UT - Hinckley Institute/Salt Lake Tribune: Clinton +1 [Poll actually from June]

[The Other Castro]

Not the first time someone in Utah pretended to read and publish something that wasn't actually real.

 

[Tender Branson]

Even though this is a 2-month old poll, I would not be surprised if the next polls out show a close race there. Especially if Romney endorses Johnson/Weld. And Trump is doing everything to destroy himself right now.

[Phony Moderate]

My opinion of Trump rises slightly everytime I see a Utah poll.

Why?

Let's just say that I don't enjoy being low-energy harassed in the town centre at 2 o'clock in the afternoon on New Year's Eve.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Not the first time someone in Utah pretended to read and publish something that wasn't actually real.

 

Nice one!

[Adam Griffin]

Countdown until Trump starts attacking the Mormon religion.....

"How stupid are the Mormen of Utah?"

[ElectionsGuy]

From June... A lot of people probably came home to him after the convention, and more will by election day.

[Zioneer]

I'm kinda with Trey and Matt.  Kooky beliefs, but incredibly nice people.  Good singers, too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsINANZ6Riw

I dated a former Mormon briefly (true dis) Had two children, divorced from his wife. From this and from what we talked about, some Mormons can be needlessly callous at times. Nice isn't always the same as kind or sincere.

It's true, there are awful Mormons just the same as anyone else. We tend to have a polite demeanor, but that doesn't change the fact that we're human, and are subject to the same positives and negatives as anyone else.

Not the first time someone in Utah pretended to read and publish something that wasn't actually real.

 

There's no need to be needlessly rude like that.

My opinion of Trump rises slightly everytime I see a Utah poll.

Why?

Let's just say that I don't enjoy being low-energy harassed in the town centre at 2 o'clock in the afternoon on New Year's Eve.

Fair enough. Though we are moving away from the "door-to-door" and public area conversations model, we're moving towards a model of referrals, so blame your friends or friends of friends for that.

As for low-energy... you should have been around at the time of the original Mormon missionaries then. Very fiery.

[NOVA Green]

Good point...

The key to a Democrat winning Utah this election cycle is in expanding beyond the traditional Democratic coalition of non-Mormons in the SLC area and carving away enough Mormon voters to eke out a narrow plurality.

Would Harry Reid help out here as well as part of a joint campaign event, or is he deeply disliked among Mormon Republicans and Indies?
[/quote] Harry Reid is absolutely hated here except among the few Mormon Democrats, so he'd be a terrible surrogate.

But yes, the Democrats need to expand into the heavily Mormon suburbs, they might be able to win there, but the rural areas are lost forever.
[/quote]

So, I understand regarding the rural areas, but what would a successful Democratic statewide win look like in Utah?

I am assuming the key is SLC and suburban parts of Salt Lake County, but ultimately running the highway North of SLC from Ogden and beyond is so heavily Republican that it would take a huge margin in Salt Lake County to erase Republican edge "downstate".

Any particular bellweather precincts and suburbs to look at as a potential indicator of significant shift in the Mormon suburbs of SLC that could indicate the race is tightening?

Everything is fluid, and Trump is extremely unpopular even among the Republican base of Utah, but what would a winning Democratic coalition look like (Recognizing that there will be defections to the Libertarians, and even possibly some that don't vote)?

I suspected that Harry Reid might not be popular among Republican voters in Utah (Including Mormon and Independent Republican-leaning voters), but he is one of the only nationally visible Mormon Democrats in recent years...  So Bernie might be a better surrogate???

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/03/28/harry-reid-and-the-increasingly-rare-mormon-democrat/

[ElectionsGuy]

^^^ Weber County (Ogden) is the bellwether of Utah, Democrats have to win that if they want to win the state, they can lose most of everything else by decently large margins as long as they run it up in SLC as well.

[NOVA Green]

^^^ Weber County (Ogden) is the bellwether of Utah, Democrats have to win that if they want to win the state, they can lose most of everything else by decently large margins as long as they run it up in SLC as well.

So Obama narrowly won Salt Lake County in 2008 (48.2-48.1 Obama) and lost Weber in '08 (62-35 McCain) when Utah went (62-34 McCain).

What kinds of margins would it take in Salt Lake County to actually flip? Weber County sounds like ground zero if you look at the "Mormon Vote" in a state that is 62% LDS....

So of the two-party vote, would Hill-Dawg need to hit 58-60% in Salt Lake County and narrowly win Weber (Ogden) to make the math work?

[Zioneer]

^^^ Weber County (Ogden) is the bellwether of Utah, Democrats have to win that if they want to win the state, they can lose most of everything else by decently large margins as long as they run it up in SLC as well.

So Obama narrowly won Salt Lake County in 2008 (48.2-48.1 Obama) and lost Weber in '08 (62-35 McCain) when Utah went (62-34 McCain).

