UT - Hinckley Institute/Salt Lake Tribune: Clinton +1 [Poll actually from June]
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  UT - Hinckley Institute/Salt Lake Tribune: Clinton +1 [Poll actually from June]
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Author Topic: UT - Hinckley Institute/Salt Lake Tribune: Clinton +1 [Poll actually from June]  (Read 4939 times)
heatcharger
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« Reply #25 on: August 02, 2016, 12:05:19 AM »

It's telling that a serial philanderer may be the one to push Utah into the Democratic column.

And I say this as a fan of Bill Clinton.

I really question this decision by the Clinton camp. Of all the moral surrogates to send to Utah, Bill Clinton is probably not very high on the list. The democratic socialist would be a better fit.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #26 on: August 02, 2016, 12:31:20 AM »

It's telling that a serial philanderer may be the one to push Utah into the Democratic column.

And I say this as a fan of Bill Clinton.

I really question this decision by the Clinton camp. Of all the moral surrogates to send to Utah, Bill Clinton is probably not very high on the list. The democratic socialist would be a better fit.

This was my exact thought on this.... granted Bill Clinton's appearance could help turn out the Democratic Base in heavier numbers where, as in many other heavily Republican States, turnout tends to be a bit lower than it should be because why bother voting unless there is a semi-competitive election.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #27 on: August 02, 2016, 12:32:26 AM »

If they use the same type of family narrative as he brought to the convention floor, adding a note on how they've kept their marriage vows through worst of times, he could actually be a hit.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #28 on: August 02, 2016, 12:34:20 AM »

Found this on another site:



My conclusion: If Trump botches the debates or makes another dumb comment the week before the election, he loses Utah.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #29 on: August 02, 2016, 12:39:57 AM »

If they use the same type of family narrative as he brought to the convention floor, adding a note on how they've kept their marriage vows through worst of times, he could actually be a hit.

Good point...

The key to a Democrat winning Utah this election cycle is in expanding beyond the traditional Democratic coalition of non-Mormons in the SLC area and carving away enough Mormon voters to eke out a narrow plurality.

Would Harry Reid help out here as well as part of a joint campaign event, or is he deeply disliked among Mormon Republicans and Indies?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #30 on: August 02, 2016, 12:40:30 AM »

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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #31 on: August 02, 2016, 01:23:31 AM »

It's telling that a serial philanderer may be the one to push Utah into the Democratic column.

And I say this as a fan of Bill Clinton.

I really question this decision by the Clinton camp. Of all the moral surrogates to send to Utah, Bill Clinton is probably not very high on the list. The democratic socialist would be a better fit.
The only way the Democrats win Utah is if their base turns out en masse. Be real, the Mormons aren't going to vote for Clinton, no matter how much they hate Trump. All that matters is getting out your base and keeping the Mormons from marking the presidential slot.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #32 on: August 02, 2016, 01:27:43 AM »


You ever go to that crumpet shop in Pike Place?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #33 on: August 02, 2016, 01:58:59 AM »


I did once a while ago, and it was pretty good, but there's another one closer to my house if I want to get my crumpet fix.
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Xing
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« Reply #34 on: August 02, 2016, 02:12:06 AM »


I didn't even know there was a crumpet shop in Pike Place. It's been way too long since I went there.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #35 on: August 02, 2016, 02:19:15 AM »


I didn't even know there was a crumpet shop in Pike Place. It's been way too long since I went there.

It's under Radiator Whiskey, actually one of my favorite spots on the occasional morning when I find myself downtown.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #36 on: August 02, 2016, 02:57:12 AM »

Dear mormen and morwomen,

I, Lief, known for my outrageous but fully justified anti-morman views, am willing to bury the hatchet and accept your sick cult with open arms, if you do the right thing this November and deliver the great state of Utah to your BEAUTIFUL NOMINEE, Hillary Clinton. Thank you.

Sincerely,
Lief
There's way too many people who think like that in Utah already, which is partially why Utah is so Republican. But I appreciate the thought. We're trying our best to deliver our votes to a non-Trump candidate. It might help if Romney endorses Johnson or Hillary herself.

If they use the same type of family narrative as he brought to the convention floor, adding a note on how they've kept their marriage vows through worst of times, he could actually be a hit.

