If Trump is dropped...

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Why in hell would he willingly drop out?

1. He just doesn't have it in him and I think he knows it (hence all the smoke signals for help, in the form of atrocious behavior)
2. Because he can extract a pound of flesh from the GOP and its donors (Koch brothers, how would you like to fund a major development in NYC? )
3. Because he is genuinely afraid that if he continues to run (and fails), he would be aggressively sued, blacklisted and destroyed.

I disagree with this logic. I think Trump would rather lose, claim the election was rigged (as he is already claiming it will be), and hold on to his most slavishly devoted loyalists by fighting to the bitter end, than drop out and risk losing his cult-like following. His brand is already irreparably damaged with the broader public, his best remaining option is to continue carving out a niche for himself on the far right.

[PeteB]

Why in hell would he willingly drop out?

1. He just doesn't have it in him and I think he knows it (hence all the smoke signals for help, in the form of atrocious behavior)
2. Because he can extract a pound of flesh from the GOP and its donors (Koch brothers, how would you like to fund a major development in NYC? )
3. Because he is genuinely afraid that if he continues to run (and fails), he would be aggressively sued, blacklisted and destroyed.

I disagree with this logic. I think Trump would rather lose, claim the election was rigged (as he is already claiming it will be), and hold on to his most slavishly devoted loyalists by fighting to the bitter end, than drop out and risk losing his cult-like following. His brand is already irreparably damaged with the broader public, his best remaining option is to continue carving out a niche for himself on the far right.

You may disagree with this logic but you would be incorrect .  So far, there are only TWO things in his life that Trump truly cared about - his company and his family.  To believe that he would willingly sacrifice the future of both, for the uncertain devotion of his supporters, is not a smart conclusion.

And his brand is NOT damaged - publicity sells (assuming he can get some political protection to capitalize on his newly found fame).

[Fusionmunster]

Why in hell would he willingly drop out?

1. He just doesn't have it in him and I think he knows it (hence all the smoke signals for help, in the form of atrocious behavior)
2. Because he can extract a pound of flesh from the GOP and its donors (Koch brothers, how would you like to fund a major development in NYC? )
3. Because he is genuinely afraid that if he continues to run (and fails), he would be aggressively sued, blacklisted and destroyed.

I disagree with this logic. I think Trump would rather lose, claim the election was rigged (as he is already claiming it will be), and hold on to his most slavishly devoted loyalists by fighting to the bitter end, than drop out and risk losing his cult-like following. His brand is already irreparably damaged with the broader public, his best remaining option is to continue carving out a niche for himself on the far right.

You may disagree with this logic but you would be incorrect .  So far, there are only TWO things in his life that Trump truly cared about - his company and his family.  To believe that he would willingly sacrifice the future of both, for the uncertain devotion of his supporters, is not a smart conclusion.

And his brand is NOT damaged - publicity sells (assuming he can get some political protection to capitalize on his newly found fame).

Im sorry? Im not sure what makes you more of an expert on the inner workings of Trump's mind more so then anyone else here.

[ag]

There are also state deadline laws for replacements and ballot access. At some point it would be too late to take his name off.

Plus, in some states the ballots are printed soon (early Sept. I guess) so they can be sent to overseas Americans/military members.

That does not really matter. The real election is that by the electoral college. As long as the Republican electors are instructed to vote for the correct nominee, there is no problem, even if the original nominee drops out in early December.

[PeteB]

Why in hell would he willingly drop out?

1. He just doesn't have it in him and I think he knows it (hence all the smoke signals for help, in the form of atrocious behavior)
2. Because he can extract a pound of flesh from the GOP and its donors (Koch brothers, how would you like to fund a major development in NYC? )
3. Because he is genuinely afraid that if he continues to run (and fails), he would be aggressively sued, blacklisted and destroyed.

I disagree with this logic. I think Trump would rather lose, claim the election was rigged (as he is already claiming it will be), and hold on to his most slavishly devoted loyalists by fighting to the bitter end, than drop out and risk losing his cult-like following. His brand is already irreparably damaged with the broader public, his best remaining option is to continue carving out a niche for himself on the far right.

You may disagree with this logic but you would be incorrect .  So far, there are only TWO things in his life that Trump truly cared about - his company and his family.  To believe that he would willingly sacrifice the future of both, for the uncertain devotion of his supporters, is not a smart conclusion.

And his brand is NOT damaged - publicity sells (assuming he can get some political protection to capitalize on his newly found fame).

Im sorry? Im not sure what makes you more of an expert on the inner workings of Trump's mind more so then anyone else here.

