Are any countries likely to follow Russia's precedent & annex foreign territory?

[Californiadreaming]

Are any countries likely to follow the precedent of what Russia did in Crimea back in 2014 and annex a part of another country's territory in the future?

If so, exactly which countries and exactly which territories are you thinking of here?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Poland will conquer Iraq. The Polaqi race will rise again.

[Californiadreaming]

Poland will conquer Iraq. The Polaqi race will rise again.

Polraqia?

[Hash]

Colombia will reclaim what is rightfully hers, and annex Panamá.

[Californiadreaming]

Colombia will reclaim what is rightfully hers, and annex Panamá.

Only in your dreams.

[parochial boy]

Hálditšohkka from Norway to Finland.

Not sure that counts as an annexation though.

[Frodo]

China could eventually reclaim Mongolia and other territories seized by Russia, following the 'what's good for the goose is good for the gander' logic:

[Tetro Kornbluth]

That isn't really a done thing anymore. And only powerful states would get away with it (and would be more inclined to impose puppets than actual annexation anyway).

Am I right in thinking that the last violent annexation before Crimea was Kuwait in the run-up to Gulf War I?

[evergreenarbor]

China could eventually reclaim Mongolia and other territories seized by Russia, following the 'what's good for the goose is good for the gander' logic:

I'm pretty sure that a war between China and Russia would be catastrophic.

[Californiadreaming]

China could eventually reclaim Mongolia and other territories seized by Russia, following the 'what's good for the goose is good for the gander' logic:

Mongolia? Maybe, but still extremely unlikely, in my honest opinion. After all, China would probably endure extremely crippling international sanctions as a result of such a move that would make the West's sanctions in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine look like absolute child's play in comparison.

As for any Russian territory, I certainly don't think that this is going to happen. Why? Because Russia can nuke the heck out of China and will almost certainly far better in a Russo-Chinese nuclear war than China will fare. After all, at least most of Russia's population lives beyond the Urals--very far away from China. In contrast, most of China's population appear to be easy targets for Russia's nuclear weapons.

[Californiadreaming]

China could eventually reclaim Mongolia and other territories seized by Russia, following the 'what's good for the goose is good for the gander' logic:

I'm pretty sure that a war between China and Russia would be catastrophic.

Oh, certainly! Indeed, such a war would almost certainly go nuclear considering that, as far as I know, China is likely to defeat Russia in a conventional war.

Also, though, if you are curious, a Russo-Chinese nuclear war will almost certainly result in a (massively Pyrrhic) Russian victory due to the fact that, for geographical and logistical reasons, Russia's nuclear weapons appear to be much more capable of hitting China's major population centers than vice versa. Indeed, as far as I know, most of Russia's population lives beyond the Urals--in other words, very far away from China.

[Californiadreaming]

Am I right in thinking that the last violent annexation before Crimea was Kuwait in the run-up to Gulf War I?

If you exclude the ISIS Caliphate's "annexation" of various Syrian and Iraqi territory, then Yes, I think that you are correct in regards to this.

[Californiadreaming]

That isn't really a done thing anymore. And only powerful states would get away with it (and would be more inclined to impose puppets than actual annexation anyway).

Were both Indonesia and Morocco powerful states back in 1975, though?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Am I right in thinking that the last violent annexation before Crimea was Kuwait in the run-up to Gulf War I?

If you exclude the ISIS Caliphate's "annexation" of various Syrian and Iraqi territory, then Yes, I think that you are correct in regards to this.

Oh I should added 'from Internationally recognized states'

That isn't really a done thing anymore. And only powerful states would get away with it (and would be more inclined to impose puppets than actual annexation anyway).

Were both Indonesia and Morocco powerful states back in 1975, though?

Both of those annexations only make 'sense' in the post-colonial and Cold War context which no longer is really a factor in 2016.

[Californiadreaming]

Am I right in thinking that the last violent annexation before Crimea was Kuwait in the run-up to Gulf War I?

If you exclude the ISIS Caliphate's "annexation" of various Syrian and Iraqi territory, then Yes, I think that you are correct in regards to this.

Oh I should added 'from Internationally recognized states'

OK.

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Were both Indonesia and Morocco powerful states back in 1975, though?
[/quote]

Both of those annexations only make 'sense' in the post-colonial and Cold War context which no longer is really a factor in 2016.
[/quote]

Couldn't one similarly argue that Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea is simply an attempt by Russia to rectify a Cold War-era injustice, though? After all, Crimea was previously a part of the Russian SFSR all of the way up to 1954!

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Not quite the same, is it though?

[Californiadreaming]

Not quite the same, is it though?

Frankly, it depends on how exactly you view it. After all, Russia's era of colonialism de facto didn't really end until 1991.

[2952-0-0]

Mongolia? Maybe, but still extremely unlikely, in my honest opinion. After all, China would probably endure extremely crippling international sanctions as a result of such a move that would make the West's sanctions in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine look like absolute child's play in comparison.