Good point...

The key to a Democrat winning Utah this election cycle is in expanding beyond the traditional Democratic coalition of non-Mormons in the SLC area and carving away enough Mormon voters to eke out a narrow plurality.

Would Harry Reid help out here as well as part of a joint campaign event, or is he deeply disliked among Mormon Republicans and Indies?
Harry Reid is absolutely hated here except among the few Mormon Democrats, so he'd be a terrible surrogate.

But yes, the Democrats need to expand into the heavily Mormon suburbs, they might be able to win there, but the rural areas are lost forever.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #37 on: August 02, 2016, 03:10:07 AM »

I just can't imagine that the massive number of undecideds are going to break for a Democrat. She's going to need Johnson to grab a YUGE percentage of the vote to have a shot.

Is the Constitution Party candidate on the ballot here?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #38 on: August 02, 2016, 04:02:40 AM »

Donald Trump is the worst cultural match of any Republican for Utah by any Republican nominee for President since at least the New Deal Era. Sure, Goldwater lost Utah, but mostly because of his scary stances on nuclear warfare. Being to the Left of George McGovern in foreign policy (Mormons are patriots without being Patriots) will hurt the Republican ticket in November at the very top even if I expect the Republicans to sweep statewide offices. Goldwater did not have investments in casinos, offenses to the sensibilities of devout Mormons not only for gambling itself (Utah has no legal gambling) but also for bawdy shows and rampant boozing and smoking.

(Sure, I am a liberal, but if I had to choose between living in Nevada or Utah, I would pick Utah, as I have "Mormon lungs" and a "Mormon liver" even if I am not a Mormon. I do not smoke and I drink rarely and never much at any time).   

Democrats have successfully co-opted  Mormon (Latter-Day Saints or LDS) respect for intact families and formal education that Eisenhower co-opted in the early 1950s, transforming Utah from a usually-Democratic state to a rock-solid Republican state. Probably because devout Mormons avoid tobacco and alcohol, Utah residents can avoid spending as much money on public health as  other Americans and can keep taxes low and public services at modest cost. Mormons take care of themselves, and non-Mormons assume that habit if they are to find life tolerable in Utah.

Donald Trump can lose this state, especially if the LDS hierarchy turns on him... which has not happened but would be no great surprise if it did. Count on Mitt Romney seconding the endorsement of the non=Republican nominee for which the LDS hierarchy calls upon Mormons to vote.  Mormons believe in the ideal of intact families  even if those families are not Mormons (Mormon missionaries will show up at the front door some time or another); the LDS made a reasonable response to same-sex couples after the Supreme Court ruled against state bans on same-sex marriage. Again, Mormons believe in intact marriages even if such marriages are same-sex.

The incumbent Republican nominee for the US Senate, not at all a liberal,  can win re-election 70-30 while Donald Trump loses, whether to Hillary Clinton or to Gary Johnson. Either way, Donald Trump loses Utah's six electoral votes, six electoral votes that he can hardly afford to lose. Democrats have not had to offend Mormon sensibilities to lose all but one Presidential election since 1948 -- but Republicans have always had a nominee compatible with Mormon values. That does not hold.         
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #39 on: August 02, 2016, 06:37:05 AM »

It's good to see that the Mormons are true to their principles as opposed to other "Christians" who are more loyal to the R after a candidate's name vs. Jesus.
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windjammer
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« Reply #40 on: August 02, 2016, 07:15:18 AM »

She won't win this state but I definitely believe she could win Mia Love's congressional district, dooming her Cheesy
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JRP1994
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« Reply #41 on: August 02, 2016, 08:48:18 AM »

https://twitter.com/surveyusa/status/760459935704571904

SurveyUSA: "We haven't polled Utah since June -- can't tell if that's a mistaken reference to our 35/35 tie from them or a misattribution."
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JRP1994
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« Reply #42 on: August 02, 2016, 09:07:20 AM »

Washington Post: this poll doesn't exist

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/02/that-poll-showing-clinton-leading-in-utah-it-doesnt-exist/

"The Salt Lake Tribune doesn't have a story about a new poll at its website. The Hinckley Institute at the University of Utah doesn't have any mention of it either. In an email to The Post, the Tribune's Dan Harrie confirmed that there in fact wasn't a new survey from the paper. He speculated that KUTV was simply picking up a convention post-mortem the paper ran over the weekend -- though there's no reference to a 36-35 result."
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #43 on: August 02, 2016, 09:39:48 AM »

Lol, this season
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #44 on: August 02, 2016, 09:41:43 AM »

My opinion of Trump rises slightly everytime I see a Utah poll.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #45 on: August 02, 2016, 09:45:56 AM »

What a surprise; more poor journalism.  This poll was just too good to be true.

