In your scenario it sounds like Allen's biggest argument is that he is ready to be president but I don't think Allen could say that he made mistakes in his first term and then argue that Obama doesn't have enough experience to be ready on day one. Additionally, the current situation and Obama's more liberal policies would still allow for a 2008 hope and change like campaign which would be a huge advantage over someone as boring as Allen.
1. The U.S. economy has already began recovering.
2. Allen's newfound centrism helps him with moderate voters.
3. The current Iran-Iraq crisis helps Allen because he has more foreign policy experience than President Obama.
4. By adopting some of the Democrats' agenda, Allen weakens Obama's claim that electing Democrats is necessary in order to adopt and implement liberal economic policies.
Ok, you make a good argument. After reading your reply and rereading your original post I will concede that the election would be much closer than I originally had it (probably flip VA, NC, FL, and IN), but I still think that Obama would win. Foreign policy would help Allen. The economy is recovering so it wouldn't hurt Allen, but it isn't growing at a rate that would really help him either. However, I think President Allen would still have a couple of big problems in his reelection campaign.
1. Allen's centrism could end up hurting him in the same way Romney was hurt by being painted as a flip-flopper for his pivot towards the center.
2. Allen's tax cuts on the rich appears to be very unpopular, as shown by the midterm results, and would be harmful to his reelection chances especially in a country still reacting to the height of Occupy Wall Street.
3. Allen is very socially conservative and his stances could hurt him among young, independent, and non-religious voters.
