The Future of Russia

[Californiadreaming]

What do you think that the future of Russia will look like over the next several years and over the next several decades?

[dead0man]

That's really the $50,000 question isn't it?  I don't think anybody knows.

[Californiadreaming]

That's really the $50,000 question isn't it?  I don't think anybody knows.

Do you have any guesses, though?

[2952-0-0]

Eventually evolve into a modern western style democracy, could become more powerful than the United States at some point.

lol

[Californiadreaming]

Eventually evolve into a modern western style democracy, could become more powerful than the United States at some point.

The population disadvantage that Russia has in comparison to the U.S. right now is immense, though. Indeed, you are comparing a country with 147 million people to a country with 323 million people!

[PresidentSamTilden]

Two of the big trends I look at with Russia are that (1): Russia's entire economy seems to be based off oil and gas exports...they have a lot of these resources, but they are going to start declining and eventually will be exhausted. In addition, climate change is a massive concern that could impact the value of the resources.

Will they invest big in energy alternatives and find another way to survive, or do they double down on oil and gas? I know which way they're leaning, but as Robert Plant would say, you can always change the road you're on, haha.

Speaking of climate change...(2)What happens to Siberia? Do these lands become more habitable, even desirable? Or does the methane under the melting permafrost spell doom for civilization? At this point, I don't think anyone knows for sure. But if we don't all die due to runaway global warming, Siberia could potentially become very valuable, and could potentially even be contested. There was a half serious movement a couple years ago to have Siberia secede and join the U.S...who knows what could happen?

Other big things include the succession after Putin and how they deal with the rising instability in the Islamic world.

[dead0man]

Hey, that's not a crazy idea.  Russia could sell huge chunks of it's east to any number of potential buyers.  Japan, the PRC, the US, Canada...I suppose that's it.  I'm guessing Mongolia isn't flush with cash?  Perhaps private investors?  How many trillions of dollars could they make?  Many I'd bet.

[PresidentSamTilden]

Hey, that's not a crazy idea.  Russia could sell huge chunks of it's east to any number of potential buyers.  Japan, the PRC, the US, Canada...I suppose that's it.  I'm guessing Mongolia isn't flush with cash?  Perhaps private investors?  How many trillions of dollars could they make?  Many I'd bet.

Mongolia, huh? hmm...



"There will be no money. Putin will surrender the territory, or his life."

[Crumpets]

Here's my best guess:

United Russia and the aligned groups are becoming too large and unwieldy to keep their current form and it's only Putin that can keep such a large coalition in one piece. Enough oligarchs support Putin, but a crummy economy and rising nationalistic public sentiment might make this less the case. I highly doubt there will be some massive Arab Spring/Euromaidan style overthrow of Putin, but once he starts to fade in relevance and maybe hands the Presidency to Medvedev or some other crony for good, some more established oligarchs will start jockeying for influence to fill the power vacuum.

The result, I predict, will be a splintering of United Russia into nationalistic and more moderate factions, and probably the establishment of a lot of new political parties each headed by one or two oligarchs - much like what is seen in countries like Ukraine and Moldova currently. Russia is still a largely anti-European and anti-Westernist state, but the imperialists are reduced to a vocal minority and Russia's standing in the international stage improves somewhat. The new multi-party, crony capitalist system leads to more electoral pluralism, a greater respect for human rights, and some improvements in the economy, but brings the politics of the country to a standstill.

Eventually (probably 30-50 years down the road) these small reforms have brought up a new generation of well-educated middle class Russians who look to the example of other countries around the world and start to consolidate the many parties into a few blocs - probably one built on nationalism, anti-westernism, and Soviet nostalgia (a weakening force by this point), a more pro-European group, and maybe a left-wing nationalist group. Russia still loves to veto UNSC resolutions and bash the evil west, but eventually these become the only real distinctions between Russia and the rest of the global community; the economies are much more inter-dependent and invading neighboring states is entirely a thing of the past.

[Seneca]

Once oil production hits a serious decline, which may well be happen this year if the first half-year's declines are anything to go by, Russia will become even more of a basket case. Expect a deep recession, even worse than what they are currently experiences. How the respond to those conditions is anyone's guess, but based on events over the past two years, I would expect more foreign adventures, perhaps even the ignition of a major war with NATO or China.

[Derpist]

Once oil production hits a serious decline, which may well be happen this year if the first half-year's declines are anything to go by, Russia will become even more of a basket case. Expect a deep recession, even worse than what they are currently experiences. How the respond to those conditions is anyone's guess, but based on events over the past two years, I would expect more foreign adventures, perhaps even the ignition of a major war with NATO or China.

Oil has been in decline for a while. There's a reason why Venezuela has collapsed so dramatically. The point being that Russia is no Venezuela.

[Blair]

+ Economy in complete collapse, due to fall in oil prices
+ Extremely unfit population, with soaring HIV and alcoholism rates
+ Very few allies in the world, kicked out of G8

[Kingpoleon]

Russian sources say: Budushcheye Rossii/Будущее России