Well SurveyUSA had the race tied back in June, so hopefully they'll do another poll soon.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #46 on: August 02, 2016, 12:35:40 PM »

Donald Trump is the worst cultural match of any Republican for Utah by any Republican nominee for President since at least the New Deal Era. Sure, Goldwater lost Utah, but mostly because of his scary stances on nuclear warfare. Being to the Left of George McGovern in foreign policy (Mormons are patriots without being Patriots) will hurt the Republican ticket in November at the very top even if I expect the Republicans to sweep statewide offices. Goldwater did not have investments in casinos, offenses to the sensibilities of devout Mormons not only for gambling itself (Utah has no legal gambling) but also for bawdy shows and rampant boozing and smoking.

(Sure, I am a liberal, but if I had to choose between living in Nevada or Utah, I would pick Utah, as I have "Mormon lungs" and a "Mormon liver" even if I am not a Mormon. I do not smoke and I drink rarely and never much at any time).   

Democrats have successfully co-opted  Mormon (Latter-Day Saints or LDS) respect for intact families and formal education that Eisenhower co-opted in the early 1950s, transforming Utah from a usually-Democratic state to a rock-solid Republican state. Probably because devout Mormons avoid tobacco and alcohol, Utah residents can avoid spending as much money on public health as  other Americans and can keep taxes low and public services at modest cost. Mormons take care of themselves, and non-Mormons assume that habit if they are to find life tolerable in Utah.

Donald Trump can lose this state, especially if the LDS hierarchy turns on him... which has not happened but would be no great surprise if it did. Count on Mitt Romney seconding the endorsement of the non=Republican nominee for which the LDS hierarchy calls upon Mormons to vote.  Mormons believe in the ideal of intact families  even if those families are not Mormons (Mormon missionaries will show up at the front door some time or another); the LDS made a reasonable response to same-sex couples after the Supreme Court ruled against state bans on same-sex marriage. Again, Mormons believe in intact marriages even if such marriages are same-sex.

The incumbent Republican nominee for the US Senate, not at all a liberal,  can win re-election 70-30 while Donald Trump loses, whether to Hillary Clinton or to Gary Johnson. Either way, Donald Trump loses Utah's six electoral votes, six electoral votes that he can hardly afford to lose. Democrats have not had to offend Mormon sensibilities to lose all but one Presidential election since 1948 -- but Republicans have always had a nominee compatible with Mormon values. That does not hold.         
Exactly that, except that the LDS Church will not endorse any candidate for any office. They haven't done that for decades. Other than that, you have it right/

My opinion of Trump rises slightly everytime I see a Utah poll.

Why?
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #47 on: August 02, 2016, 12:44:52 PM »

Dear mormen and morwomen,

I, Lief, known for my outrageous but fully justified anti-morman views, am willing to bury the hatchet and accept your sick cult with open arms, if you do the right thing this November and deliver the great state of Utah to your BEAUTIFUL NOMINEE, Hillary Clinton. Thank you.

Sincerely,
Lief

I'm kinda with Trey and Matt.  Kooky beliefs, but incredibly nice people.  Good singers, too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsINANZ6Riw
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afleitch
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« Reply #48 on: August 02, 2016, 12:51:13 PM »


I'm kinda with Trey and Matt.  Kooky beliefs, but incredibly nice people.  Good singers, too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsINANZ6Riw

I dated a former Mormon briefly (true dis) Had two children, divorced from his wife. From this and from what we talked about, some Mormons can be needlessly callous at times. Nice isn't always the same as kind or sincere.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #49 on: August 02, 2016, 12:52:51 PM »

Come on Donnie, insult Mormons please.
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