Clinton PAC to make decision on AZ in 1 month, looking at IN/GA/MO

[dspNY]

Politico has an article on how Dems in AZ are pressing the Clinton campaign to spend resources in the state.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/arizona-clinton-trump-blue-226536

Usually when this kind of article comes out, the campaign makes an investment (in fact, most of the time the campaign behind this type of article leaks it)

[RJEvans]

If Trump is going to retreat to PA, FL and OH, why not try to expand the map to AZ and GA as a way to ensure Trump plays defense.

[cMac36]

I'd go for Arizona and Georgia only. Indiana won't  flip.

Evan Bayh is running again in Indiana.  McCain will be in tough fight.  Remember this.  Clinton badly wants Dem Senate.  And every seat counts.

[ElectionsGuy]

They should make a move on Arizona and perhaps symbolic investment in Georgia to help move Democrats in general closer to their goal mark over the next few years. Indiana probably isn't going to work even with Bayh.

[Maxwell]

Open up the map!

But only do it in Arizona and Georgia. Wait to see if there are Bayh-tails.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/760631444519608320

Guy Cecil, the head of Priorities USA, said yesterday

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And then he retweeted Politico, noting the close Arizona/Georgia polls recently. We should know by Labor Day if it's happening or not.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/760674034451226625

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/760631444519608320

Guy Cecil, the head of Priorities USA, said yesterday

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And then he retweeted Politico, noting the close Arizona/Georgia polls recently. We should know by Labor Day if it's happening or not.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/760674034451226625

Just curious, but do you know at what dates Obama began pouring resources into North Carolina and Virginia in 2008? I thought a solid game in emerging battlegrounds required a lot more preparation and not a last minute investment. If they began ramping it up in September, that leaves them only 2 months really to get going. Isn't that too late?

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/760631444519608320

Guy Cecil, the head of Priorities USA, said yesterday

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And then he retweeted Politico, noting the close Arizona/Georgia polls recently. We should know by Labor Day if it's happening or not.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/760674034451226625

They're going to wait a week to 10 days to see whether her bounce calcifies/solidifies. If it does, then it is game on

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/760631444519608320

Guy Cecil, the head of Priorities USA, said yesterday

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And then he retweeted Politico, noting the close Arizona/Georgia polls recently. We should know by Labor Day if it's happening or not.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/760674034451226625

Just curious, but do you know at what dates Obama began pouring resources into North Carolina and Virginia in 2008? I thought a solid game in emerging battlegrounds required a lot more preparation and not a last minute investment. If they began ramping it up in September, that leaves them only 2 months really to get going. Isn't that too late?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/16/AR2008071602817.html
They started a ground effort in Virginia late July 2008. I couldn't find anything specific for North Carolina. At that time, they were leading in RCP by 1, led by 4 in the final polls, and won by 6.

Currently, Clinton has not led any Georgia/Indiana polls, and the only Arizona polls she's led in are GOP polls. PPP/GQR didn't find her competitive in Arizona (unless they spent tens of millions to register and mobilize Latinos, money better spent shoring up Florida).

But maybe Trump will keep collapsing and put these states in reach. At the least, Priorities can push Indiana Bayh's way, and maybe beat McCain.

[Virginiá]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/16/AR2008071602817.html
They started a ground effort in Virginia late July 2008. I couldn't find anything specific for North Carolina. At that time, they were leading in RCP by 1, led by 4 in the final polls, and won by 6.

Currently, Clinton has not led any Georgia/Indiana polls, and the only Arizona polls she's led in are GOP polls. PPP/GQR didn't find her competitive in Arizona (unless they spent tens of millions to register and mobilize Latinos, money better spent shoring up Florida).

But maybe Trump will keep collapsing and put these states in reach. At the least, Priorities can push Indiana Bayh's way, and maybe beat McCain.

Ah, thanks!

By the very limited data we have so far, Arizona doesn't seem any further behind for Clinton than North Carolina was for Obama in 2008. Polls showed NC +Rep all the way until mid-late September, where it then flipped to Obama. Clinton might have a shot in Arizona, but they really need to get started sooner than later.

However, given the way this race is going, Clinton weighing GA/AZ/etc is sort of like her picking out the toppings for her dessert. Arizona should definitely take precedence over Georgia if only for the Senate race.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia will flip before Arizona. People really don't understand the fundamentals of Arizona and how optimistic the conditions already are there for Democrats.

Yeah I browsed over the discussion about AZ here, and I'll just boil my thoughts all down to this. We'll take the Democratic voting blocs and break them down by the numbers. The percentages shown below will build upon one another, showing the percentage of the vote statewide that is Democratic.

AZ not only a couple points less non-white than Georgia, but its non-white population is super-majority Latino, not super-majority Black. Latinos are barely 2-to-1 Democratic; Blacks are 9-to-1.

Theoretical non-white, Democratic vote (as a % of the state)
Georgia: 37.0%
Arizona: 30.8%

Then you have to factor in the fact that oh, say, 40% of the Latino population in a given area usually can't even register to vote.

Theoretical non-white, Democratic vote minus non-citizens (as a % of the state)
Georgia (83%): 34.8%
Arizona (69%): 21.0%

The whites in AZ may be more Democratic, but it isn't nearly enough to make up the difference.

