North Carolina-Civatas/SurveyUSA Trump +4
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Author Topic: North Carolina-Civatas/SurveyUSA Trump +4  (Read 2910 times)
mds32
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« on: August 03, 2016, 02:37:57 PM »

North Carolina
Civatas/SurveyUSA

Trump 46%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 6%

https://www.nccivitas.org/2016/civitas-releases-post-conventions-survey-of-north-carolina-voters/
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2016, 02:41:29 PM »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922001338933248

Civitas/SurveyUSA has Trump+4 in North Carolina, but black voters are woefully underrepresented (18%, shld be >=22)

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922404923244544

Poll is also too old, too male,. This is a sample off the voter file, which in NC has race/age/gender, so there's no excuse

Plus blacks support Trump 32%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2016, 02:41:46 PM »

Odd ...
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2016, 02:42:11 PM »

Damn it! Still, MoE is 5%, which is rather big. Furthermore, the crosstabs have Trump winning 18-34 voters by 8% AND 23% of Registered Democrats? Odd to say the least.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2016, 02:42:36 PM »

Trump +10 in the two-way... lol.

Last three Civitas polls:

6/21-6/23: Clinton +2
5/21-5/23: Trump +4
4/25-4/25: Clinton +9

Junk.
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2016, 02:43:22 PM »

Only 18% of the sample is African-American. 23% of the 2012 electorate was African-American, plus there is no ID law or voter restrictions. And Trump getting 1/3 of African-Americans in North Carolina is preposterous
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2016, 02:44:20 PM »

Shoot, so much for Lean D NC...
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2016, 02:44:43 PM »

Internals are a disaster for Clinton (too few blacks, 1/3 blacks going for Trump, Trump winning 18-34 year olds)... and Trump still leads by only 4. NC is clearly in play.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2016, 02:45:01 PM »

Bad!
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2016, 02:46:20 PM »

I thought it was odd when the Clinton's weren't spending the most money in NC and spending more on defending states like OH and FL
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heatcharger
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« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2016, 02:57:43 PM »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922001338933248

Civitas/SurveyUSA has Trump+4 in North Carolina, but black voters are woefully underrepresented (18%, shld be >=22)

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922404923244544

Poll is also too old, too male,. This is a sample off the voter file, which in NC has race/age/gender, so there's no excuse

Plus blacks support Trump 32%

Everyone go look at the NC voter file...

Black vote is at 22%, Civitas thinks it's 18%.
Female vote is 53%, Civitas thinks it's 50%.
Can't find any age statistics but 60% of the voting population being >50 seems too high.

I'm not gonna pull a StatesPoll but this poll is off in a lot of regards.

There needs to be a complete and total shutdown of Civitas polls until they figure out what is going on.
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Devils30
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« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2016, 03:00:18 PM »

Clinton is probably up 2 or so there now.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2016, 03:02:37 PM »

North Carolina isn't leaving the Confederacy as quickly as Virginia, it appears.

Lol at Trump at 32% with blacks.

Put it in the shredder and burn the shreds and spread the ashes along the Appalachian Trail.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2016, 03:03:05 PM »

Clinton is up 5-7 in National polls, but Trump is +10 head-to-head in NC? Seems like an outlier. Or Clinton's bounce diminished Evil
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #14 on: August 03, 2016, 03:11:34 PM »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922001338933248

Civitas/SurveyUSA has Trump+4 in North Carolina, but black voters are woefully underrepresented (18%, shld be >=22)

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922404923244544

Poll is also too old, too male,. This is a sample off the voter file, which in NC has race/age/gender, so there's no excuse

Plus blacks support Trump 32%

Everyone go look at the NC voter file...

Black vote is at 22%, Civitas thinks it's 18%.
Female vote is 53%, Civitas thinks it's 50%.
Can't find any age statistics but 60% of the voting population being >50 seems too high.

I'm not gonna pull a StatesPoll but this poll is off in a lot of regards.

There needs to be a complete and total shutdown of Civitas polls until they figure out what is going on.
SurveyUSA interviewed 400 likely November voters from the entire state of North Carolina 07/31/16 through 08/02/16 using blended sample, mixed mode.

RV ≠ LV

This election is unique and the turnout might change a lot among different groups.