What kinds of margins would it take in Salt Lake County to actually flip? Weber County sounds like ground zero if you look at the "Mormon Vote" in a state that is 62% LDS....

So of the two-party vote, would Hill-Dawg need to hit 58-60% in Salt Lake County and narrowly win Weber (Ogden) to make the math work?

That's correct, and winning Summit County and San Juan County would also be helpful, as they're relatively Democratic (Summit has Park City liberals and San Juan is where the Utah portion of the Navajo Nation is).

Possibly Grand County as well, I think Obama won that in 2008.

[Mr. Smith]

Good point...

The key to a Democrat winning Utah this election cycle is in expanding beyond the traditional Democratic coalition of non-Mormons in the SLC area and carving away enough Mormon voters to eke out a narrow plurality.

Would Harry Reid help out here as well as part of a joint campaign event, or is he deeply disliked among Mormon Republicans and Indies?

Harry Reid is absolutely hated here except among the few Mormon Democrats, so he'd be a terrible surrogate.

But yes, the Democrats need to expand into the heavily Mormon suburbs, they might be able to win there, but the rural areas are lost forever.
[/quote]

So, I understand regarding the rural areas, but what would a successful Democratic statewide win look like in Utah?

I am assuming the key is SLC and suburban parts of Salt Lake County, but ultimately running the highway North of SLC from Ogden and beyond is so heavily Republican that it would take a huge margin in Salt Lake County to erase Republican edge "downstate".

Any particular bellweather precincts and suburbs to look at as a potential indicator of significant shift in the Mormon suburbs of SLC that could indicate the race is tightening?

Everything is fluid, and Trump is extremely unpopular even among the Republican base of Utah, but what would a winning Democratic coalition look like (Recognizing that there will be defections to the Libertarians, and even possibly some that don't vote)?

I suspected that Harry Reid might not be popular among Republican voters in Utah (Including Mormon and Independent Republican-leaning voters), but he is one of the only nationally visible Mormon Democrats in recent years...  So Bernie might be a better surrogate???

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/03/28/harry-reid-and-the-increasingly-rare-mormon-democrat/
[/quote]

Tom Udall might be a possible surrogate in place of Reid, if a bit of a longshot. But Udalls are a fairly respected cultural family line [admittedly a good chunk of them are not like me or Mo or Stu or Tom, and more like Mike Lee or Gordon Smith] whereas Reid was a convert.

^^^ Weber County (Ogden) is the bellwether of Utah, Democrats have to win that if they want to win the state, they can lose most of everything else by decently large margins as long as they run it up in SLC as well.

So Obama narrowly won Salt Lake County in 2008 (48.2-48.1 Obama) and lost Weber in '08 (62-35 McCain) when Utah went (62-34 McCain).

What kinds of margins would it take in Salt Lake County to actually flip? Weber County sounds like ground zero if you look at the "Mormon Vote" in a state that is 62% LDS....

So of the two-party vote, would Hill-Dawg need to hit 58-60% in Salt Lake County and narrowly win Weber (Ogden) to make the math work?

That's correct, and winning Summit County and San Juan County would also be helpful, as they're relatively Democratic (Summit has Park City liberals and San Juan is where the Utah portion of the Navajo Nation is).

Possibly Grand County as well, I think Obama won that in 2008.

Wouldn't driving down margins in Utah County also help? It'd be an even greater longshot, but a forceful effort around BYU and Provo to combat Orem and the rural parts of the county perhaps?

[NOVA Green]

Good point...

The key to a Democrat winning Utah this election cycle is in expanding beyond the traditional Democratic coalition of non-Mormons in the SLC area and carving away enough Mormon voters to eke out a narrow plurality.

Would Harry Reid help out here as well as part of a joint campaign event, or is he deeply disliked among Mormon Republicans and Indies?

Harry Reid is absolutely hated here except among the few Mormon Democrats, so he'd be a terrible surrogate.

But yes, the Democrats need to expand into the heavily Mormon suburbs, they might be able to win there, but the rural areas are lost forever.

So, I understand regarding the rural areas, but what would a successful Democratic statewide win look like in Utah?

I am assuming the key is SLC and suburban parts of Salt Lake County, but ultimately running the highway North of SLC from Ogden and beyond is so heavily Republican that it would take a huge margin in Salt Lake County to erase Republican edge "downstate".

Any particular bellweather precincts and suburbs to look at as a potential indicator of significant shift in the Mormon suburbs of SLC that could indicate the race is tightening?

Everything is fluid, and Trump is extremely unpopular even among the Republican base of Utah, but what would a winning Democratic coalition look like (Recognizing that there will be defections to the Libertarians, and even possibly some that don't vote)?

I suspected that Harry Reid might not be popular among Republican voters in Utah (Including Mormon and Independent Republican-leaning voters), but he is one of the only nationally visible Mormon Democrats in recent years...  So Bernie might be a better surrogate???

