Trump and Nevada

[JRP1994]

Vote!

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Since the 2000 election Nevada has shifted 16% in demographics. If the hispanics really hate trump like some of the pure hispanic based polls say they do = not a chance in hell he can win neveda.

[windjammer]

I won't believe it because polls under-sample Dems/Hispanics

[Vega]

Yeah, if Hispanic numbers are in Nevada what they are nationwide, or even close to it, he just can't win.

[ProudModerate2]

It's not only how many consecutive polls he is shown as leading, but by how much.
I do believe that the Hispanics/Dems are under-sampled in polls, in Nevada.
So if "many" polls show trump leading by just 2 or 3%, then it could mean "little" as to who will actually take Nevada.

[LLR]

@xingkerui

[Joe Republic]

but don't you know about trump's #vegascasinoconnections

[Maxwell]

Truly, I think hispanics in spanish speaking households are being undersampled, and Dem voter regisitration is rising much faster there than Republican voter registration. Additionally, most of the Nevada polls that have come out so far seem super unreliable.

[Xing]

The Trump +5 poll alone surely proves it. I mean, we should be convinced that Trump is competitive in Oregon and Connecticut, while Clinton is competitive in Kentucky, right?

[hopper]

Truly, I think hispanics in spanish speaking households are being undersampled, and Dem voter regisitration is rising much faster there than Republican voter registration. Additionally, most of the Nevada polls that have come out so far seem super unreliable.

In Nevada up to May 24th, 2016 party registration is as follows:

Democrats: 518,124
Republicans: 452,028

Republicans lead in Party Registration except for Clark County which the Dems lead 388,484 to 272,879 and the 2 parties are nearly tied in Mineral County which the Republicans lead by a grand total of 94 voters.

[Maxwell]

Truly, I think hispanics in spanish speaking households are being undersampled, and Dem voter regisitration is rising much faster there than Republican voter registration. Additionally, most of the Nevada polls that have come out so far seem super unreliable.

In Nevada up to May 24th, 2016 party registration is as follows:

Democrats: 518,124
Republicans: 452,028

Republicans lead in Party Registration except for Clark County which the Dems lead 388,484 to 272,879 and the 2 parties are nearly tied in Mineral County which the Republicans lead by a grand total of 94 voters.

Republicans used to be ahead in terms of voter registration statewide I believe.

[hopper]

Truly, I think hispanics in spanish speaking households are being undersampled, and Dem voter regisitration is rising much faster there than Republican voter registration. Additionally, most of the Nevada polls that have come out so far seem super unreliable.

In Nevada up to May 24th, 2016 party registration is as follows:

Democrats: 518,124
Republicans: 452,028

Republicans lead in Party Registration except for Clark County which the Dems lead 388,484 to 272,879 and the 2 parties are nearly tied in Mineral County which the Republicans lead by a grand total of 94 voters.

Republicans used to be ahead in terms of voter registration statewide I believe.

What year were the Republicans in the registration lead in NV?

[Minnesota Mike]

Truly, I think hispanics in spanish speaking households are being undersampled, and Dem voter regisitration is rising much faster there than Republican voter registration. Additionally, most of the Nevada polls that have come out so far seem super unreliable.

In Nevada up to May 24th, 2016 party registration is as follows:

Democrats: 518,124
Republicans: 452,028

Republicans lead in Party Registration except for Clark County which the Dems lead 388,484 to 272,879 and the 2 parties are nearly tied in Mineral County which the Republicans lead by a grand total of 94 voters.

Republicans used to be ahead in terms of voter registration statewide I believe.

What year were the Republicans in the registration lead in NV?

March 2007, before the Obama campaign and the Harry Reid machine fired up prior to the 2008 caucusas.

http://nvsos.gov/SOSElectionPages/voter-reg/2007/0307maina.aspx

[hopper]

Truly, I think hispanics in spanish speaking households are being undersampled, and Dem voter regisitration is rising much faster there than Republican voter registration. Additionally, most of the Nevada polls that have come out so far seem super unreliable.

