC week): Clinton +6 (tied 4-way)

[Tender Branson]

Head-to-head:

LV
Clinton 41
Trump 35

RV
Clinton 40
Trump 33


4-way:
NOTE: 4-way poll is a completely different poll with different sample.

LV:
Clinton 37
Trump 37
Johnson 5
Stein 1

RV:
Clinton 37
Trump 34
Johnson 8
Stein 3


...

Favourable Ratings (RV):

43-57 Clinton
43-57 Trump

...

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http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7324

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15793

UPDATE: Different LV 2-way numbers
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN1092M5

[The Other Castro]

Is this with their new methodology? If so that's a 7 point bump in the head to head without even capturing the totality of the post-convention reaction.

[Tender Branson]

Considering Reuters/Ipsos already had Hillary up by 13 points a month ago, this is not all too good news for Hillary.

But could be worse for her ...

[Fusionmunster]

Could you just put the numbers in the header, I have no idea what "+ not" is supposed to mean.

Considering Reuters/Ipsos already had Hillary up by 13 points a month ago, this is not all too good news for Hillary.

But could be worse for her ...

Considering they changed their methodology, its fine.

[Tender Branson]

Could you just put the numbers in the header, I have no idea what "+ not" is supposed to mean.

Considering Reuters/Ipsos already had Hillary up by 13 points a month ago, this is not all too good news for Hillary.

But could be worse for her ...

Considering they changed their methodology, its fine.

"+ not" means that she pulled ahead (2-way) and at the same time she did not (4-way).

[Ebsy]

Only Tender Branson could spin a 7 point lead as not good for Clinton.

[Tender Branson]

Only Tender Branson could spin a 7 point lead as not good for Clinton.

Nah.

Just look at the numbers:

The important number is the LV figure now.

And don't do as if Johnson and Stein are not in the race !

[Lief 🗽]

Tender Branson sweating LIKE A DOG over Clinton's lead--SAD!

[The Other Castro]

Trump gains two points when Johnson and Stein are added lol.

[Ebsy]

Tender Branson sweating LIKE A DOG over Clinton's lead--SAD!

She was down by 2 and is now up by 5 with likely voters, a 7 point convention bounce already! But this is bad news because reasons!

[Seriously?]

This thing remains a mess. The old poll had 4-way with a Clinton lead and 2-way with a Trump lead. The new poll has the opposite.

It's almost like they are polling two separate samples.

Hopefully they get their methodology right.

[Tender Branson]

Tender Branson sweating LIKE A DOG over Clinton's lead--SAD!

She was down by 2 and is now up by 5 with likely voters, a 7 point convention bounce already! But this is bad news because reasons!

Once again, why are you ignoring Johnson and Stein ? They are also on the ballot.

And in this case, the race is a tie.

We need more polls, but the evidence so far shows that Trump got a 4-5% bump and Clinton roughly the same one.

It's all back to the Clinton+4 race like before the conventions (or even less than that).

[Ebsy]

Tender Branson sweating LIKE A DOG over Clinton's lead--SAD!

She was down by 2 and is now up by 5 with likely voters, a 7 point convention bounce already! But this is bad news because reasons!

Once again, why are you ignoring Johnson and Stein ? They are also on the ballot.

And in this case, the race is a tie.

We need more polls, but the evidence so far shows that Trump got a 4-5% bump and Clinton roughly the same one.

It's all back to the Clinton+4 race like before the conventions (or even less than that).

Your opinion =!= reality.

[Mallow]

Trump gains two points when Johnson and Stein are added lol.

Yeah, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Allow people to vote for Johnson and Stein, and somehow MORE people vote for Trump? How does that work, exactly?

[Seriously?]

Tender Branson sweating LIKE A DOG over Clinton's lead--SAD!

She was down by 2 and is now up by 5 with likely voters, a 7 point convention bounce already! But this is bad news because reasons!

Once again, why are you ignoring Johnson and Stein ? They are also on the ballot.

And in this case, the race is a tie.

We need more polls, but the evidence so far shows that Trump got a 4-5% bump and Clinton roughly the same one.

It's all back to the Clinton+4 race like before the conventions (or even less than that).

This thing doesn't really measure the Clinton bounce as the speech ended after 11:00 pm yesterday on the East coast.

It's contradictory, befuddling and lacks logic.

How do Trump's numbers RISE when you go from 2-way to 4-way for starters? I simply don't understand the methodology.

