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| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | |-+  People's Pundit Daily Tracking Poll Thread
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Author Topic: People's Pundit Daily Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 12116 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: July 31, 2016, 05:12:47 pm »
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Never heard of those guys, so take it with a grain of salt.

47% Trump (R)
42% Clinton (D)
4% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

The People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll results are based on 3,056 interviews from 7/22/2016 to 7/29/16 (95% confidence interval), are weighted based on demographics from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and based on a likely voter model.



https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/latest-polls/election-2016/us-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/
https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2016/07/30/trump-still-leads-clinton-in-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/
« Last Edit: August 04, 2016, 01:56:30 pm by Likely Voter »Logged



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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2016, 05:17:16 pm »
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Junk poll, obviously, but this isn't even post-DNC.

Just looked at their website. This would be like if Breitbart started doing polls.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2016, 05:19:36 pm by heatcharger »Logged

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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2016, 05:19:25 pm »
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What is this?! :/
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2016, 05:21:09 pm »
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I feel like someone on Atlas just made this up.
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2016, 05:21:35 pm »
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I feel like someone on Atlas just made this up.
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2016, 05:28:04 pm »
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Please don't bother posting updates on this "poll".
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2016, 06:02:28 pm »
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Quote
Benchmark Politics ‏@benchmarkpol  25m25 minutes ago
We have removed the PPDNews poll - they do not meet our basic quality standards.
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2016, 06:27:18 pm »
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Never heard of those guys, so take it with a grain of salt.

47% Trump (R)
42% Clinton (D)
4% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

The People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll results are based on 3,056 interviews from 7/22/2016 to 7/29/16 (95% confidence interval), are weighted based on demographics from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and based on a likely voter model.



https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/latest-polls/election-2016/us-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/
https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2016/07/30/trump-still-leads-clinton-in-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/

No idea who these guys are.

On a very quick look, they appear methodolocally similar to the nbc/survey monkey poll

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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2016, 06:38:10 pm »
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So is this literally a surveymonkey poll they just put up on their website?
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2016, 06:38:36 pm »
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Can we please make a tracking polls mega thread? k thanks
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« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2016, 06:39:28 pm »
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It seems to be a right-wing shop just based on the columnists that they syndicate/use. However, they claim to be accurate.

Does anyone remember them from 2014?

Per their LinkedIn:

Quote
People's Pundit Daily brings you the latest from inside the Beltway with an outside-the-Beltway point of view. From politics to the economy, PPD is a news-reporting pundit of, by, and for the people delivering no-holds barred, in-depth coverage you can trust.

Most accurate 2014 election projection site on the Internet, publishing data-driven analysis daily, as well as the latest news and top stories in the U.S. and around the world.

https://www.linkedin.com/company/peoples-pundit-daily

It seems like their editor, Richard D. Barris, is a Tea Party member.

From what I can find, his analysis in the Republican cycle of 2014 was pretty much spot on, sans North Carolina Senate and Maryland governor (which no one saw). Obviously, that means he can nail a Republican-friendly cycle. Not sure if that means much of anything though.

http://www.teapartytribune.com/2014/08/17/ppds-2014-senate-projections-dont-bank-on-a-wave-and-gop-doesnt-need-one/

https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/news/politics/2014/11/06/ppds-big-debut-most-accurate-election-projection-model-of-2014-hands-down/
« Last Edit: July 31, 2016, 06:59:20 pm by Seriously? »Logged
Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2016, 12:19:36 am »
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Stein ahead of Johnson?  Junk.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2016, 08:20:43 am »
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So is this literally a surveymonkey poll they just put up on their website?


Polling is, to put it mildly, in a transition phase.

Given the explosion of social media, the death of land lines, etc "traditional" random digit dialed telephone polling is, if not quite dead, certainly on its last legs.

We're pretty sure something internet based will replace telephone polling, but EXACTLY what that replacement will be is very much a work in progress.

What survey monkey does is a possibility to potentially replace and/or supplement telephone polls.

Survey Monkey is a service that, as most of us know, allows users to upload a list of emails, and get everybody on the list sent an automated internet based survey.

Survey Monkey has thousands of users, and conducts a million+ surveys a week.

"in theory" one could take a small RANDOM selection of the millions of ongoing survey monkey survey takers and then ask them who they are going to vote for.....

If this data was then weighted by age, race, education, gender, geography, etc it would resemble a traditional probability based survey...