Ridiculous. China doesn't need to invade Mongolia to influence it. Mongolia's entire population is less than that of the old city of Beijing alone. China is already Mongolia's dominant economic partner and will only become further so.

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Putin justified taking Crimea by saying it is as sacred to Russia as Jerusalem is as sacred to the Jews. The concerned territories in the Russian Far East were barely settled by Chinese people and have zero place in Chinese lore. It's as likely as Russia taking back Alaska.

[Californiadreaming]

Mongolia? Maybe, but still extremely unlikely, in my honest opinion. After all, China would probably endure extremely crippling international sanctions as a result of such a move that would make the West's sanctions in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine look like absolute child's play in comparison.

Ridiculous. China doesn't need to invade Mongolia to influence it. Mongolia's entire population is less than that of the old city of Beijing alone. China is already Mongolia's dominant economic partner and will only become further so.

This is why I said that this is "extremely unlikely," though.

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Putin justified taking Crimea by saying it is as sacred to Russia as Jerusalem is as sacred to the Jews.[/quote]

Putin might use a different excuse to annex (parts of) northern Kazakhstan in the future if Nazarbayev will ever decide to exit Russia's orbit, though.

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Do these territories have a lot of natural resources, though?

[2952-0-0]

Putin might use a different excuse to annex (parts of) northern Kazakhstan in the future if Nazarbayev will ever decide to exit Russia's orbit, though.

The Kazakh government foresaw this and is now subsidizing the settlement of its northern regions. Officially it's irrespective of nationality, but ethnic Kazakhs are most likely to make use.

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Whatever they are, they're not worth losing your own cities. Especially when these same resources are already extracted from somewhere in Africa.

Couldn't one similarly argue that Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea is simply an attempt by Russia to rectify a Cold War-era injustice, though? After all, Crimea was previously a part of the Russian SFSR all of the way up to 1954!

Territory was also transferred from the Estonian SSR to the Russian SFSR. This is nonsense and everyone knows it.

[Californiadreaming]

Putin might use a different excuse to annex (parts of) northern Kazakhstan in the future if Nazarbayev will ever decide to exit Russia's orbit, though.

The Kazakh government foresaw this and is now subsidizing the settlement of its northern regions. Officially it's irrespective of nationality, but ethnic Kazakhs are most likely to make use.

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Whatever they are, they're not worth losing your own cities. Especially when these same resources are already extracted from somewhere in Africa.

Very good point(s)!

Couldn't one similarly argue that Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea is simply an attempt by Russia to rectify a Cold War-era injustice, though? After all, Crimea was previously a part of the Russian SFSR all of the way up to 1954!

Territory was also transferred from the Estonian SSR to the Russian SFSR. This is nonsense and everyone knows it.
[/quote][/quote]

Actually, I think that Estonia did, in fact, make this argument after the end of the Cold War but then eventually gave up on this issue.

Also, though, I think that this former Estonian territory is now Russian-majority. In contrast, Crimea was Russian-majority in both 2014 and 1954 and thus certainly isn't comparable to this former Estonian territory.

[ag]

China could eventually reclaim Mongolia and other territories seized by Russia, following the 'what's good for the goose is good for the gander' logic:

I'm pretty sure that a war between China and Russia would be catastrophic.

Oh, certainly! Indeed, such a war would almost certainly go nuclear considering that, as far as I know, China is likely to defeat Russia in a conventional war.

Also, though, if you are curious, a Russo-Chinese nuclear war will almost certainly result in a (massively Pyrrhic) Russian victory due to the fact that, for geographical and logistical reasons, Russia's nuclear weapons appear to be much more capable of hitting China's major population centers than vice versa. Indeed, as far as I know, most of Russia's population lives beyond the Urals--in other words, very far away from China.

Yeah, something like 3/4, or more, of Russia's population is in Europe. Siberia is very sparsely settled. But missiles fly high.

[Blue3]

What is Russia's population actually like, ethnically, east of the Urals?

Do they feel like they're part of a country, or just conquered peoples (like Native Americans, if they hadn't been so wiped out in the US)?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What is Russia's population actually like, ethnically, east of the Urals?

Do they feel like they're part of a country, or just conquered peoples (like Native Americans, if they hadn't been so wiped out in the US)?

I'm pretty sure most major population centers in Siberia are for the most part ethnically Russian.

[Hash]

What is Russia's population actually like, ethnically, east of the Urals?

Do they feel like they're part of a country, or just conquered peoples (like Native Americans, if they hadn't been so wiped out in the US)?

% Russian in 2010:



The Russian population was even larger across the far north and far east in 1989, and has declined since as a result of the depopulation of those federal subjects. Yakutia being perhaps one of the best examples. Tuva is basically the only place in Siberia which has consistently had a non-Russian majority.