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/03/28/harry-reid-and-the-increasingly-rare-mormon-democrat/
[/quote]

Tom Udall might be a possible surrogate in place of Reid, if a bit of a longshot. But Udalls are a fairly respected cultural family line [admittedly a good chunk of them are not like me or Mo or Stu or Tom, and more like Mike Lee or Gordon Smith] whereas Reid was a convert.

^^^ Weber County (Ogden) is the bellwether of Utah, Democrats have to win that if they want to win the state, they can lose most of everything else by decently large margins as long as they run it up in SLC as well.

So Obama narrowly won Salt Lake County in 2008 (48.2-48.1 Obama) and lost Weber in '08 (62-35 McCain) when Utah went (62-34 McCain).

What kinds of margins would it take in Salt Lake County to actually flip? Weber County sounds like ground zero if you look at the "Mormon Vote" in a state that is 62% LDS....

So of the two-party vote, would Hill-Dawg need to hit 58-60% in Salt Lake County and narrowly win Weber (Ogden) to make the math work?

That's correct, and winning Summit County and San Juan County would also be helpful, as they're relatively Democratic (Summit has Park City liberals and San Juan is where the Utah portion of the Navajo Nation is).

Possibly Grand County as well, I think Obama won that in 2008.

Wouldn't driving down margins in Utah County also help? It'd be an even greater longshot, but a forceful effort around BYU and Provo to combat Orem and the rural parts of the county perhaps?

[/quote]


Hmmm... hadn't thought about the Udalls, but they likely are much more respected in Utah than Reid over the past few generations. I remember Gordon Smith well, with several decades living in Oregon. Not sure where he is at not politically, or even if he would be interested in campaigning against Trump.

Still curious what a narrow Dem victory in Utah might look like, if anyone with better local knowledge is interested in creating a realistic map based upon competitive statewide elections of recent years.

[jamestroll]

Hmmm... hadn't thought about the Udalls, but they likely are much more respected in Utah than Reid over the past few generations. I remember Gordon Smith well, with several decades living in Oregon. Not sure where he is at not politically, or even if he would be interested in campaigning against Trump.

Still curious what a narrow Dem victory in Utah might look like, if anyone with better local knowledge is interested in creating a realistic map based upon competitive statewide elections of recent years.

1996 Attorney General was the last time a Democrat won statewide. Jan Graham. Ironically, she was the only female to ever be elected to statewide office in Utah.  Governor Olene Walker was simply appointed and lost her the nomination to John Huntsman in 2004.

I would suspect a statewide victory map for Democrats would look similar to the 1996 Attorney General map. The only thing is, some things have changed. I do not think Carbon County would vote 70% for a Democrat at this time, and I doubt a statewide Democrat would win Davis County. The only way to win statewide would be to win Salt Lake County by a substantial margin, while Keeping Utah and Davis Counties well under 70% for the Republican Party. Summit County would be an obvious victory for Democrats, but does not have that many votes. Wasatch County is quite loyal to the Republican Party, but from living in the Wasatch Back for some time, I must say the locals are not that conservative; on a relative scale.

As others have said, Weber County is the bellwether. Ogden does have a significant Latino population, and actually elected a legislative Democrat or two back in 2008.

Hillary Clinton will likely not win Utah. She can only do so, if Romney or a major Republican endorses her (likely will not happen), or if Mormons flock to Johnson in droves. Sanders, could have won Utah. His personality and demeanor matches the state very well. Plus he appeals to young people, and Utah has the lowest median age in the nation at 30.

[jamestroll]

Dear mormen and morwomen,

I, Lief, known for my outrageous but fully justified anti-morman views, am willing to bury the hatchet and accept your sick cult with open arms, if you do the right thing this November and deliver the great state of Utah to your BEAUTIFUL NOMINEE, Hillary Clinton. Thank you.

Sincerely,
Lief

Clinton is not going to win the LDS vote. The goal is to get some LDS Crossovers to the Democrats and have Johnson split the LDS GOP vote. That could provide a path for a Clinton victory. But it is unlikely.

In times of political chaos, I believe Sanders would  have won the state of Utah. His personality is very agreeable with Mormons, he is not Clinton, and there would have been a GOP Congress anyway.

[pbrower2a]

Hillary Clinton cannot win Utah; Donald Trump can lose it. But oh, can Donald Trump lose Utah!

Mormons are conservative, but they are not crazy. They are patriots without being Patriots. Just don't offend their sensibilities.

[cMac36]

Hillary Clinton cannot win Utah; Donald Trump can lose it. But oh, can Donald Trump lose Utah!

I understand you but don't mistake that for thinking you are clever.

Clinton ceiling in Utah is high 30s.

Something like

Clinton 38
Trump 36
Johnson 16
Castle 7
Other 2

Is possible.  Castle is Constituion Party nominee.  James Bo Gritz got like 5% in Utah in 1992.  Even with Perot finishing second?