This poll, as well as the NBC/Survey monkey poll, try to do what I have outlined above.

I would put the methodology under "experimental", but assuming good quality control it at least has a chance of working.

It overcomes the major concern of most "panel" based internet polls in that it is a (semi) true "random" selection where the person being surveyed did not, at some point "opt in" - at least for the "horse race" part of the survey.



« Last Edit: August 01, 2016, 08:25:11 am by The Vorlon »Logged

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« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2016, 11:11:22 am »
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Today's numbers (Trump +3%)

Trump 46% (-1)
Clinton 43% (+1)
Johnson 5% (+1)
Stein 4% (--)
Undecided 2% (-1)

Decimals (Trump +2.8%)
Trump 45.9% (-.9%)
Clinton 43.1% (+.9%)
Johnson 5.1% (+1.1%)
Stein 4.3% (-.1%)
Undecided 1.6% (-1.0%)
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« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2016, 11:25:21 am »
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Really? Are we going to post and keep updating every single thing that claims it's a poll? Even benchmark politics sacked this.
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« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2016, 11:30:43 am »
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Really? Are we going to post and keep updating every single thing that claims it's a poll? Even benchmark politics sacked this.

Benchmark Politics also has incentive to show Clinton winning. A David Brock owned company purchased them and the site creators, who still operate it, are openly pro Hillary. I remember these guys the day they started it, posting it on the Hillary reddit after the 3rd primary. Apostleian and mercury something I believe were their usernames.
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« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2016, 11:35:09 am »
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Really? Are we going to post and keep updating every single thing that claims it's a poll? Even benchmark politics sacked this.
This particular group had a pretty good track record in 2014.

I am of the opinion that information is information. You can choose to filter it if you wish. If you look at the trendlines, Hillary! could very well be ahead in the next few days in this poll.

Then your tune will change, of course.
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« Reply #17 on: August 01, 2016, 11:36:35 am »
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Really? Are we going to post and keep updating every single thing that claims it's a poll? Even benchmark politics sacked this.
This particular group had a pretty good track record in 2014.

I am of the opinion that information is information. You can choose to filter it if you wish. If you look at the trendlines, Hillary! could very well be ahead in the next few days in this poll.

Then your tune will change, of course.

No. It won't.
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« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2016, 01:53:08 pm »
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Really? Are we going to post and keep updating every single thing that claims it's a poll? Even benchmark politics sacked this.
This particular group had a pretty good track record in 2014.

I am of the opinion that information is information. You can choose to filter it if you wish. If you look at the trendlines, Hillary! could very well be ahead in the next few days in this poll.

Then your tune will change, of course.
No, just like the La times poll, this is trash no matter who is up.
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« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2016, 10:32:22 am »
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August 1 results
Trump 44.8% (-1.1%)
Clinton 43.3% (+.2%)
Johnson 5.9% (+.8%)
Stein 4.2% (-.1%)
Undecided 1.8% (+.2%)

Margin: Trump +1.5 (-1.3%)
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« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2016, 12:58:05 pm »
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As predicted, Hillary! takes the lead (ever so slightly)

8/2 Results
Clinton 44.1% (+.8%)
Trump 43.9% (-.9%)
Johnson 4.9 (-1.0%)
Stein 4.1% (-.1%)
Undecided 3.0% (+1.2%)
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« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2016, 02:01:06 pm »
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never trust polls that report numbers to one decimal place; unless they've polled like 6,000 people or something.  Those points mean literally nothing and its confusing to include them, makes your poll seem more accurate that it really is.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2016, 02:07:58 pm »
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Reading their articles, this seems like an extreme Republican hack website.

This daily tracker should be deleted.
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« Reply #23 on: August 03, 2016, 02:20:37 pm »
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Reading their articles, this seems like an extreme Republican hack website.

This daily tracker should be deleted.
A data point is a data point as far as I am concerned. I very well know where the source came from and to take it with the requisite amount of skepticism.

These guys may tilt Republican, but their track record in 2014 was nothing to sneeze at. They got everything but North Carolina Senate and Maryland governor correct.
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« Reply #24 on: August 04, 2016, 10:38:08 am »
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8/3 Results
Clinton 44.3% (+.2%)
Trump 43.8% (-.1%)
Johnson 4.9 (+0.1%)
Stein 4.3% (-.2%)
Undecided 2.6% (-.4%)
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