When will Allegheny county, PA go Republican?

[Senator-elect Spark]

Since the surrounding Metro area is trending R. I feel as though the center part of the state will not be enough to deliver a win (it would depend on the margin but still unlikely) so the Republican has to win Allegheny in order to mitigate Philadelphia county.

[Boston Bread]

You mean like this?

(1992 Senate race)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Not any time soon.

[Miles]

Allegheny county has been very stable. In every election since 2000, the Democrat has gotten between 56-57%. Hillary probably runs slightly under that, IMO.

You mean like this?

(1992 Senate race)

Most recent was Corbett in 2010, though he was from there so would have likely gone D otherwise:

[Smash255]

A statewide candidate might win there under the right circumstances (such as in 2010), but the chances are quite slim and will remain so.  For President?  Basically zero anytime soon

[Bandit3 the Worker]

On the 12th of Never.

[ElectionsGuy]

Pittsburgh itself is pretty different than the counties around it, its not necessarily prime territory to swing to Trump or trend Republican (although it definitely did in 2008). It would be pretty hard to win without a landslide.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Kasich probably would have been able to make it close.

[pikachu]

Not any time soon, barring some massive landslide for Republicans. It doesn't strike me as a fertile place for Republicans, Trumpist variety or not. It didn't swing toward Republicans in 2008 when the rest of the surrounding counties did, and trend in 2012 was towards Democrats unlike the rest of Western PA. If the GOP does go in a Trump-y direction, then Trump himself underperformed in Allegheny compared to the rest of Western PA and to the state as a whole, and Kasich did relatively well. From a quick glance at the map, it looks like it was Trump's fourth worse county in the state. The county/Pittsburgh also looks like it's doing a lot better than the rest of the region.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It won't. It doesn't resemble its surrounding areas in Current Year anymore than Austin, TX and Travis County does.

[IceSpear]

When Republicans win PA by double digits (good luck with that)

[Nyvin]

It won't ever go Republican unless the state completely realigns.    The issue is that, while Democrats do lose some voters over time....the Republicans lose just as many if not more.    It consistently votes in the 56-57% Dem range every election as a result (except in the 90's when Perot was on the ballot).

[Breton Racer]

Never, Allegheny County is quickly shifting from blue collar to white collar, if it hasn't already. The population is becoming very diverse.

[bullmoose88]

Here's the problem nowadays, the Republican not only has to mitigate Philadelphia County, but also Delaware and Montgomery Counties.  (Bucks still retains its close to state average status, but that could change).

Montgomery County PA is quite interesting indeed, only county to vote Republican in Bob Casey Sr's 1990 66 of 67 county landslide.

(Hi everyone, remember me?)

[Hammy]

It'll go Republican when the Democratic and Republican Parties swap names. So never.

[TrumpCard]

Never

[Cubby]

Here's the problem nowadays, the Republican not only has to mitigate Philadelphia County, but also Delaware and Montgomery Counties.  (Bucks still retains its close to state average status, but that could change).

Montgomery County PA is quite interesting indeed, only county to vote Republican in Bob Casey Sr's 1990 66 of 67 county landslide.

(Hi everyone, remember me?)

Yes I remember you! Have you seen Keystone Phil or Jake?

I noticed you left Chester County off the list. I was disappointed when it swung back to Romney in 2012. Its also a big suburban county but much more Republican than Montgomery or Bucks.

Can anyone expound on the differences twixt Westmoreland and Butler Counties? I get the sense the latter is more white collar and the former is more blue collar.

[Badger]

To OP, you need a Corbett-style landslide (btw, his opponent in 2010, Dan Onorato, was then the sitting Allegheny County Executive). At presidential level, you'll need at least a Bush 88 size win nationally, and even that probably won't be enough.

Re: the 92 Senate election: I'd forgot about that. Yeakel suffered from the (then) sole newspaper in the County having an extended strike. It really hurt her campaign's ability to get her Philadelphia name out to Pittsburghers.

@ Bullmoose: Welcome back!

Re: Cubby's question, I grew up in Allegheny just south of the Butler County line, my Dad worked there, and we have family in Westmoreland. Butler isn't nearly so blue collar as it is a mix of rural with a huge white collar influx. Even when Western PA was ubiquitously Democratic, Butler was always a staunchly (Atlas) blue county in north of a red patch. Historically it was far less industrialized, and thus far less unionized, than most of the region. It was much more rural and small town than factory town. In recent decades, however, especially since I-279 opened making commuting to the city a relative breeze, tons of white collar types migrated to southern Butler County. IIRC the Cranberry Township on the Allegheny line was for a period the fastest growing municipality in the country. Even folks who didn't earn much there still worked in the non-unionized service industries. Plus, the place has less diversity than a Brady Bunch episode.

Westmoreland is an odd duck. More than any other county it symbolizes Democratic decline in Western PA, and it's happened more there than almost any other county. Westmoreland went from being a Dukakis and Mondale () county, to in 2000 being flipped GOP for the first time since 72, to Obama only cracking 37% in 2012! Yes, Westmoreland is more blue collar, but unionized industrial jobs of course have rapidly declined, and white collar McMansion suburbs have exploded throughout the county. So yes, more white collar relatively speaking, but most people would today think of Westmoreland as white collar suburbs.