KY-Harper: Trump +13
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Author Topic: KY-Harper: Trump +13  (Read 1641 times)
JRP1994
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« on: August 04, 2016, 10:24:39 AM »
https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/761218669070262272

No crosstabs or data yet
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Mallow
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2016, 10:27:51 AM »
He better win by a lot more than 13 in KY if he wants any chance in the general.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2016, 10:28:06 AM »
Bevin's approval ratings at 52 seems unrealistic.
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2016, 10:36:13 AM »
Romney won Kentucky by 23 in 2012. It was the 7th best state for the GOP last time around
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2016, 10:38:40 AM »
Quote from: dspNY on August 04, 2016, 10:36:13 AM
Romney won Kentucky by 23 in 2012. It was the 7th best state for the GOP last time around
Kinda fits with Clinton being up 10 nationally.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2016, 10:40:31 AM »
And apparently it's a landline only poll as well. Any chance Kentucky isn't called right away when the polls close?
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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2016, 10:43:03 AM »
Quote from: Mehmentum on August 04, 2016, 10:38:40 AM
Quote from: dspNY on August 04, 2016, 10:36:13 AM
Romney won Kentucky by 23 in 2012. It was the 7th best state for the GOP last time around
Kinda fits with Clinton being up 10 nationally.

At least 10 since KY was R+23 while the nation was D+4 in 2012
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2016, 10:48:37 AM »
Today I learned that Hillary Clinton has a bigger lead in NH than Donald Trump has in KY.

Khizr Khan... 2016 MVP.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2016, 10:57:34 AM »
When state polls confirm the national polls then you know something is there. If this is any way accurate then Trump needs to get on message immediately.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2016, 11:03:28 AM »
Quote from: RJEvans on August 04, 2016, 10:57:34 AM
When state polls confirm the national polls then you know something is there. If this is any way accurate then Trump needs to get on message immediately.
Yeah in June Clinton had a similar national lead but the state polls suggested a closer race. This time they seem in line.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2016, 11:27:50 AM »
Quote from: Castro on August 04, 2016, 10:40:31 AM
And apparently it's a landline only poll as well. Any chance Kentucky isn't called right away when the polls close?

I doubt it. Even if Trump only wins by about 13, they'll still probably be able to call it, since they'll have some results from the Eastern part of the state. If Kentucky isn't called, Hillary will win in a landslide.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2016, 11:32:04 AM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 04, 2016, 11:27:50 AM
Quote from: Castro on August 04, 2016, 10:40:31 AM
And apparently it's a landline only poll as well. Any chance Kentucky isn't called right away when the polls close?

I doubt it. Even if Trump only wins by about 13, they'll still probably be able to call it, since they'll have some results from the Eastern part of the state. If Kentucky isn't called, Hillary will win in a landslide.

It will depend on if they do an exit poll in Kentucky. The fact that they have been cutting back on the states they poll, networks will probably have to wait for some raw votes to come in before making a call (like what happened with the Democratic Primary in Louisiana).
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #12 on: August 04, 2016, 12:11:15 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 04, 2016, 11:32:04 AM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 04, 2016, 11:27:50 AM
Quote from: Castro on August 04, 2016, 10:40:31 AM
And apparently it's a landline only poll as well. Any chance Kentucky isn't called right away when the polls close?

I doubt it. Even if Trump only wins by about 13, they'll still probably be able to call it, since they'll have some results from the Eastern part of the state. If Kentucky isn't called, Hillary will win in a landslide.

It will depend on if they do an exit poll in Kentucky. The fact that they have been cutting back on the states they poll, networks will probably have to wait for some raw votes to come in before making a call (like what happened with the Democratic Primary in Louisiana).

They will do exit polls in all 50 states this year, thank goodness.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: August 04, 2016, 12:17:21 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on August 04, 2016, 12:11:15 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 04, 2016, 11:32:04 AM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 04, 2016, 11:27:50 AM
Quote from: Castro on August 04, 2016, 10:40:31 AM
And apparently it's a landline only poll as well. Any chance Kentucky isn't called right away when the polls close?

I doubt it. Even if Trump only wins by about 13, they'll still probably be able to call it, since they'll have some results from the Eastern part of the state. If Kentucky isn't called, Hillary will win in a landslide.

It will depend on if they do an exit poll in Kentucky. The fact that they have been cutting back on the states they poll, networks will probably have to wait for some raw votes to come in before making a call (like what happened with the Democratic Primary in Louisiana).

They will do exit polls in all 50 states this year, thank goodness.

Awesome! That was so stupid 4 years ago.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #14 on: August 04, 2016, 02:40:53 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on August 04, 2016, 01:33:14 PM
Democrats have been consistently over polling by up to 10% in KY throughout the Obama era.  I would not assume Trump will do meaningfully worse than Romney here.

Well, it is a Republican pollster, and they didn't poll cell phones. I don't know how much of a difference that makes.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2016, 02:43:34 PM »
Clinton country.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: August 04, 2016, 02:46:24 PM »
Does this mean Clinton holds Elliot County?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2016, 02:47:28 PM »
Someone on Free Republic just said this same pollster just put Nevada at Trump +7. I don't recall it ever being mentioned here.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #18 on: August 04, 2016, 02:47:54 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 04, 2016, 02:46:24 PM
Does this mean Clinton holds Elliot County?

Was there really any doubt?
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windjammer
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« Reply #19 on: August 04, 2016, 03:06:50 PM »
I would like a reliable company to poll Kentucky.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #20 on: August 04, 2016, 03:39:05 PM »
As much as I like Clinton, you guys are really, really biased when it comes to which polls you accept and which ones you don't.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #21 on: August 04, 2016, 03:43:36 PM »
Quote from: ͡◔ ᴥ ͡◔ on August 04, 2016, 03:39:05 PM
As much as I like Clinton, you guys are really, really biased when it comes to which polls you accept and which ones you don't.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: August 05, 2016, 12:26:30 AM »
New Poll: Kentucky President by Harper Polling on 2016-08-01

Summary: D: 36%, R: 49%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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