When will the GOP win the race for governor in WA again?

[CT27]

I severely doubt it will be this election, but how long before you think the GOP has a decent shot at winning the governor's race in Washington state?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Possibly 2020, however that will depend whether Inslee runs again, and who the GOP nominates. I will say by 2032 but who knows. The problem for the GOP is Governors elections are held in Presidential years, and the electorate is so polarized that it is difficult to get large swings. 

[Kingpoleon]

It will be competitive if McKenna runs again. Otherwise, Jaime Beutler, Cathy Rodgers, Kim Wyman, and Hans Zeiger seem like their best hope for the foreseeable future.

To answer the OP question, maybe as early as 2020. To answer the thread question, I'd say 2028 at the latest.

[evergreenarbor]

Washington is trending Democratic. I don't think they have a realistic shot at the governorship unless they run a very good candidate while the Democrats run a very bad one.

[andrew_c]

Whenever there are too many Democrats running in the primary, and 2 Republicans advance to the general. Refer to the current race for State Treasurer.

[CT27]

Possibly 2020, however that will depend whether Inslee runs again, and who the GOP nominates. I will say by 2032 but who knows. The problem for the GOP is Governors elections are held in Presidential years, and the electorate is so polarized that it is difficult to get large swings. 

That's a good point about WA governor elections being held in Presidential election years.
Concerning the two sort of recent governor elections then:  do you all think Rossi could have beat Gregoire, and could McKenna have beat Inslee if those contests weren't in Presidential election years?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Possibly 2020, however that will depend whether Inslee runs again, and who the GOP nominates. I will say by 2032 but who knows. The problem for the GOP is Governors elections are held in Presidential years, and the electorate is so polarized that it is difficult to get large swings. 

That's a good point about WA governor elections being held in Presidential election years.
Concerning the two sort of recent governor elections then:  do you all think Rossi could have beat Gregoire, and could McKenna have beat Inslee if those contests weren't in Presidential election years?

Yes to both.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Possibly 2020, however that will depend whether Inslee runs again, and who the GOP nominates. I will say by 2032 but who knows. The problem for the GOP is Governors elections are held in Presidential years, and the electorate is so polarized that it is difficult to get large swings.  

That's a good point about WA governor elections being held in Presidential election years.
Concerning the two sort of recent governor elections then:  do you all think Rossi could have beat Gregoire, and could McKenna have beat Inslee if those contests weren't in Presidential election years?

In 2006 Gregorie would beat Rossi by 5-7 points, largely attributed to backlash against Bush and the Iraq war.
In 2010 Rossi probably wins, I would say by 2-4 points
In 2014 McKenna would win an open seat narrowly by 1-2 points. However I don't think Bryant would win in 2014.

[Heisenberg]

Possibly 2020, however that will depend whether Inslee runs again, and who the GOP nominates. I will say by 2032 but who knows. The problem for the GOP is Governors elections are held in Presidential years, and the electorate is so polarized that it is difficult to get large swings. 

That's a good point about WA governor elections being held in Presidential election years.
Concerning the two sort of recent governor elections then:  do you all think Rossi could have beat Gregoire, and could McKenna have beat Inslee if those contests weren't in Presidential election years?

In 2006 Gregorie would beat Rossi by 5-7 points, largely attributed to backlash against Bush and the Iraq war.
In 2010 Rossi probably wins, I would say by 2-4 points
In 2014 McKenna would win an open seat narrowly by 1-2 points. However I don't think Bryant would win in 2014.

I agree.

Back to the original question: The GOP may get lucky and have a race like the treasurer race (R vs R).

It will be competitive if McKenna runs again. Otherwise, Jaime Beutler, Cathy Rodgers, Kim Wyman, and Hans Zeiger seem like their best hope for the foreseeable future.

To answer the OP question, maybe as early as 2020. To answer the thread question, I'd say 2028 at the latest.

Dave Reichert is another good statewide candidate, and maybe the winner of the treasurer race. I doubt am amortize Rodgers runs statewide given her House seniority. I know that's not unprecedented (Trent Lott, Roy Blunt), but they were in Republican-leaning states, unlike Rodgers.

[Xing]

It won't be easy. Even though there is some Democratic fatigue here (at the statewide level,) there just aren't enough swing voters in Washington, and other than McKenna, not many Republicans have the kind of crossover appeal necessary to win. If McKenna runs again in 2020, it's possible he could win in a favorable environment, otherwise it will be a while.

[KingSweden]

Someone like Steve Litzow may be perceived as non-partisan enough to make a run (and I would probably vote for the man if he did), but the state GOP definitely needs a rethink on their approach. The State Senate openly antagonizing Seattle area voters the last few years to appeal to their E WA base isn't doing them any favors. The GOP's struggles in the suburbs, even though that's where all their bench talent really comes from, has hurt them long term.

[Vosem]

The WAGOP seems to be very competent and moderate; they've been winning lesser statewide elections for decades and have kept the last three gubernatorial elections within single digits. Inslee seems popular and the national climate right now isn't helping, but there's a solid bench to choose from for 2020.