Shhhhh, it's me - Ivanka .

[Seriously?]

Why in hell would he willingly drop out?

Because every red avatar hack on Atlas wills it to be so, of course. And then there's the real world where people don't give up while they are accomplishing things. Donald Trump, especially.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I really hope this happens now so I have the Great Honor of voting for America's first female President!

You can already have that honor anyway.

Not if Trump beats her and then LOCKS HER UP

[Lincoln Republican]

Trump won't be dropped, can't happen, but if he drops out himself

Romney/Pence

Romney is one of the few Republicans who has the gravitas, experience, knowledge, respect, intelligence to win.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Some combo of Pence/Ryan/Romney/Kasich/Cruz

Hoping for Newt and Christie to be in the discussion only to be sorely disappointed yet again

Ted Cruz would not be picked for either President or VP. Cruz is not liked by the established and the RNC is not giving the nomination to  a person that literally said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

on national TV at the Convention.

[Figueira]

I really hope this happens now so I have the Great Honor of voting for America's first female President!

Or you could vote for her anyway and not vote for the dangerous hipster racist demagogue.

Romney is one of the few Republicans who has the gravitas, experience, knowledge, respect, intelligence to win.

Just like in 2012?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Why in hell would he willingly drop out?

1. He just doesn't have it in him and I think he knows it (hence all the smoke signals for help, in the form of atrocious behavior)
2. Because he can extract a pound of flesh from the GOP and its donors (Koch brothers, how would you like to fund a major development in NYC? )
3. Because he is genuinely afraid that if he continues to run (and fails), he would be aggressively sued, blacklisted and destroyed.

I disagree with this logic. I think Trump would rather lose, claim the election was rigged (as he is already claiming it will be), and hold on to his most slavishly devoted loyalists by fighting to the bitter end, than drop out and risk losing his cult-like following. His brand is already irreparably damaged with the broader public, his best remaining option is to continue carving out a niche for himself on the far right.

You may disagree with this logic but you would be incorrect .  So far, there are only TWO things in his life that Trump truly cared about - his company and his family.  To believe that he would willingly sacrifice the future of both, for the uncertain devotion of his supporters, is not a smart conclusion.

And his brand is NOT damaged - publicity sells (assuming he can get some political protection to capitalize on his newly found fame).

I think you're missing the most important focus of his -- himself. His biographers have stated on multiple occasions that the man is by far and away a self-centered narcissist. If he believes in himself that much, I don't see him dropping out barring him being rendered physically unable to continue.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I think you're missing the most important focus of his -- himself. His biographers have stated on multiple occasions that the man is by far and away a self-centered narcissist. If he believes in himself that much, I don't see him dropping out barring him being rendered physically unable to continue.

Narcissists quit when the situation is too painful for their ego to bear.  If it gets to the point where he's being raked over the coals and there's a consensus nationwide that he's a horrible candidate and will absolutely lose by a wide margin, he might very well quit.  I guarantee you the daily attacks on him by Larry, Trevor, and other popular young commentators really hurt, because he's a thin-skinned egotist.

He could insulate himself in his cult, play to adoring, drooling crowds, continue making the outrageous remarks they love.  But the possibility of being completely humiliated in November would weigh heavily on him.

[defe07]

I'm wondering what will happen now!

Could many beltway Republicans throw their weight behind Gary Johnson, for example? Maybe we could have another 1912 Presidential election where the GOP is split in 2 (although there are some elected Republican officials who are saying they'll back Hillary, for example) o-O

[DrScholl]

Trump is going to "win" even if he loses. That is why he has started talking about the system being rigged and polls being phony. If he loses in November, he will just claim that Clinton stole the election and claim that the corrupt system kept him from being President.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I think you're missing the most important focus of his -- himself. His biographers have stated on multiple occasions that the man is by far and away a self-centered narcissist. If he believes in himself that much, I don't see him dropping out barring him being rendered physically unable to continue.

Narcissists quit when the situation is too painful for their ego to bear.  If it gets to the point where he's being raked over the coals and there's a consensus nationwide that he's a horrible candidate and will absolutely lose by a wide margin, he might very well quit.  I guarantee you the daily attacks on him by Larry, Trevor, and other popular young commentators really hurt, because he's a thin-skinned egotist.

He could insulate himself in his cult, play to adoring, drooling crowds, continue making the outrageous remarks they love.  But the possibility of being completely humiliated in November would weigh heavily on him.

