MO-GOV 2016: Koster vs. Greitens: Who wins?

[Suburbia]

Now that the August 2 primaries are over, Navy SEAL Eric Greitens (R) and Missouri Attorney General Chris Koster (D) will be the nominees of their respective parties. Who wins this governorship in a red-leaning state?

[Kingpoleon]

Koster, 49-47. The only thing that might bring him down if there are debates are his looks, especially compared to Greitens.

[Miles]

Koster, 49-47. The only thing that might bring him down if there are debates are his looks, especially compared to Greitens.

Neither of them are particularly bad looking....

[Kingpoleon]

I'd say Greitens is remarkably more fresh faced looking. Koster has bad hair, looks a bit old, and his naturally ruddy complexion could deeply darken during a stressful moment in the debates.

[Maxwell]

I know polls contradict me, but I'd be surprised if Greitens lost.

[windjammer]

If that was a close election and that the Pub nominee would win by 10 points, I believe Greitens would have won it.

However, the republican nominee is Donald Trump, he will probably not win MO by more than 5 points and might love this state, so I m guessing Chris Koster will win.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Koster is a clear blue-dog democrat, governor isn't a terribly partisan office, and Democrats haven't yet reached the end of the leash in terms of the ability to win in MO. He wins, but not by the double digit margin Mason Dixon put out. Kander and Hillary will lose the state.

[Mike Thick]

I believe that Greitens will win in the end, but it could go either way.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Chris Koster by 5 points

[JMT]

I think the race is a toss up until election day, but I think Greitens wins by 2 or 3 points.

[RogueBeaver]

I believe that Greitens will win in the end, but it could go either way.

[jamestroll]

Chris Koster will win. It will either be a tight finish or a decisive margin. He is about as perfect fit for the State of Missouri that any Democrat can be. He is both pro labor and pro gun for instance.

He also is a different type of Democrat, the Republican kind. I do this his party switch in 2007 was partially opportunistic, but he was not a particularly conservative GOP State Senator either. It was a combination of is views being to the left of the caucus, and he did not want to face Michael Gibbons in a Republican Primary for Attorney General.

And this is funny, but a unity event for the Missouri GOP slate has been postponed, likely due to rifts between Brunner and Greitens.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/sources-missouri-republican-unity-event-scuttled-by-continuing-brunner-greitens/article_0ea3bfa2-e340-56b6-8706-78acbc1d793d.html

[Heisenberg]

I believe that Greitens will win in the end, but it could go either way.

[Xing]

I'd like to see more polls, but I'm guessing Greitens in a nailbiter.

[/]

Greitens, obviously.

[Ebsy]

Greitens, obviously.

I think you're going to be in for a surprise.

[jamestroll]

Greitens, obviously.

I think you're going to be in for a surprise.

I love how everyone is so confident of Koster losing. Missouri is conservative, yes. But it could well be the least partisan of the conservative states with regards to statewide contests. Trump is not going to win in a blow out in MO either.

[Breton Racer]

Current polls show Koster up 9, he wins 54-45, the endorsement from the Farm Bureau should help him with rural voters.

[IceSpear]

Greitens, obviously.

I think you're going to be in for a surprise.

I love how everyone is so confident of Koster losing. Missouri is conservative, yes. But it could well be the least partisan of the conservative states with regards to statewide contests. Trump is not going to win in a blow out in MO either.

I bet some of the people who think Koster is doomed because "muh missouri red state" think Justice will win in WV. 

[jamestroll]

Greitens, obviously.

I think you're going to be in for a surprise.

I love how everyone is so confident of Koster losing. Missouri is conservative, yes. But it could well be the least partisan of the conservative states with regards to statewide contests. Trump is not going to win in a blow out in MO either.

I bet some of the people who think Koster is doomed because "muh missouri red state" think Justice will win in WV. 

Yes. Missouri is dead on the presidential level for Democrats. Independents in Missouri lean heavily Republican. Romney got 59% of them in 2012.

But the large number of independents in Missouri also keeps the door open for Democrats to win statewide.