Put a Rating on the US House for 2016 - Summer 2016

[ElectionsGuy]

Previous threads:

Spring 2016
Summer 2016

Likely R, however its getting closer to Lean R by the day.

[windjammer]

Lean rep

[Nyvin]

Still Likely R....unfortunately.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Likely R.

[Suburbia]

Likely R.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Still Safe R

[Higgs]

Still Safe R

[Xing]

Likely R, closer to Safe R than Lean R.

[morgieb]

Likely R. Not completely implausible that the roof completely falls off the House Republicans, but it's pretty unlikely. I suspect given how gerrymandered the House is, it'll be hard to see a 'normal' election flipping it.

[Vega]

In theory there is a path to victory for the Dems, but it's a difficult one. Likely R.

[smoltchanov]

Likely R. Democrats must win ALL theoretically winnable seats (and few other) for majority. In these polarized years that does'n't seems likely. It's not 2008 with Minnick, Bright and similar Democrats winning. In fact - no such Democrats are running AFAIK...

[Kevin]

Likely if not Safe R.

Even if Democrats totally ran the gauntlet on seats in November they would still fall well short of being able to take the House.

Also unlike the Presidental race I just don't sense the momentum being there in the first place.

[pbrower2a]

The path for a Democratic victory is winning lots of R+2 to R+5 House seats. Republicans have the potential for a fantastically-unpopular Presidential nominee. Running against Obama is becoming irrelevant and stale, and possibly even counter-productive.

Make America Great Again? Sure -- if your idea of greatness is the Gilded Age.   

[JerryArkansas]

Lean R.  Trump is starting to drag people down, and Reps are pulling stupids in many of the  primaries found  in competitive districts.  At this point I would expect Republicans to lose 15 seats, with more moving as time goes on.

[heatcharger]

Lean R.  Trump is starting to drag people down, and Reps are pulling stupids in many of the  primaries found  in competitive districts.  At this point I would expect Republicans to lose 15 seats, with more moving as time goes on.

Unfortunately 15 is half of what they need to take back the House. I don't think Democrats anticipated they would have a chance at another wave with Trump, so they are lacking enough quality candidates to get the 30 seats they need.

[windjammer]

Lean R.  Trump is starting to drag people down, and Reps are pulling stupids in many of the  primaries found  in competitive districts.  At this point I would expect Republicans to lose 15 seats, with more moving as time goes on.

Unfortunately 15 is half of what they need to take back the House. I don't think Democrats anticipated they would have a chance at another wave with Trump, so they are lacking enough quality candidates to get the 30 seats they need.

Quality candidates won't be needed if this is a wave though.

[Orser67]

Likely R. It's easy to see Democrats winning 20 House seats, but 30 looks difficult.