MI-DetroitNews/@Local4News: Clinton +9
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  MI-DetroitNews/@Local4News: Clinton +9
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Author Topic: MI-DetroitNews/@Local4News: Clinton +9  (Read 1060 times)
Fargobison
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« on: August 03, 2016, 10:29:46 PM »



http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/08/03/poll-clinton-leads-trump-michigan/88048440/
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2016, 10:30:27 PM »

Welcome back Michigan, as always Smiley
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2016, 10:31:36 PM »

Her lead is realistic. Third party numbers seem too high.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2016, 10:32:13 PM »

Michigan usually underestimates Dems by a few points. This is good.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2016, 10:32:28 PM »

lol. If a Michigan poll is showing Clinton up this much, she's winning it in a walk.
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2016, 10:33:02 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2016, 10:35:14 PM by dspNY »

Likely D. The Detroit News writeup says that Clinton is leading in west and southwest Michigan, which are usually Republican areas. That means she is probably up double digits which is why there have been no ads run in Mich
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2016, 10:34:58 PM »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html

Obama led in Michigan polls by only 4, then went on to win the state by TEN POINTS.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2016, 10:38:47 PM »

Yup, a poll like this suggests a double-digit THUMPING for Clinton in the shaped-like-a-mitten state.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2016, 10:45:24 PM »

lol. If a Michigan poll is showing Clinton up this much, she's winning it in a walk.

Indeed
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2016, 10:50:53 PM »

Triggered by decimals.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2016, 10:52:57 PM »


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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2016, 11:53:09 PM »

Trump winning Michigan was always a pipe dream. Glad to see Michigan polls showing what an FF state it is.
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Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #12 on: August 04, 2016, 12:01:46 AM »

Michigan has been Safe D since the Flint crisis broke.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #13 on: August 04, 2016, 12:16:09 AM »

That leaves the only road for Trump through Wisconsin.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #14 on: August 04, 2016, 12:38:48 AM »

Every cycle, Michigan flirts with the GOP in the summer, and every cycle, it comes home to team blue.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2016, 05:30:48 AM »

Michigan, the poorest state behind the Blue Firewall except for New Mexico, looks to be swinging hard and unusually early against Donald Trump. The low side for a Clinton victory in Michigan is now about Obama 2012 and the strongest is perhaps Obama 2012.

D wins of Michigan since 1932:

1932 FDR 52-44
1936 FDR 56-39
1944 FDR 50-49
1960 JFK  51-49
1964 LBJ  64-36
1968 Humphrey 48-41 (Wallace 10)
1992 Clinton 44-36 (Perot 19)
1996 Clinton 51-38 (Perot 9) 
2000 Gore 51-46
2004 Kerry 51-48
2008 Obama 57-41
2012 Obama 54-45

At this point I'd predict Hillary Clinton winning Michigan and other about like Reagan in 1984 (59-40) on the high side or Obama 2012 on the low side, which suggests a regional landslides in the Northeast, Midwest, and Far West. The Franklin and Marshall poll in Pennsylvania (the shakiest state behind the Democratic Firewall) suggests that the only way for a Trump victory requires him to win almost everything outside of the Democratic Firewall.

I'm guessing that Gary Johnson is taking a bunch of voters who would almost never vote Democratic, and he may keep Hillary Clinton from winning the state like LBJ in 1964.

Safe D, as if the Democrats winning the open Senate seat in a catastrophic year for Democrats in 2014 did not so suggest.     
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