Theoretical white, Democratic vote (as a % of the state)
Arizona (40%): 22.4%
Georgia (25%): 13.5%

When you add the two latter sets of numbers together:
Georgia: 48.3% D
Arizona: 43.4% D

Arizona's got a while before it's ready.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/760631444519608320

Guy Cecil, the head of Priorities USA, said yesterday

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And then he retweeted Politico, noting the close Arizona/Georgia polls recently. We should know by Labor Day if it's happening or not.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/760674034451226625

Just curious, but do you know at what dates Obama began pouring resources into North Carolina and Virginia in 2008? I thought a solid game in emerging battlegrounds required a lot more preparation and not a last minute investment. If they began ramping it up in September, that leaves them only 2 months really to get going. Isn't that too late?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/16/AR2008071602817.html
They started a ground effort in Virginia late July 2008. I couldn't find anything specific for North Carolina. At that time, they were leading in RCP by 1, led by 4 in the final polls, and won by 6.

Currently, Clinton has not led any Georgia/Indiana polls, and the only Arizona polls she's led in are GOP polls. PPP/GQR didn't find her competitive in Arizona (unless they spent tens of millions to register and mobilize Latinos, money better spent shoring up Florida).

But maybe Trump will keep collapsing and put these states in reach. At the least, Priorities can push Indiana Bayh's way, and maybe beat McCain.

Such a massive voter registration drive in AZ could create long term yields for the Dems. Those new voters will largely stay on the polls in future elections. Some follow up GOTV in the next few elections could permanently turn AZ at least purple in a short period.

[HillOfANight]

They would invest in Arizona if they're confident in not spending money elsewhere like Virginia and Colorado, which they seem on track to do.

New Politico story this morning

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/colorado-trump-shrinking-electoral-map-226653

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[OneJ]

If the Clinton campaign is ready to put in money in the states of Georgia and/or Arizona, I don't see why they're not worth the shot. I'm confident that Hillary will win states like Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado. Swing states that I suggest Hillary to look at are Florida, Ohio and North Carolina as the "big three." She definitely can't let the first two slip away. NC was close last cycle, so that makes sense.

However, I don't mind them having a little fun. Indiana, however, is a waste despite the fact that Pence is hated up there. Recent polls suggest IN to be a "Likely R" state. At this point, strange places like Utah and Mississippi will be closer than Indiana.

[HillOfANight]

From a Presidential standpoint, it might be futile, but if it helps at all to keep Republicans at home to help Evan Bayh win, all the better.

[NHI]

Good lord, we may be heading for an electoral wipeout for Trump...

[Frodo]

She should also make a play for Mississippi, Texas, and Utah, if things are as bad for Trump as we are being led to believe, if only to make them competitive. 

[Brittain33]

They should make a move on Arizona and perhaps symbolic investment in Georgia to help move Democrats in general closer to their goal mark over the next few years. Indiana probably isn't going to work even with Bayh.

A registration drive in Georgia around the presidential campaign would pay dividends for years.

[syntaxerror]

She should go for Arizona and Missouri, purely because both have Senate races that will be close for Democrats. Kirkpatrick and Kander are strong candidates, and Hillary investing resources there, even if she does not end up carrying, will do a world of good for them (since both incumbents, McCain and Blunt, are unpopular).

Georgia would also be a worthy investment. A registration drive may help improve prospects for a state party that is hungry to become competitive in 18 for Governor and 20 for Senate. Georgie has been hyped up as a future battleground for ages, and could have been, if not for the poor Democratic infrastructure.

[HillOfANight]

Sad they aren't considering Utah for giggles, but I guess they have many, many, more paths to victory.

[Doimper]

She should also make a play for Mississippi, Texas, and Utah, if things are as bad for Trump as we are being led to believe, if only to make them competitive. 

They are making a play for Utah, if you count deploying Bubba there later this month as a "play".

[Xing]

Missouri would also be a worthwhile investment. Similar to Indiana, the goal shouldn't only be flipping the state at the presidential level (which would only happen in a massive wave,) but also giving Kander and Koster a boost, since those races are potentially winnable for Democrats.

[dspNY]

Well then, Harry Reid puts up another bat signal

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/reid-clinton-georgia-arizona-battlegrounds-226684

[Speed of Sound]

Well then, Harry Reid puts up another bat signal

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/reid-clinton-georgia-arizona-battlegrounds-226684

If nothing else, it confirms that money, organization, and internal polling-wise, Clinton's people are riding very high right now. It's a serious sign of confidence.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/760631444519608320

Guy Cecil, the head of Priorities USA, said yesterday

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And then he retweeted Politico, noting the close Arizona/Georgia polls recently. We should know by Labor Day if it's happening or not.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/760674034451226625

Just curious, but do you know at what dates Obama began pouring resources into North Carolina and Virginia in 2008? I thought a solid game in emerging battlegrounds required a lot more preparation and not a last minute investment. If they began ramping it up in September, that leaves them only 2 months really to get going. Isn't that too late?

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/761527329634017280
With the new AJC poll showing her leading, a Dem strategist has noted she's doing better in AZ/GA than NC in 2008 when they decided to pour resources there.