MyAJC: Georgia Republicans scrambling to defend it for Trump

[HillOfANight]

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/is-this-the-election-that-turns-georgia-into-a-bat/nr68c/

The takeaway from the article is that Republicans are very scared. Local Democrats want Clinton investment, but the Clinton campaign is ignoring them, since GA is more essential to Trump winning.

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The AJC plans to release a GA poll next week. It seems like they're implying it's close like Landmark, but they think Trump will eventually lead near November, like the Nunn vs Perdue race.

[Dr. Arch]

Georgia 2016 = Virginia 2000? I think GA is actually more likely to flip than AZ.

Lots of Educateds in the ATL area. It's very possible GA is running away from them quickly this cycle.

[Podgy the Bear]

Georgia will be very difficult to flip for the foreseeable future.  The population migration is different from Virginia or North Carolina--states that have moved to the center much more rapidly than Georgia.   In this state, there is an influx of people who are minorities, business people, evangelical type families--all of which creates somewhat of a wash on the liberal/conservative tilt.

The city of Atlanta (Fulton/DeKalb counties) is solidly Democratic and the near suburbs are in that direction as well.  But the exurban counties of Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall, Paulding, and Walton have had tremendous growth and are delivering the huge Republican majorities.  And go a little north of those counties, and the Democratic presence has virtually disappeared.

I suspect it will end up a 5-7 point victory for Trump in November.    

[ag]

Georgia is almost certainly out of reach. But if there is enough money, Clinton should feign campaigning there. Make Trump spend his resources on defence.

[Xing]

I could definitely see Georgia ending up close, but I think it's a bit too soon for it to flip, unless Trump absolutely implodes. It's a given that Hillary will dominate Atlanta, but there are still many rural voters, as well as voters in smaller to medium-sized cities that will help Trump.

[JerryArkansas]

This illustrates perfectly why I'm not as worried about the race as some.  If Hillary and company thought they were losing, they would be doing exactly this.  Scrambling in Lean Dem states. 

[HillOfANight]

The city of Atlanta (Fulton/DeKalb counties) is solidly Democratic and the near suburbs are in that direction as well.  But the exurban counties of Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall, Paulding, and Walton have had tremendous growth and are delivering the huge Republican majorities.

Are those counties actually organically growing (population growth/ out of state migration), or is it just white flight from Cobb/Gwinnett?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zac-mccrary/sweet-georgia-blue_b_3385459.html

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[Ebsy]

Obviously Georgia is an extremely uphill battle for Clinton, and the problem for those looking for investment from Clinton is that by the time she wins it, she will already be winning by a near landslide.

[HillOfANight]

Don't think it makes sense for her to invest here if her purpose is to win the presidency (especially since she's leading in NC), but if she has a ton of cash, why not lay the groundwork for future elections, and future Georgia Senators/Governors...

[Mehmentum]

I feel like there are better 'reach' states to compete in.  Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri all have competitive Senate/Governor's races, which make investing in them more tempting.

[Podgy the Bear]

The city of Atlanta (Fulton/DeKalb counties) is solidly Democratic and the near suburbs are in that direction as well.  But the exurban counties of Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall, Paulding, and Walton have had tremendous growth and are delivering the huge Republican majorities.

Are those counties actually organically growing (population growth/ out of state migration), or is it just white flight from Cobb/Gwinnett?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zac-mccrary/sweet-georgia-blue_b_3385459.html

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It's a combination of both.  In migration of minorities and out migration of whites with Henry, Douglas, Rockdale, south Gwinnett, and south Cobb.  White flight to the exurban counties (though to be fair, there are growing minority populations as well).

This follows what happened 30-40 years ago in metro Atlanta.  In the 1960 and 1970s, DeKalb and Clayton counties were the Republican counties in a largely Democratic Georgia--just the opposite today.

[Seriously?]

LOLs. The AJC. I haven't met a right-leaning reporter from that paper yet.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Every neo-Confederate clown will be coming out to vote for Trump. No chance for victory.

[DrScholl]

I think there is a possibility that Georgia could flip. There are number of college educated whites in counties like Cobb and Gwinnett, which is a group of voters that Trump is not polling great with. There has also been an increase in Hispanic voter registration and while Hispanics don't make up a huge part of the electorate, the vote could factor in greatly in a close race.

[dirks]

Georgia for Clinton is Pennsylvania for Trump. A tease. Not going to happen for either, not in 2016 at least

[Devils30]

Demographics probably cut the GOP lead from 8 to 5-5.5 or so. That said, Hillary will need to win more college educated whites in the Atlanta area to have a chance. I could honestly see her coming like only 3% short, or even winning it if Trump completely implodes.

[HillOfANight]

LOLs. The AJC. I haven't met a right-leaning reporter from that paper yet.

Why does a paper need a partisan reporter?

http://kylewingfield.blog.myajc.com/
But FYI, Kyle Wingfield is the AJC's conservative columnist.

[Adam Griffin]

Over the past eight years, Georgia's shift in demographic terms (i.e.: likely voters) has been enough to improve Democrats' hypothetical margin of loss/victory in the state by one point each year; take the 2008 support figures for each group and project them onto the likely 2016 Georgia electorate, and McCain +5 becomes Clinton +3.

I'm not saying that is going to happen - in fact, I think it won't - but it does illustrate that a) there is some wiggle room there in between maxing out what is theoretically possible based on what happened eight years ago and what happened four years ago, and b) this isn't a situation comparable to PA or any other fool's gold state. The problem is that GA is highly inelastic and has relatively low rates of voter participation and registration overall. If people voted in GA at rates like they do in the Midwest, for instance, it'd be game over for the GOP. Instead, it is probably going to take another 8 years before GA is considered a truly competitive/lean-Democratic state.

[Inmate Trump]

Clinton won't win, but I think it'll be close. She should spend here to force Trump to waste his money to hold the state.

As for this Georgian, I will be voting for Clinton enthusiastically and without question.