Marijuana 2016!

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Trump needs to push for legalizing it.

[NOVA Green]

So here's a county level map of the Cali legalization vote, although granted there are still a few Million ballots outstanding in the Golden State...

Colors codes:

Dark Green= = +20% Legalization Margins
Medium Green = 10-20% Legalization Margins
Light Green= 0.1-10% Legalization Margins
Light Purple= 0.1-10% Anti-Legalization Margins
Darker Purple= 10-20% Anti-Legalization Margins


A few counties might be slightly off due to issues with Paint.Net and the Cali map I downloaded....

Now the most interesting thing is less that Californians voted to legalize recreational Marijuana, but rather where these votes were cast...

So, for example in heavily "small-farmer" dope growing counties of the Emerald Triangle (Humboldt-Mendocino, and Trinity), there was a clear backlash, since many of these farmers see their income under attack at the hands of giant "factory farmers" that they feel will dominate the Cannabis market in Post-Legalization Cali.

Meanwhile you have many heavily Republican and overwhelmingly "Trump Counties" where legalization only lost narrowly, despite a 60-40+ Trump win in places like Shasta, Redding, and small communities in the foothills of the Sierra-Nevadas....

Additionally, it appears that in heavily Latino, Asian-American, and African-American counties, there was a significant drop-off in support for legalization versus urban Metro counties with a higher Anglo population....

Will definitely need to examine precinct level returns in more detail, but for now here's some hard data... Enjoy

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Oregon, there were a ton of Marijuana related items on the ballot at municipal levels, that were hard wired into to the 2014 Legalization Ballot.

Basically they broke down into two categories involving local control involving Herb:

1.) Municipal Sales Taxes ranging from 1.5-4% overwhelmingly passed in most municipilities.

2.) City/county measures regarding medical/recreational bans etc...

Essentially the current law is now creating a mix of "wet" and "dry" counties and cities, even in an overwhelmingly Post-Prohibition era.

Most notably there are now two entirely "dry counties" in Western Oregon that are populous (Douglas and Marion) where although one can obviously grow and consume, it will require driving a distance in order to purchase medical and recreational marijuana.

Meanwhile there are various small towns and cities that voted to ban sales of recreational Herb, most notably Lake Oswego and West Linn (Wealthy 'Hoods in Clackamas Co), but generally Prohibition was rejected even in heavily Republican Counties (Linn County) as well as in medium-sized cities (Gladstone, Oregon City, Medford, Lebanon, Albany).

Coos Bay overwhelmingly overturned a ban on MJ sales in their city, and a few small towns on the Northern Oregon Coast (Manzanita & Cannon Beach) effectively overturned local bans, to make it easier for tourists and locals alike to buy a nug and not have to deal with driving in inclement Winter Coastal weather....

BTW... not sure about the emotis with shades popping up on the list below, since these are not deliberate and have no idea about how they appear when I am simply entering percentages with parenthases....