Something that people have noticed about Trump is that when he's boxed in or questioned, he lashes out without control. I don't think anyone with that kind of disposition who's maintained it for this long will ever learn not to do it, or to accept any of his own possible failings.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump is going to "win" even if he loses. That is why he has started talking about the system being rigged and polls being phony. If he loses in November, he will just claim that Clinton stole the election and claim that the corrupt system kept him from being President.

If Clinton gets 2012+NC+AZ+GA+MO+others, that's the kind of result Trump can't spin into a "rigged election" narrative.  Trump would go down as a terrible failure.  And if it looks like that might happen, he very well might see quitting and walking away as the better alternative.

"The media has attacked me.  They lie about me.  They are so in bed with crooked Hillary, they have made it impossible for me.  I'm not going to dignify this rigged election by being a part of it."

[defe07]

Trump is going to "win" even if he loses. That is why he has started talking about the system being rigged and polls being phony. If he loses in November, he will just claim that Clinton stole the election and claim that the corrupt system kept him from being President.

So, basically, be the American version of Andrés López Obrador? You know the ex-Mexican Presidential candidate that didn't give up and had his supporters flood the streets of DF??

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Here's a thing I think a lot of people are forgetting here: it's still three months until the election. I could maybe see Trump being persuaded to drop out if it were early October and he was consistently down by double digits (by which time, of course, it would be too late to get him off the ballot in probably every state, so the point is moot) and didn't think he could recover. But that isn't where we are right now. Just a week ago there were polls showing him tied or even narrowly in the lead nationally. How do you convince him that things are hopeless now when they didn't seem to be hopeless then? Particularly when he is someone who has no sense of how elections are won and lost since he has never been a candidate before?

I don't see that happening, at least not at this point. If he's down 20 points at the end of the month, sure, maybe, but short of that, I don't see the argument that can get through to him.

[BlueSwan]

This premise is utter fantasyland nonsense.

For once, Seriously? is spot on.

[Phony Moderate]

If Clinton gets 2012+NC+AZ+GA+MO+others, that's the kind of result Trump can't spin into a "rigged election" narrative.  

Well he could claim that it's absurd that those states would ever vote for Hillary.

[Saruman]

Trump can't be dropped. He can only be "persuaded."

I think we have until September to get rid of him. Usually it is dumb to switch candidates so late due to infrastructure concerns, but it's not like Trump has helped us at all with that. It's pretty apparent that the risks with changing candidates are much less than staying on the current path.

If I was the RNC, I would make very clear to Trump's kids that there is no political future for them as Republicans if their dad stays in the race. I'd stop giving access to all the RNC stuff the Republican candidate usually gets. Tell GOP groups like the NRA to stop bothering to support him and dedicate all their time to saving Toomey/Ayotte and electing Heck. Offer all of Trump's staff higher paying jobs somewhere else. Make his life miserable.

As for the replacement, it would probably be a very fresh face. I doubt the RNC would want to nominate one of the losers from the primaries, and their hope is that nominating someone boring like Thune they might be able to salvage this election against someone unpopular like Clinton.

[Saruman]

Trump won't be dropped, can't happen, but if he drops out himself

Romney/Pence

Romney is one of the few Republicans who has the gravitas, experience, knowledge, respect, intelligence to win.

Romney's fav #s among Republicans are sh**t. No way you'd get away with that.

[Simfan34]

Considering how determined the GOP Establishment was to ignore Kasich I doubt they'd give him the time of day even then, when he'd be the only person with the chance of, at best squeaking out a narrow victory.

Keep in mind that if Trump were to drop out he'd probably be down somewhere in the mid-to-high-teens by the end of things. Any plausible recovery would require a candidate who could boast of never having associated themselves with Trump and would in other circumstances have been highly electable.

This would narrow it down to Romney and Kasich, and Kasich would have the benefit of not having a previous election's worth of baggage on his back, with little time to dig up dirt (at the same time, many of the attacks on Romney would have lost their potency, all things considered). But as I said in the other thread, it would probably be Pence.

[mvd10]

Trump won't be dropped, can't happen, but if he drops out himself

Romney/Pence

Romney is one of the few Republicans who has the gravitas, experience, knowledge, respect, intelligence to win.

Not going to happen:
 http://www.gallup.com/poll/193802/paul-ryan-maintains-positive-image-among-republicans.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

His anti-Trump campaign has really hurt him. I'm still hoping for Romney 2020 if Trump completely implodes but that's just not going to happen.

[Mallow]

Trump is not going to be dropped, or drop out of his own volition. Let's stop eating up the tabloid rumors already.