But still it is likely to be an outlier.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #15 on: August 03, 2016, 03:17:39 PM »

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/760931696380219396

Dave Weigel noted that Obama won here in 2008 with 35% of whites. Hillary's at 38% here and the state has gotten less white in 8 years.
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mencken
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« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2016, 03:19:52 PM »

For the unskewers here, SurveyUSA sort of has a reputation of having accurate topline numbers with screwy crosstabs.
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #17 on: August 03, 2016, 03:32:55 PM »

Seems reasonable. I would not be surprised if it's flippable, though.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: August 03, 2016, 05:16:41 PM »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922001338933248

Civitas/SurveyUSA has Trump+4 in North Carolina, but black voters are woefully underrepresented (18%, shld be >=22)

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922404923244544

Poll is also too old, too male,. This is a sample off the voter file, which in NC has race/age/gender, so there's no excuse

Plus blacks support Trump 32%

Everyone go look at the NC voter file...

Black vote is at 22%, Civitas thinks it's 18%.
Female vote is 53%, Civitas thinks it's 50%.
Can't find any age statistics but 60% of the voting population being >50 seems too high.

I'm not gonna pull a StatesPoll but this poll is off in a lot of regards.

There needs to be a complete and total shutdown of Civitas polls until they figure out what is going on.
SurveyUSA interviewed 400 likely November voters from the entire state of North Carolina 07/31/16 through 08/02/16 using blended sample, mixed mode.

RV ≠ LV

This election is unique and the turnout might change a lot among different groups.

But still it is likely to be an outlier.

I will not use this poll. You can count on PPP getting a poll of North Carolina fairly soon, anyway. That will be worth the wait.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #19 on: August 03, 2016, 05:20:28 PM »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922001338933248

Civitas/SurveyUSA has Trump+4 in North Carolina, but black voters are woefully underrepresented (18%, shld be >=22)

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922404923244544

Poll is also too old, too male,. This is a sample off the voter file, which in NC has race/age/gender, so there's no excuse

Plus blacks support Trump 32%

Everyone go look at the NC voter file...

Black vote is at 22%, Civitas thinks it's 18%.
Female vote is 53%, Civitas thinks it's 50%.
Can't find any age statistics but 60% of the voting population being >50 seems too high.

I'm not gonna pull a StatesPoll but this poll is off in a lot of regards.

There needs to be a complete and total shutdown of Civitas polls until they figure out what is going on.
SurveyUSA interviewed 400 likely November voters from the entire state of North Carolina 07/31/16 through 08/02/16 using blended sample, mixed mode.

RV ≠ LV

This election is unique and the turnout might change a lot among different groups.

But still it is likely to be an outlier.

I will not use this poll. You can count on PPP getting a poll of North Carolina fairly soon, anyway. That will be worth the wait.
So you're only using polls you like now
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2016, 05:26:19 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2016, 05:30:27 PM by pbrower2a »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922001338933248

Civitas/SurveyUSA has Trump+4 in North Carolina, but black voters are woefully underrepresented (18%, shld be >=22)

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922404923244544

Poll is also too old, too male,. This is a sample off the voter file, which in NC has race/age/gender, so there's no excuse

Plus blacks support Trump 32%

Everyone go look at the NC voter file...

Black vote is at 22%, Civitas thinks it's 18%.
Female vote is 53%, Civitas thinks it's 50%.
Can't find any age statistics but 60% of the voting population being >50 seems too high.

I'm not gonna pull a StatesPoll but this poll is off in a lot of regards.

There needs to be a complete and total shutdown of Civitas polls until they figure out what is going on.
SurveyUSA interviewed 400 likely November voters from the entire state of North Carolina 07/31/16 through 08/02/16 using blended sample, mixed mode.

RV ≠ LV

This election is unique and the turnout might change a lot among different groups.

But still it is likely to be an outlier.

I will not use this poll. You can count on PPP getting a poll of North Carolina fairly soon, anyway. That will be worth the wait.
So you're only using polls you like now

As soon as I saw evidence that the Utah poll was a fake I rejected it.

....PPP polls North Carolina more than any other state, and nobody polls North Carolina as often as does PPP. Civitas has been all over the board. Screwy crosstabs get screwy results.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2016, 05:27:03 PM »

oh noooo
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windjammer
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« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2016, 05:28:24 PM »

Does anyone really believe that Trump will get 30% of the black vote?

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: August 03, 2016, 05:32:02 PM »

Does anyone really believe that Trump will get 30% of the black vote?



Getting a 4% edge in North Carolina? Maybe. An unusually-small black vote that goes 32% for Trump? That isn't going to happen. 
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #24 on: August 03, 2016, 05:55:58 PM »

Does anyone really believe that Trump will get 30% of the black vote?

     This poll is hot trash. Nothing to see here....
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