Clackamas- Gladstone--- NO (49.2-50.
Clackamas-- Lake Oswego-- YES (60.6-39.4)
Clackamas--- Canby voted against the lifting the MJ Ban (40.2-59.
Clackamas--- Oregon City--- NO (45.5-54.5)
Clackamas--- Sandy--- YES (56.2-43.
Clackamas--- West Linn--- YES (61.0-39.0)
Clackamas---- Wilsonville--- YES (64.1-35.9)
Clatsop--- Cannon Beach--- NO (48.7-51.3)
Columbia---Scappoose--- NO (37.3-62.7)
Coos--- Coos Bay voted to lift the MJ Ban (60.2-39.8 YES)
Coos--- Myrtle Point--- NO (48.1-51.9)
Deschutes--- LaPine--- NO (39.7-60.3)
Douglas County---- (Bans both dispensaries and recreational (52% YES on dispensary ban and 55% on recreational)
Gilliam County--- NO on ban of dispensaries and recreational (43.5-56.5)
Jackson County- Central Point--- YES ban on dispensaries (56.3-43.7)
Jackson---- Eagle Point--- YES (58.3-41.7)
Jackson--- Jacksonville--- YES to ban on dispensaries (69.1-30.9)
Jackson--- Medford--- YES to banning growing legal weed outdoors (66.2-33.
Jackson--- Medford--- NO to banning MJ Sales (47.7-52.3)
Jefferson County--- YES to banning Marijuana Processing (52.5-47.5)
Jefferson County--- YES to banning growing recreational MJ (51.4-48.6)
Jefferson County--- YES to banning MJ wholesalers in the county (53.0-47.0)
Jefferson County---- YES to banning MJ retail sales in the county (53.3-46.7)
Jefferson County--- NO to banning medical MJ Dispensaries (48.7-51.3)
Jefferson County--- NO to banning Medical MJ Processing (47.9-52.1)
Jefferson--- Madras--- NO to an MJ Sales Ban (44.0-56.0)
Lake County---- YES to banning all rec and medicinal MJ sales (38.5-61.5)
Lane-- Coburg--- YES (62.1-37.9)
Lane-- Creswell--- YES (52.6-47.4)
Linn County- MJ Sales Ban-- NO (46.3-53.7)
Linn- Albany--- NO (36.2-63.
Linn- Brownsville--- NO (49.8-50.2)
Linn- Halsey-- YES (52.7-47.3)
Linn- Harrisburg- YES (55.3-44.7)
Linn- Lebanon- NO (39.9-60.1)
Linn- Lyons- YES (54.9-45.1)
Linn- Mill City- YES (52.5-47.5)
Linn-- Millersburg- YES (52.5-47.5)
Linn- Sweet Home- NO to ban on medical dispensaries (42.5-57.5)
Linn- Sweet Home- NO to ban on sales (45.2-54.
Linn- Tangent- NO (44.7-55.3)
Marion County--- YES to banning Rec MJ Sales (53.1-46.9)
Marion County--- YES to banning Medical MJ (50.6-49.4)
Marion- Aumsville- YES (51.6-48.4)
Marion- Gervais--- NO (33.1-66.9)
Marion- Hubbard-- NO (46.5-53.5)
Marion- Mt Angel- YES to banning medical and recreational MJ Sales (55.3-44.7)
Marion- Scotts Mill- YES (63.5-36.5)
Marion- Sublimity- YES (55.0-45.0)
Marion- Turner- NO (49.2-50.
Tillamook- Manzanita- NO (32.6-67.4)
Umatilla- Hermiston- YES (54.4-45.6)
Umatilla- Milton-Freewater YES- ban on recreational and medicinal (51.7-48.3)
Umatilla- Pendleton- NO to ban on Medical MJ dispensaries (39.1-60.9)
Umatilla- Pendleton- NO to ban on recreational MJ Sales (44.2-55.
Union--- City of Union- YES to Rec ban on MJ (57.9-42.1)
Union---North Powder- YES to ban (59.1-40.9)
Wasco- Maupin--- YES to Dispensary ban (52.5-47.5)
Wasco- Maupin--- YES to MJ Sales ban (58.2-41.
Washington- Gaston-  YES to blanket MJ business ban (51.5-48.5)
Washington- Sherwood- YES to blanket MJ business ban (56.5-43.5)

[publicunofficial]

You need to put a space between an "8" and a ")", otherwise it comes out as the shades emoticon.  VERY annoying.

[politicallefty]

Considering the polls, the margin in California isn't too surprising (it does seem that the undecideds voted against legalization). Once the vote has been certified, I'd like to do some swing/trend maps comparing Prop 64 against Prop 19 (failed legalization in 2010) and Prop 215 (legalization of medical marijuana in 1996). Even where it failed (including a number of staunchly pro-Trump rural counties), I'm surprised how well Prop 64 did geographically. Only five counties voted against Prop 64 by more than 10% under the current count.

Does anyone have the Atlas swing/trend colour code?


To NOVA Green, did Oregon basically take three steps forward in 2014 and now take two steps back? What rights under state law do Oregonians retain even under the most restrictive counties now?

[NOVA Green]

Considering the polls, the margin in California isn't too surprising (it does seem that the undecideds voted against legalization). Once the vote has been certified, I'd like to do some swing/trend maps comparing Prop 64 against Prop 19 (failed legalization in 2010) and Prop 215 (legalization of medical marijuana in 1996). Even where it failed (including a number of staunchly pro-Trump rural counties), I'm surprised how well Prop 64 did geographically. Only five counties voted against Prop 64 by more than 10% under the current count.

Does anyone have the Atlas swing/trend colour code?


To NOVA Green, did Oregon basically take three steps forward in 2014 and now take two steps back? What rights under state law do Oregonians retain even under the most restrictive counties now?

So basically to provide a short and succinct answer:

Question #1--- three steps forward in '14 and two steps back in '16.

Yes---- However this was a deliberate decision on the part of the authors and organizations behind the 2014 Oregon Legalization initiative.... by allowing local communities and counties to have a choice and voice in the process, it made it more comfortable for voters to support as part of a "lessons learned" from the Colorado and Washington State MJ initiatives....

Anyone can still grow herb in their home, and have a direct state licensed grower to provide them with medicine regardless of municipalities and county level bans on Oregon Liquor Control Commissioned "Weed Stores" in their counties.

