Gallup Trump & Clinton favorability numbers megathread

[dspNY]

Right now Hillary's favorables are 42/54
Trump's are 32/63

[dspNY]

Right now Hillary's favorables are 42/54
Trump's are 32/63

As Harry Enten notes, that means that, like the state polls, the favorables have shown no movement since the convention bounce and, in fact, have improved a tiny bit for Clinton since then.

This is Gallup's way of saying Clinton has a high single digit lead without putting out actual horserace numbers. When one candidate's favorables are 10 points better than the other, there's no way the race is +1 towards the less popular candidate like the LA Times poll or +1 towards the more popular candidate like the UPI poll. Gallup's #s are actually more in line with how both parties are behaving (GOP cutting loose Trump and Dems trying to figure out how big their win is going to be)

[dspNY]

Clinton has seen a bump, Trump a decline

We should see some polling returning Hillary to a clear lead soon because Gallup pretty much has the trend of the election perfect with their favorable ratings

[dspNY]

I'm basically saying that Gallup is the best leading indicator of all the polls that follow (national and state)

[dspNY]

Look at the Gallup favorables graph and transpose it onto either the RCP average or Pollster and you'll see the leading indicator from Gallup

[dspNY]

Current sample (Sep 27-Oct 3) is:

Trump 33/63 (-30)
Clinton 42/54 (-12)

The oldest sample on their page (Sep 3-10) is Trump 35/50 (-25), Clinton 38/57 (-19).  The net change since then is Trump -5, Clinton +7.

Those numbers would give Clinton a 7-8 point national win