GA-SurveyUSA: Trump +4
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Author Topic: GA-SurveyUSA: Trump +4  (Read 3576 times)
Adam Griffin
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« on: August 01, 2016, 03:17:49 PM »
« edited: August 01, 2016, 03:33:19 PM by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »
Poll

Trump 46
Clinton 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2

Whites: 64% Trump, 23% Clinton (+41)
Blacks: 80% Clinton, 14% Trump (+66)
Latinos: 53% Clinton, 25% Trump (+28)

18-34: Clinton 49%, Trump 25% (+24)
35-49: Trump 48%, Clinton 40% (+8)
50-64: Clinton 47%, Trump 46% (+1)
65+: Trump 60%, Clinton 33% (+27)

18-49: Clinton 43%, Trump 39% (+4)
50+: Trump 51%, Clinton 42% (+9)

Republicans: Trump 88%, Clinton 6%
Democrats: Clinton 96%, Undecided 3%
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2016, 03:18:36 PM »
Oh
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2016, 03:19:19 PM »
I didn't think Georgia would be a concern at all for Trump, but maybe he is in a bit of trouble there.
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2016, 03:20:27 PM »
No wonder Clinton is mulling a move here. We have repeated evidence now that GA is close, in fact closer than PA appears
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swf541
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« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2016, 03:20:39 PM »
No Johnson included numbers?  Thats disappointing.  Still +4 trump head 2 head in Georgia is fairly bad.
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2016, 03:21:56 PM »
Quote from: swf541 on August 01, 2016, 03:20:39 PM
No Johnson included numbers?  Thats disappointing.  Still +4 trump head 2 head in Georgia is fairly bad.

This also indicates a Clinton lead in NC since those GA and NC have about the same demographic mix except for about 8-10% more non-urban whites in GA
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2016, 03:23:13 PM »
Fool's gold.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2016, 03:23:35 PM »
So Hillary has a have of flipping AZ,GA and NC
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2016, 03:23:51 PM »
Quote from: swf541 on August 01, 2016, 03:20:39 PM
No Johnson included numbers?  Thats disappointing.  Still +4 trump head 2 head in Georgia is fairly bad.

Johnson 5
Stein 2
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Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2016, 03:23:57 PM »
I still think that the priority needs to be OH, FL, and PA--but numbers such as these mean that the Democrats shoule start to put some resources here.  This is where the ground game and the fundraiser advantage begins to work seriously in Hillary's favor.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2016, 03:24:01 PM »
Looks about right if Clinton is up 7 nationally. There might be room to improve with suburban women for Hillary.

Quote from: swf541 on August 01, 2016, 03:20:39 PM
No Johnson included numbers?  Thats disappointing.  Still +4 trump head 2 head in Georgia is fairly bad.

Click the link, he's at 5%.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2016, 03:25:13 PM »
This feels about right (insert usual disclaimer about unscientific anecdotal evidence).  Trump's support seems to be uneven in the extremely Republican area where I live.  His supporters are all in for him, but quite a few other Republicans are on the fence or have already decided to vote for Johnson or even Clinton. 

If the election were held today, I'd expect Trump to win the state by 2-4 points, but if he implodes it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Clinton won.
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2016, 03:25:31 PM »

I'd still take a shot at flipping it to scare the Repubs
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2016, 03:30:27 PM »
Just added some crosstabs to OP:

Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griffin on August 01, 2016, 03:17:49 PM
Whites: 64% Trump, 23% Clinton
Blacks: 80% Clinton, 14% Trump
Latinos: 53% Clinton, 25% Trump

18-34: Clinton 49%, Trump 25%
35-49: Trump 48%, Clinton 40%
50-64: Clinton 47%, Trump 46%
65+: Trump 60%, Clinton 33%

18-49: Clinton 43%, Trump 39%
50+: Trump 51%, Clinton 42%

Republicans: Trump 88%, Clinton 6%
Democrats: Clinton 96%, Undecided 3%
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Ebsy
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« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2016, 03:31:59 PM »
Georgia is definitely in reach.
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2016, 03:32:36 PM »
This seems about right. I expect Trump to win by about 4 points in November. Something like 51-47.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2016, 03:34:03 PM »
« Edited: August 01, 2016, 03:37:34 PM by Interlocutor »
- 18% of 18-34 year olds are voting third party
- 34% of Johnson voters are voting against Trump or Hillary
- 50% of Stein voters are voting solely against Trump
- 14% of blacks are for Trump?

With 5-6% of undecided independents and suburban voters split 44-44, it wouldn't be unwise to spend some resources here and lay some basic groundwork. Certainly worth a shot, especially since Georgia could turn blue before Arizona.

I mean, if Pennsylvania can be considered a swing state
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dspNY
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« Reply #17 on: August 01, 2016, 03:36:25 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griffin on August 01, 2016, 03:30:27 PM
Just added some crosstabs to OP:

Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griffin on August 01, 2016, 03:17:49 PM
Whites: 64% Trump, 23% Clinton
Blacks: 80% Clinton, 14% Trump
Latinos: 53% Clinton, 25% Trump

18-34: Clinton 49%, Trump 25%
35-49: Trump 48%, Clinton 40%
50-64: Clinton 47%, Trump 46%
65+: Trump 60%, Clinton 33%

18-49: Clinton 43%, Trump 39%
50+: Trump 51%, Clinton 42%

Republicans: Trump 88%, Clinton 6%
Democrats: Clinton 96%, Undecided 3%

All kinds of room for Clinton to gain. 80% black vote will probably be 90% and 53% Hispanic vote will be at least 70%
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2016, 03:36:36 PM »
« Edited: August 01, 2016, 03:39:22 PM by ElectionsGuy »
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dspNY
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« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2016, 03:37:47 PM »

Lucy's holding the football in PA for the Dems
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xingkerui
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« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2016, 03:47:16 PM »

In all likelihood, yeah, that's probably what will happen, and it might be the case in Arizona as well. On the other hand, the same is true with the parties reversed in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
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swf541
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« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2016, 03:51:18 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griffin on August 01, 2016, 03:23:51 PM
Quote from: swf541 on August 01, 2016, 03:20:39 PM
No Johnson included numbers?  Thats disappointing.  Still +4 trump head 2 head in Georgia is fairly bad.

Johnson 5
Stein 2

Thank you
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DrScholl
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« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2016, 04:08:36 PM »
Georgia will be extremely close this year.
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Horus
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« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2016, 06:14:39 PM »
I don't see Trump getting 14% of the black vote, but I think +4 is about right.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2016, 06:23:05 PM »
Quote from: Horus on August 01, 2016, 06:14:39 PM
I don't see Trump getting 14% of the black vote, but I think +4 is about right.
Georgia and NC seem to me like they are going to be Trump's best states for Black Americans.
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