2.) Under Oregon law there is no measure to overturn the will of the voters in the communities and counties that decide to ban recreational/medicinal dispensaries in their communities, or that choose to ban marijuana producing and processing businesses. Either the voters in these communities need to change their their position, or a new measure will need to be on the ballot that will prohibit local communities from banning these businesses operating in their communities....

Note that there were several communities in Oregon that overturned bans on MJ in their communities (I believe Cannon Beach and Manzanita are two on the list off the top of head, but will need to double check).

Now that being said, the most fascinating thing about Legal MJ in Oregon is that some of the most Republican Counties in the state were much more supportive, and legalization underperformed in some on the most Democratic counties in the state, and there was a drop-off in the "soccer mom" votes in places .

So here is a map that shows support for the 2014 Recreational Legalization Bill:

Color Scheme:

Yellow Green= 0.1-5.0%- Legalization
Light Green= 5.1- 10.0% Legalization
Olive Green= 10.1-15.0% Legalization
Dark Green= 15.1%+ Legalization
Yellow= 0.1-5.0% Non-Legalization
Light Pink= 5.1-10.0 % non-Legalization
Fuscia= 10.1-15.0% Non-Legalization
Dark Red= 15.1%+ Non-Legalization

So the most interesting thing to note on this map is how many counties voted FOR legalization, including some counties that typically vote Republican by large margins, and how close even the most heavily Republican counties in Western Oregon (Douglas, Linn, and Josephine voted AGAINST). Literally only two votes separated support for legalization in Josephine County, so one vote would have flipped for a tie and two for a majority...




The second map uses the Obama 2008 numbers as a baseline comparing Obama's percentage of the vote versus the YES vote for legalization, to see how many Oregonians in heavily Republican counties voted for legalization, and also the drop-off in support for legalization in heavily Democratic counties...

So similar type of color coding:

Yellow Green= +0.1-2.5% from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 YES on Legalization
Light Green= 2.6-5.0% from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 YES on Legalization
Olive Green= 5.1-10.0% from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 YES on Legalization
Dark Green= 10.1+ % from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 YES on Legalization
White= No Swing either way (Umatilla County)
Yellow= -0.1-2.5% from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 NO on Legalization
Light Pink= -2.6-5.0% from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 NO on Legalization
Fuscia= -5.1-10.0% from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 NO on Legalization


Again I just used Obama '08 numbers from a multiple candidate contest in a year with extremely high voter turnout levels, versus a midterm election year with lower turnout on the Marijuana Legalization to see how these items played.

Bottom Line: If you look at this latter map you will basically see how broad the support for marijuana legalization is in Oregon, and how heavily this measure even in an off-year election completely outperformed Obama's numbers statewide in '08, and there was a drop-off in the "soccer mom" vote in Washington and Multnomah counties that was essentially traded for a huge swap in "downstate Oregon"....

That being said the cities and counties that choose to become "dry communities", are just shooting themselves in the foot, as recreational consumers, or those with medical cards either purchase items on the black market, commute to cities and counties where they can purchase such products, regardless it deprives many poorer and rural communities that have chosen prohibition a significant loss in both tax revenue and employment, where over 3,000 direct jobs have already been created in Oregon, as well as many independent licensed contracting jobs that supply product to the dispensaries....

[politicallefty]

^That's interesting. So, the local municipal and county bans affect only sales through dispensaries, not possession or growing your own? If we consider one of the strictest regulations in place, what did Douglas County vote to forbid? Just dispensaries (both medical and recreational) or something more than that.

I'm actually not surprised that Republican counties overperformed and Democratic counties underperformed the presidential vote. Marijuana is nowhere near as polarizing as partisan politics. In California, the vote was quite different. Recreational legalization did mostly underperform Hillary in counties she won, but it vastly overperformed in counties she lost. If you look at rural Lassen County as the results currently stand, Trump's best county in the state: Trump won 73-21 (7574 votes to 2224), but Prop 64 only failed 46-54 (4839 votes to 5771). Prop 64 literally got over twice as many votes as Hillary did in that very conservative rural county in far Northern California. If I'm doing my math right, Prop 64 actually passed in CA-01!

With the current statewide margin at just under 14%, the worst county is only failing 43.6-56.4. The vote in California doesn't appear to be anywhere as polarized compared to Oregon, which is fascinating because many counties in the rural Far North (inland north of Sacramento) could probably identify quite well with Eastern Oregon. I actually made a preliminary map based on current results using the same colour code you used (so we can compare apples to apples in terms of margins):



I put asterisks on Mendocino and Trinity counties on account of not having updated their results since election night. Mendocino has most of its ballots outstanding, while Trinity has quite a few left with just a 1-vote margin against. I expect Trinity to move green and Mendocino a darker shade of green when the results are finalized (and I'll revise the map accordingly).