In Nevada up to May 24th, 2016 party registration is as follows:

Democrats: 518,124
Republicans: 452,028

Republicans lead in Party Registration except for Clark County which the Dems lead 388,484 to 272,879 and the 2 parties are nearly tied in Mineral County which the Republicans lead by a grand total of 94 voters.

Republicans used to be ahead in terms of voter registration statewide I believe.

What year were the Republicans in the registration lead in NV?

March 2007, before the Obama campaign and the Harry Reid machine fired up prior to the 2008 caucusas.

http://nvsos.gov/SOSElectionPages/voter-reg/2007/0307maina.aspx

Well the 2 parties were nearly tied in party registration.

[Vosem]

It depends more on the source. If PPP or CBS or Mason-Dixon or Suffolk (either high-quality pollsters, or those with known Democratic leans) start to show Trump ahead, then I'll believe it, and it would only take 1-2. Without data like that, I'll default to demographics and history, which both suggest a high-single digits Hillary win.

[Nyvin]

Truly, I think hispanics in spanish speaking households are being undersampled, and Dem voter regisitration is rising much faster there than Republican voter registration. Additionally, most of the Nevada polls that have come out so far seem super unreliable.

In Nevada up to May 24th, 2016 party registration is as follows:

Democrats: 518,124
Republicans: 452,028

Republicans lead in Party Registration except for Clark County which the Dems lead 388,484 to 272,879 and the 2 parties are nearly tied in Mineral County which the Republicans lead by a grand total of 94 voters.

The June Figures are 627,079 Dem and 521,886 GOP.   

https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4330

[Human]

At least 5

[hopper]

Truly, I think hispanics in spanish speaking households are being undersampled, and Dem voter regisitration is rising much faster there than Republican voter registration. Additionally, most of the Nevada polls that have come out so far seem super unreliable.

In Nevada up to May 24th, 2016 party registration is as follows:

Democrats: 518,124
Republicans: 452,028

Republicans lead in Party Registration except for Clark County which the Dems lead 388,484 to 272,879 and the 2 parties are nearly tied in Mineral County which the Republicans lead by a grand total of 94 voters.

The June Figures are 627,079 Dem and 521,886 GOP.    

https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4330

Thats quite a jump in one month getting 109,000 more people to register as Dems while the Republicans got 69,800 to register with them.

It looks like the Dems are closing up the Registration Gap in Washoe County a little bit too.

[mencken]

Trump doing well in a legalized gambling state with large numbers of poorly educated whites is not a tough sell for me.

[5280]

Trump could actually win NV and lose CO while winning the election. He needs to campaign in NV more if he's serious about winning.

[Joe Republic]

Trump doing well in a legalized gambling state with large numbers of poorly educated whites is not a tough sell for me.

Oh yes, I definitely think Trump has unusual strength here.  He should lose the state by 10-15 going by demographics alone.  It's pretty clear that won't be happening.  Don't underestimate the political machine capabilities of the Reno and Vegas resorts as we saw during the primary.

Please describe the workings of these 'resort machines' you speak of.

[Senator-elect Spark]

He will win Reno and perform better than expected in Clark county.

[Maxwell]

Obama generally over-performed the polls, but he over-performed in Nevada even more - by a whole 5 points. I''m not sure that will translate to this election, but I think it's something to consider.

[Mr. Reactionary]

At least 5

[Likely Voter]

It is clear Trump is more competitive in NV than CO unlike past elections, otherwise Team Clinton wouldn't still be airing ads in NV while pulling out of CO.  The question is more about whether NV is trending R like IA and is it really a tipping point state and more R than PA, VA and CO. I think polls are capturing how Trump is doing better with the non-college whites, especially in the Reno area, but are still missing the Latino vote.  So yes it is competitive, but is it his ticket to victory over PA? Probably not.