[Pandaguineapig]

The wagop will likely win the SOS race and has a lock on treasurer, inslee was held under 50% but likely needs some bad headlines for Bryant to win, so 2020 should be a good chance

[Ogre Mage]

Unfortunately for the WA GOP, Washington State Democrats have a much stronger bench for governor when Inslee retires (probably in 2020):  King County Executive Dow Constantine and Attorney General Bob Ferguson.  A messy Constantine vs. Ferguson primary might allow the WA GOP to play divide & conquer, so hopefully Inslee will be in a position to broker a deal.

[Seattle]

^Exactly. The only way the GOP wins in 2020 is a messy Ferguson - Constantine battle.
I haven't heard much about Ferguson wanting to run for Governor, but it's no secret Dow Constantine does (he's the current and popular King County Executive).

Unless Inslee is very popular in 2018-2019 (which I really doubt he will be), he'll retire.

Also, another thing that's helped keep the governor's seat in D control has been the success of Republicans in the state legislature. There would be more D fatigue if the R's didn't keep it so close there.

[Mike Thick]

Basically, what other posters have already said -- a messy Democratic primary that results in a damaged and possibly outright crappy candidate, up against an extremely strong Republican.

I don't pretend to know the first thing about Washington politics, but Kim Wyman has won statewide before and seems likely to do so again, which demonstrates some serious crossover appeal. Steve Litzow is someone else I could see doing well. 

[Maxwell]

Republicans nominate Andy Hill or Steve Litzlow, Democrats nominate that weird communist girl.

[Bojack Horseman]

When pigs fly, the stars start falling, and the Lions win the Super Bowl.

[Pandaguineapig]

When pigs fly, the stars start falling, and the Lions win the Super Bowl.

If republicans can win and have a popular governor in Maryland it is certainly possible

[Ogre Mage]

When pigs fly, the stars start falling, and the Lions win the Super Bowl.

If republicans can win and have a popular governor in Maryland it is certainly possible

In Maryland there is history within the last decade of Republicans winning the Governor's Mansion.

In Washington State, Republicans have not won a governor's race since 1980 -- the year of the Reagan Revolution.  John Spellman was defeated for reelection by Democrat Booth Gardner in 1984.  Since then, Washington State Democrats have had a stranglehold on the Governor's Mansion for 32 consecutive years.  When Inslee wins reelection in 2016 it will stretch to 36 years!

[mds32]

When pigs fly, the stars start falling, and the Lions win the Super Bowl.

If republicans can win and have a popular governor in Maryland it is certainly possible

In Maryland there is history within the last decade of Republicans winning the Governor's Mansion.

In Washington State, Republicans have not won a governor's race since 1980 -- the year of the Reagan Revolution.  John Spellman was defeated for reelection by Democrat Booth Gardner in 1984.  Since then, Washington State Democrats have had a stranglehold on the Governor's Mansion for 32 consecutive years.  When Inslee wins reelection in 2016 it will stretch to 36 years!

You could say the same for South Dakota where Republicans have had a stranglehold for 40 consecutive years!

I honestly think with the fact that the WAGOP is probably the strongest since 2000 that 2020 or 2024 may be the year that this breaks.

[Ogre Mage]

When pigs fly, the stars start falling, and the Lions win the Super Bowl.

If republicans can win and have a popular governor in Maryland it is certainly possible

In Maryland there is history within the last decade of Republicans winning the Governor's Mansion.

In Washington State, Republicans have not won a governor's race since 1980 -- the year of the Reagan Revolution.  John Spellman was defeated for reelection by Democrat Booth Gardner in 1984.  Since then, Washington State Democrats have had a stranglehold on the Governor's Mansion for 32 consecutive years.  When Inslee wins reelection in 2016 it will stretch to 36 years!

You could say the same for South Dakota where Republicans have had a stranglehold for 40 consecutive years!

I honestly think with the fact that the WAGOP is probably the strongest since 2000 that 2020 or 2024 may be the year that this breaks.

Perhaps.  But I heard a great deal of similar talk in 2012 about then-AG McKenna being the Great Republican Hope and we saw how that turned out.

[publicunofficial]

When pigs fly, the stars start falling, and the Lions win the Super Bowl.

If republicans can win and have a popular governor in Maryland it is certainly possible

In Maryland there is history within the last decade of Republicans winning the Governor's Mansion.

In Washington State, Republicans have not won a governor's race since 1980 -- the year of the Reagan Revolution.  John Spellman was defeated for reelection by Democrat Booth Gardner in 1984.  Since then, Washington State Democrats have had a stranglehold on the Governor's Mansion for 32 consecutive years.  When Inslee wins reelection in 2016 it will stretch to 36 years!

You could say the same for South Dakota where Republicans have had a stranglehold for 40 consecutive years!

I honestly think with the fact that the WAGOP is probably the strongest since 2000 that 2020 or 2024 may be the year that this breaks.

In what way is the WAGOP the "strongest they've been since 2000?" They're currently running the weakest slate of candidates in their history, and lucked into a statewide office pick-up. They didn't even contest the Attorney General race, which they held as little as 4 years ago.

At this point, I can't see the Republicans winning unless Inslee or one of his Democrat successors majorly f***-up, or happens to be in office when a recession hits something like that.