MO-GOV 2016: Would Claire McCaskill have won if she ran for governor?

[Suburbia]

Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill decided in January 2015 not to run for Missouri governor, in which she was widely expected after the GOP took control of the Senate in 2014. If she had ran in 2016, would she have won?

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/claire-mccaskill-will-not-run-for-governor-missouri-114179

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

It's a little hard to tell considering the election won't happen for another 3 months.

[jamestroll]

Perhaps. But it is an impossible hypothetical.

I must say, Claire has had tremendous luck in her elections as a rule. She has only lost one election, the Governorship in 2004. That was pretty much the year when it was solidified that Missouri is a Republican state.

But in 2002, she ran for auditor and defeated a convicted felon who was Al Hanson. He only won the GOP nomination for auditor, likely because his name was listed first.

2006: McCaskill wins narrowly in a Democratic wave year.

2012: Perhaps you all of heard of this incident, but some guy named Todd Akin made a controversial comment. The polls were still close afterwards, but she was outperformed polls.

Basically, she has won with luck on her back. I do think a McCaskill vs Koster primary would have been quite bruising to either candidate.

[Miles]

It's a little hard to tell considering the election won't happen for another 3 months.

[JMT]

Well, I don't think Koster would've run if McCaskill decided to, so she likely would've been the Democratic nominee. It's a hard hypothetical to predict if she would win the general though. However, I do think she would've had an easier time winning the Governor's race than she will when facing reelection in two years. 

[HAnnA MArin County]

After she upstaged Nixon following the Ferguson fiasco, I started to think that she would run for Governor as well, but wasn't that surprised when she didn't. She probably knew that Koster was going to run and didn't want a bruising primary, so she gracefully bowed out. I could see her running for Governor in 2020 should she lose in 2018 and should Koster lose in November 2016.

[Maxwell]

nope

[Xing]

No, but I doubt she would've done as badly as Clinton did in the state.