If you believe this poll, there's a bounce in the 2-way and a negative bounce in the 4-way. Yeah OK.

[Tender Branson]

Tender Branson sweating LIKE A DOG over Clinton's lead--SAD!

She was down by 2 and is now up by 5 with likely voters, a 7 point convention bounce already! But this is bad news because reasons!

Once again, why are you ignoring Johnson and Stein ? They are also on the ballot.

And in this case, the race is a tie.

We need more polls, but the evidence so far shows that Trump got a 4-5% bump and Clinton roughly the same one.

It's all back to the Clinton+4 race like before the conventions (or even less than that).

Your opinion =!= reality.

My opinion is the reality. I only post the facts and the facts in this poll show Hillary ahead by 2.5 points on average among LV and by 5 among RV.

That is exactly back to pre-convention polling levels.

[Human]

Start getting used to saying "President Hillary Clinton," folks.

Donald Trump is going down!

[The Other Castro]

Seriously? is actually correct about this, which is not something I thought I'd ever say.

[Ljube]

Reuters is a joke.

[windjammer]

Guys seriously,
Stop overreacting and stop being edgy, this is annoying.

[JerryArkansas]

Tender Branson sweating LIKE A DOG over Clinton's lead--SAD!

She was down by 2 and is now up by 5 with likely voters, a 7 point convention bounce already! But this is bad news because reasons!

Once again, why are you ignoring Johnson and Stein ? They are also on the ballot.

And in this case, the race is a tie.

We need more polls, but the evidence so far shows that Trump got a 4-5% bump and Clinton roughly the same one.

It's all back to the Clinton+4 race like before the conventions (or even less than that).

Johnson is a loon.  Stein wont even be on the damn ballot in all 50 states.  Why in hell should she be polled in a national sample.

[Mehmentum]

Another thing that makes this poll stupid is that nobody's breaking 40%.  27% undecided?  Really?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump gains two points when Johnson and Stein are added lol.

Yeah, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Allow people to vote for Johnson and Stein, and somehow MORE people vote for Trump? How does that work, exactly?

This thing remains a mess. The old poll had 4-way with a Clinton lead and 2-way with a Trump lead. The new poll has the opposite.

It's almost like they are polling two separate samples.

Hopefully they get their methodology right.

They do actually use different samples.

Head-to-Head:
(Asked of registered voters, n=1,290)

Including Johnson & Stein:
(Asked of registered voters, n=1,788)

But why? It's weird :/

And they seem to change theirs methodology for Head-to-Head only. What the hell are they doing?!

[Seriously?]

Trump gains two points when Johnson and Stein are added lol.

Yeah, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Allow people to vote for Johnson and Stein, and somehow MORE people vote for Trump? How does that work, exactly?

This thing remains a mess. The old poll had 4-way with a Clinton lead and 2-way with a Trump lead. The new poll has the opposite.

It's almost like they are polling two separate samples.

Hopefully they get their methodology right.

They do actually use different samples.

Head-to-Head:
(Asked of registered voters, n=1,290)

Including Johnson & Stein:
(Asked of registered voters, n=1,788)

But why? It's weird :/

And they seem to change theirs methodology for Head-to-Head only. What the hell are they doing?!

Then there's this:

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters July 25-29, 2016. For the survey, a sample of 2,157 Americans, including 899 Democrats, 753 Republicans, and 266 Independents ages 18+ were interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points for all adults, 3.7 percentage points for Democrats, 4.1 percentage points for Republicans, and 6.9 percentage points for Independents. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

Unless just some folks are answering the 4-way and not the 2-way, this doesn't make sense.

[Likely Voter]

It is hard to make apples to apples comparisons with this poll and their release earlier in the week due to overlapping time samples and the fact that they changed their methodology sometime in the last week, not sure if it was halfway through this poll or earlier.  

But with that in mind, here are the somewhat contradictory trends of the July 25-29 sample vs the July 22-26 sample.

LV (Clinton margin +6 since last poll)
Clinton 40 (+1)
Trump 35 (-5)

RV (Clinton +7)
Clinton 40 (+2)
Trump 33 (-5)

4-way:

LV (Trump +3)
Clinton 37 (-3)
Trump 37 (-)
Johnson 5 (-2)
Stein 1 (-2)


RV (Clinton +1)
Clinton 37 (-1)
Trump 34 (-2)
Johnson 8 (+1)
Stein 3 (-)