Something that actually helps Republicans in state legislatures

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I thought of something that actually helps Republicans in elections for the state legislatures, and it will last until the next redistricting: Republican districts are losing population in droves, and districts like this are actually getting more Republican. So we're getting more districts with very few people, that are getting more Republican - even if Republicans are becoming less popular throughout the state or nation.

So you might have a rural district that's represented by a Democrat, but all the Democratic voters are moving out of the district, causing a Republican to win next time.

There really isn't a whole lot you can do about it either.

[smoltchanov]

The more important thing (IMHO, as usual) immensely helping Republicans on state legislative level is atrocious overconcentration of Democratic voters in relatively few urban (and, usually, minority-dominated) districts. What for do Democrats need 95-98% Democratic state legislative districts in NYC, Philadelphia, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, and, in fact, almost any other big metropolitan area, when these districts would almost as reliably elect Democrats being 60-65% democratic???. One third (at least) of the votes in such districts is simply wasted...

Of course there are some similar Republican districts (in Utah, for example), but - much less of them.

[KingSweden]

This is a fair point. It will be interesting to see how this effects redistricting in the 20s

[Virginiá]

I thought of something that actually helps Republicans in elections for the state legislatures, and it will last until the next redistricting:

...

The only real "solution" for Democrats at this current point in time is to win a number of gubernatorial races in 2018 in critical states, as they can't really count on holding at least 1 legislative chamber in 2021. Even if they did, it's not unlikely that those Democrats would try and strike a deal rigging their own map in exchange for the GOP rigging their own chamber's map.

Depending on how long the Democratic coalition piles into these vote sinks, Democrats could be in a hole downballot in many states for some time to come.

[Kingpoleon]

Your credibility is low for a reason, and this is really grasping at straws.

I can name one bad prediction of yours right off the back:

I'm pretty sure Kasich will be held under 60%. I get Cincinnati media.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Your credibility is low for a reason, and this is really grasping at straws.

I can name one bad prediction of yours right off the back:

I'm pretty sure Kasich will be held under 60%. I get Cincinnati media.

Yeah, I admit I was wrong when I was the only person who said the Democrats would take back Congress in 2006, and Obama would win Indiana in 2008.

Oh, wait...

[Kingpoleon]

Begich isn't gonna lose obviously.

I'm not buying [McConell up eight], especially since they have Cotton up by 5 (right after another poll showed him down by 2).

The WKU poll that was Conway +5 polled an equal number of Democrats and Republicans - even though Democrats have a significant membership edge in Kentucky. Conway has to be ahead by a lot more than 5.

Beshear is +12, Grimes is +13, Edelen is +8. The GOP never had a chance of beating them.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Begich isn't gonna lose obviously.

I'm not buying [McConell up eight], especially since they have Cotton up by 5 (right after another poll showed him down by 2).

The WKU poll that was Conway +5 polled an equal number of Democrats and Republicans - even though Democrats have a significant membership edge in Kentucky. Conway has to be ahead by a lot more than 5.

Beshear is +12, Grimes is +13, Edelen is +8. The GOP never had a chance of beating them.

Ever hear of hacked voting machines?

[Higgs]

Begich isn't gonna lose obviously.

I'm not buying [McConell up eight], especially since they have Cotton up by 5 (right after another poll showed him down by 2).

The WKU poll that was Conway +5 polled an equal number of Democrats and Republicans - even though Democrats have a significant membership edge in Kentucky. Conway has to be ahead by a lot more than 5.

Beshear is +12, Grimes is +13, Edelen is +8. The GOP never had a chance of beating them.

Ever hear of hacked voting machines?

Brought to you by infowars.com!

[muon2]

I thought of something that actually helps Republicans in elections for the state legislatures, and it will last until the next redistricting:

...

The only real "solution" for Democrats at this current point in time is to win a number of gubernatorial races in 2018 in critical states, as they can't really count on holding at least 1 legislative chamber in 2021. Even if they did, it's not unlikely that those Democrats would try and strike a deal rigging their own map in exchange for the GOP rigging their own chamber's map.

Depending on how long the Democratic coalition piles into these vote sinks, Democrats could be in a hole downballot in many states for some time to come.

But the Dem solution would be to do what they did in IL - create a number of long fingers anchored in the city and running out to or beyond the suburbs. That's as bad of a gerrymander as the Pubs in their states. Neither should be preferred by the public.

[Skye]

Begich isn't gonna lose obviously.

