1988: Rumsfeld v. Dukakis

[Californiadreaming]

What if Reagan picked Donald Rumsfeld rather Bush Sr. as his VP in 1980, wins, survives Hickley's assassination attempt in 1981, decisively wins re-election against Walter Mondale in 1984, and implements all of the policies that he implemented in real life, how well would VP Donald Rumsfeld have fared against Michael Dukakis in the 1988 U.S. Presidential election?

[Kingpoleon]

298: Vice President Donald Rumsfeld/Senator Lowell Weicker - 53.4%
240: Governor Michael Dukakis/Senator Jay Rockefeller - 42.7%
Others - 3.9%

[Californiadreaming]

298: Vice President Donald Rumsfeld/Senator Lowell Weicker - 53.4%
240: Governor Michael Dukakis/Senator Jay Rockefeller - 42.7%
Others - 3.9%

Why so close in terms of the electoral vote, though?

Also, isn't Lowell Weicker pro-choice? Or does he have a pro-life conversion before 1988 in this scenario?

[Kingpoleon]

Rumsfeld either wouldn't hire Atwater or would be even more overtly negative. Either scenario makes him do worse. Besides that, he doesn't have the presence and gravitas of Bush.

I'd say California is a coin toss, while Illinois is the only other state there I'm unsure about.

[Californiadreaming]

Rumsfeld either wouldn't hire Atwater or would be even more overtly negative. Either scenario makes him do worse. Besides that, he doesn't have the presence and gravitas of Bush.

A former Defense Secretary doesn't have gravitas?

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Why exactly is the popular vote so pro-Rumsfeld, though? I mean, Rumsfeld's PV victory margin in this scenario is much greater than Bush Sr.'s PV victory margin was in real life.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think he would have done slightly better than Bush.

✓ Vice President Donald Rumsfeld (R-IL)/Representative Jack Kemp (R-PA): 438 EVs.; 53.5%
Governor Michael Dukakis (D-MA)/Senator Llyod Bentsen (D-TX): 100 EVs.; 45.4%