Ugh... I was really hoping he would retire so Massie could run.
Which Kentucky Democrat can give him a tough challenge?
No one.
Yeah, likely no one. Democrats put a lot of effort into defeating McConnell last time, and Grimes didn't even come close to winning. As much as I'd like to see McConnell lose, I don't think it's gonna happen
Grimes was objectively a bad candidate, and it was in the middle of a low-turnout Republican wave. Back in 2008 when he was just semi-unpopular he nearly lost to Lunsford, who was also a less than stellar candidate.
I agree that Grimes didn't end up being the best candidate, and nationally the political climate was a disaster for Democrats in 2014. But 2008 provides a perfect contrast; a presidential year with extremely high turnout. 2008, in my opinion, largely was a Democratic wave, unlike 2014, which was an enormous Republican wave. Even in the 2008 political climate, McConnell won by 6 points. Yes, I suppose that's somewhat close, but I wouldn't say he "nearly lost." In fact, I think a 6 point victory is a pretty healthy margin of victory. McConnell aside, Kentucky has also just been voting for more Republicans in recent years, the state is clearly trending Republican. For example, Jack Conway was largely regarded as the frontrunner in last year's Governor race, but Matt Bevin, a candidate with significant political flaws, managed to win by nearly 10 points.
So with that said, is McConnell completely safe for reelection in 2020? Of course not, a lot could change between now and then. I just don't see Democrats recruiting a top tier challenger, and even if they did, I think McConnell still starts the race as the favorite.