I'm not buying [McConell up eight], especially since they have Cotton up by 5 (right after another poll showed him down by 2).

The WKU poll that was Conway +5 polled an equal number of Democrats and Republicans - even though Democrats have a significant membership edge in Kentucky. Conway has to be ahead by a lot more than 5.

Beshear is +12, Grimes is +13, Edelen is +8. The GOP never had a chance of beating them.

Ever hear of hacked voting machines?

smh

[Virginiá]

But the Dem solution would be to do what they did in IL - create a number of long fingers anchored in the city and running out to or beyond the suburbs. That's as bad of a gerrymander as the Pubs in their states. Neither should be preferred by the public.

Yes, that's possible, but I was talking more about Democrats being able to block Republican gerrymanders in 2021-2022. Winning critical gubernatorial races in 2018 would probably be much more effective than trying to hold one or more legislature chambers through 2020-2022. How feasable is it for Democrats to capture, say, the MI State House and hold it through '22? Or WI State Senate? Or either PA chamber? Even if Democrats had a blowout this cycle and somehow took back numerous chambers in the rust belt/other critical states, what are the chances they can hold it for 6 years, or at least '20-'22?

The best investment idea right now seems to be winning the gov races in MI/WI/PA/OH/FL, among others, in 2018, which is an extremely ambitious feat, especially given what people suspect to be another rout in '18. At this point, we are just trying to force fair maps in states that matter, House-wise.

[windjammer]

But the Dem solution would be to do what they did in IL - create a number of long fingers anchored in the city and running out to or beyond the suburbs. That's as bad of a gerrymander as the Pubs in their states. Neither should be preferred by the public.

Yes, that's possible, but I was talking more about Democrats being able to block Republican gerrymanders in 2021-2022. Winning critical gubernatorial races in 2018 would probably be much more effective than trying to hold one or more legislature chambers through 2020-2022. How feasable is it for Democrats to capture, say, the MI State House and hold it through '22? Or WI State Senate? Or either PA chamber? Even if Democrats had a blowout this cycle and somehow took back numerous chambers in the rust belt/other critical states, what are the chances they can hold it for 6 years, or at least '20-'22?

The best investment idea right now seems to be winning the gov races in MI/WI/PA/OH/FL, among others, in 2018, which is an extremely ambitious feat, especially given what people suspect to be another rout in '18. At this point, we are just trying to force fair maps in states that matter, House-wise.

In Florida, I recall Dereich saying the Governor can't veto redistricting plan.

[ElectionsGuy]

This + higher concentration of Democrats than Republicans in areas means state legislatures are off the bat harder for Democrats to obtain.

[Virginiá]

In Florida, I recall Dereich saying the Governor can't veto redistricting plan.

He is half-right. The governor cannot veto state legislative maps, as they are enacted via a joint resolution. However, the Congressional map is put into place via regular legislation, which is indeed subject to a veto.

FL will probably be lower priority as the Fair Districts amendment forbids gerrymandering, but it took a long time to fix the maps. We did not actually get fair maps until Dec 2015, basically wasting 2 major elections. It's critical we have fair maps from the start so we don't squander any opportunities in the House.

Further, it's not entirely clear how well gerrymandering lawsuits will play out once Chiles' State Supreme Court justices retire in 2019. For instance, Polston, a Crist/GOP appointment completely disagreed with the entire ruling for the fixed maps and Canady, another Republican also voted against the ruling. It worries me that if a Republican wins again in 2018, the court will then be 100% Republican by 2021-2022 and may defer "fixed" maps to whatever the legislature provides. I think everyone can imagine how that will play out.

The next Governor will appoint 3 justices, and I believe it's important we have at least a modicum of balance on the bench, given what is at stake during next redistricting.

[Badger]

Begich isn't gonna lose obviously.

I'm not buying [McConell up eight], especially since they have Cotton up by 5 (right after another poll showed him down by 2).

The WKU poll that was Conway +5 polled an equal number of Democrats and Republicans - even though Democrats have a significant membership edge in Kentucky. Conway has to be ahead by a lot more than 5.

Beshear is +12, Grimes is +13, Edelen is +8. The GOP never had a chance of beating them.

Ever hear of hacked voting machines?

You're serious, aren't you?

Your tin foil hat just slipped.

[Mister Mets]

This (er- the first post, not the conspiracy theory that came later) is an interesting argument, but are we sure that it's happening? Has anyone crunched the numbers on this?